Trump's trip to Asia is coming to an end, but he has sent a "big gift" to South Korea. On October 30, he announced on social media: Approval for South Korea to build nuclear-powered submarines, and share the highly secretive nuclear technology of the United States. This decision breaks the decades-long policy inertia of the United States not to transfer nuclear submarine technology to non-nuclear-weapon states. Even its closest allies, Britain and Australia, have never received such a level of technology sharing.
The deal originated from a meeting two days ago. On October 29, Trump arrived in South Korea and met with South Korean President Lee Jae-ming at the National Gyeongju Museum in Gyeongju. During the talks, Lee Jae-ming directly requested the United States to provide nuclear fuel for nuclear-powered submarines, explaining that South Korea was not seeking nuclear weapons, but nuclear-powered submarines equipped with conventional weapons.
Gold diplomacy: Lee in Ming's carefully planned
Li Zaiming made adequate preparations for this meeting. He wore a custom-made gold tie that echoed Trump's preferred gold and symbolized the "golden future of the Korea-US alliance." The lunch ended with a "golden cake" dessert, and the entire venue was glittering with gold.
The gift link is carefully designed. Lee Jae-myung presented Trump with a replica of the golden crown of Silla, a national treasure of South Korea, and the Grand Medal of Hibiscus. This golden crown is derived from the cultural relics of Tianma Tomb of Silla Dynasty. It is beautifully designed, highlighting the heavy sense of thousands of years of history, and is right in the hands of Trump's preference to be "praised as king".
Trump did not hide his love for these gifts and even eagerly forwarded the video of his own crown. South Korean team accurately grabs Trump’s obsession with power symbols, which gave Lee Jae-myung a favorable position in subsequent negotiations.
Compared to the golden atmosphere of the talks, the actual negotiations are also a “golden deal”. South Korea agrees to pay $350 billion in exchange for tariff reliefIt will also purchase large amounts of US oil and natural gas.
According to the “War Zone” website, the South Korean Navy has one of the most advanced conventional submarine forces in East Asia, including 12 “Zhang Guard” class, 9 “Sun Yuan 1” class and 3 “Island Mountain Anchangior” class submarines.
However, these conventional submarines have limited endurance and need to surface regularly to charge, which greatly limits their combat radius. Nuclear-powered submarines can be submerged for months, can greatly expand the scope of activities of the South Korean Navy.
Trump bluntly compared on social media: "I have approved them to build nuclear-powered submarines, not the older diesel-powered submarines they now have with relatively poor maneuverability." He added that South Korea will build its nuclear-powered submarines at the Philadelphia Shipyard in the United States, which was acquired by South Korea's Hanwha Group last year.
During the talks, Li Zai-ming emphasized to Trump that after South Korea obtains nuclear-powered submarines, it can assist the United States in regional activities and help monitor the movements of submarines in China and North Korea. He said this will reduce the pressure on the US military to assist in defense and modernize the South Korea-US alliance relationship.
U.S. nuclear submarine technology is widely regarded as one of the most sensitive and closely protected technologies in the militaryPreviously, only Britain and Australia were authorized to use U.S. nuclear submarine technology, and even the recently announced nuclear submarine agreement with Britain does not include the terms of U.S. direct transfer of technology.
According to the Associated Press, building nuclear-powered submarines belongs to the national sovereignty, but because it involves revising the Korea-U.S. Atomic Energy Agreement and requires the United States to provide core technology and high-enriched uranium fuels, Trump used the term "approval".
The current Korea-US Atomic Energy Agreement is valid until 2035, which stipulates that South Korea must obtain the consent of the United States to enrich uranium with an abundance of less than 20%, and cannot reprocess spent fuel. Lee Jae-myung hopes that Trump will instruct relevant departments to speed up the negotiation process on issues such as spent fuel reprocessing and uranium enrichment.
South Korea's Defense Minister Angueb said at a congressional hearing that South Korea has been actively developing vessels with small nuclear reactors, and is expected to be practical within 10 years.
Targeting China: South Korea's Strategic Extension
Lee Jae-ming bluntly pointed out during the talks that one of South Korea's goals in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines is to "track the movements of China and North Korea." this statement Directly extend South Korea’s defense radius from the Korean Peninsula to the Western Pacific, touching China's strategic interests.
After possessing nuclear-powered submarines, the South Korean Navy will be able to more effectively monitor Chinese submarine activities in the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan.These waters are important passageways for Chinese nuclear submarines into the Pacific Ocean, and the joining of South Korean forces will increase the complexity of Chinese submarine operations.
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiangkun said at a routine press conference on October 30 that China was aware of the situation and hoped that the two sides will effectively fulfill their nuclear non-proliferation obligations and promote regional peace and stability.
South Korea's pursuit of nuclear submarines should be seen as a signal for its further march into the "blue water" waters. Although South Korea's active conventional submarine force is strong enough, nuclear-powered submarines will enable South Korea to have true ocean-going combat capabilities and change the underwater power pattern in Northeast Asia.
Trump's decision to approve South Korea's construction of a nuclear submarine immediately sparked regional concern.Robert York, director of regional affairs of the Honolulu Pacific Forum, who interviewed the U.S. "Breakthrough Defense" website, said South Korea's decision to build a nuclear submarine "is unlikely to satisfy its neighbors."
Jenny Tang, an expert on South Korea at the Stimson Center, an American think tank, pointed out on social media that South Korea's move "cannot improve the stability of surrounding areas". These concerns are not unreasonable because This decision could trigger a regional arms race。
The most direct reaction may come from North Korea. North Korea has said that "nuclear submarines are the guarantee of the right to survive", and if South Korea obtains the equipment, Pyongyang will announce the resumption of nuclear submarine research and development and even conduct a seventh nuclear test.
Japan may also react to this. Although Japan is currently restricted by the pacifist constitution, South Korea's acquisition of nuclear submarine technology may stimulate Japan to seek similar capabilities and further aggravate the regional underwater arms race.
Practical Challenges: Distance from Agreement to Reality
Despite Trump's high-profile announcement, South Korea's nuclear submarines still face many obstacles from agreement to physical objectsFirst, the current facilities at the Philadelphia Shipyard do not have the capacity to handle nuclear materials or build military ships. The complete renovation of the facility and the introduction of skilled workers will take a lot of time and money.
The operating cost of nuclear submarines is extremely high, and South Korea needs to invest billions of dollars every year, which is a heavy burden for South Korea, whose economic growth is slowing down. Considering that South Korea's conventional submarine force in active service is strong enough, the actual strategic value of the country's pursuit of nuclear submarines is doubtful.
South Korea's waters are narrow, the average water depth of the Yellow Sea is only 44 meters, and the long-haul advantage of nuclear submarines is difficult to play, but may become targets for the Chinese anti-submarine network.
According to the South Korean Defense Minister, South Korea has been actively developing ships with small nuclear reactors, which is expected to be practical within 10 years.This means that even if the United States provides nuclear fuel, South Korea still needs to solve the problem of integrating reactors and submarines on its own, and the technical challenges cannot be underestimated.
In the coming months, South Korea and the United States will hold consultations on the details of technology transfer, but it can be assured that the underwater pattern in Northeast Asia will change as a result of the deal. North Korea may accelerate nuclear weapons development in response to the threat, and Japan may also seek similar technologies, and a new underwater arms race is already on the verge.
Lee may think he has won a diplomatic victory, but The real cost of this deal will be paid by regional stability。 When Trump left Seoul wearing a golden crown, what he left behind was not only a paper agreement, but also a lead to ignite the peninsula.