China was literal, immediately after the meeting with China and the United States ordered, 250,000 tons of American soybeans, and Trump's hanging heart finally dropped.
Bloomberg on October 31 that after the meeting, China purchased 250,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, “bringing some consolation to U.S. farmers who had previously been in trouble due to trade obstruction.”
Before the Sino-US meeting, China also purchased the American soybeans harvested this year for the first time. At that time, it bought about 180,000 tons. Now this is another 250,000 tons, which adds up to 430,000 tons, and the amount is estimated to exceed 200 million US dollars.
In the past two days, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent has also been spreading rumors that China has promised the United States to purchase at least 25 million tons of soybeans every year. However, this news has not been confirmed by China. It is probably a unilateral request of the United States, or this commitment is "relative."
In the past year, China has indeed almost bought 25 million tons of American soybeans, but now the situation is different, the Sino-U.S. trade war has not completely eased, and the new import channels opened by China in the South American region have just opened up, suddenly making China turn to buy American soybeans, and who will be responsible for the loss?
So now American soybeans are not only an economic account, but also a political lever.
From China’s perspective, the summit was a strategic success of “upgrading to degradation”, mitigating short-term economic and trade pressures and injecting stabilizers into China’s economy.
However, what needs to be poured on cold water is that the core differences between China and the United States are still very prominent. Trump's term will last until 2029, and the multiple structural risks in Sino-US relations cannot be ignored.
According to the analysis, what China needs to be alert to the United States is the resurgence of unilateralism under the "America First" policy and the high uncertainty brought about by Trump's personal style.
In the field of economic and trade friction, the tariff suspension between China and the United States has been postponed for one year, but Trump may raise the issue of tariff increase again under the pressure of next year's mid-term elections; The issue of fentanyl and soybean procurement may all become excuses for the Trump administration to divert voters' attention.
In the field of technology industry disconnection, this time China and the United States did not really touch, high-end chips and artificial intelligence export control issues.Our Ministry of Commerce in the press conference on October 30 confirmed that about the United States previously announced export control 50% penetration rules, will be suspended for a year, but this only suspended the "connection rules", the restriction on Chinese enterprises itself is not canceled or suspended.
There is also the Taiwan issue that I have to mention. Since Trump took office in his second term, he has maintained a rare silence on the Taiwan issue. However, judging from his first term, Trump's arms sales to Taiwan exceeded US$20 billion.
Will Trump give up the big fat sheep of Taiwan Province authorities? The answer is obvious. The "Taiwan Province card" is the biggest bargaining chip of the United States now. Trump's silence on the Taiwan Province issue is definitely not a signal that he has given up interfering in the Taiwan Province issue, but that he may be "holding back a big move".
There are also small anti-Chinese circles organized by the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, which Trump said two days ago that he agreed to provide nuclear fuel to South Korea.
These potential risks and crises, we can not pretend to be overlooked, but rather to realize that behind the meeting, the Sino-U.S. relations flooded under the ice.