Call for gold and withdraw troops! a year off
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Yesterday, everyone’s attention was actually in the Ministry of Commerce press release after the closure, this Malaysian Kuala Lumpur negotiations also finally got the rules, mainly in three aspects, the first 24% tariff imposed by the United States on China will be suspended for a year, while reducing 20% of the Fentanyl tariff to 10%, the second US suspended export controls announced on September 29 50% penetration rule for a year. The third also suspended the 301 investigation on the maritime logistics shipbuilding industry.
So this announcement seems to be slightly lower than market expectations, first yesterday the rumor was that the Fentanyl tariff was completely cancelled, that is, 20% down, but in the end it actually dropped only 10%, second probably thought after four rounds of negotiations, China and the United States should at least be able to set a basic framework, but as a result, it is still a mid-term break. There is no conclusive solution. Third, we are most concerned about several key issues, no one said in the announcement. So overall, it is still a delay strategy, and the outcome of the previous negotiations seems to be no different. Just this delay a little bit, give a year buffer period. So why can both sides accept such a plan?
From our point of view, I feel that the advantage is in me, the time is in favor of me, in several key areas, we are now making technological breakthroughs, and the momentum is good. Stable foreign trade basic plate, is conducive to our domestic economic transformation, high-quality development. Moreover, the delay conditions are becoming better and better, over time, the U.S. playable cards will become less and less, our advantage in the negotiations will become more and more obvious. So can be delayed as much as possible, this is clearly a strategic thinking of the lasting war. And next year's U.S. midterm elections have great uncertainty, once Trump loses any of the two chambers, he may not do anything in the next two years, then our negotiation code will become more.
Judging from the situation in the United States, he should have an urgent need for rare earths now. It is estimated that there may be plans for military strikes or local wars in the near future. At the same time, domestic consortia are putting great pressure on him, so when we play After the card of rare earths, the eyes of the United States basically became clear and its attitude completely changed. Trump needs this year to serve as a strategic buffer for himself. For him, he must first settle inside. Next year's mid-term elections are more important than the game between China and the United States, or the game between China and the United States is a slow variable, but the struggle between the two parties is life and death. Therefore, he can completely accept the delay, and it takes just one year until his mid-term election is basically settled. He also needs a stable electoral environment.
In addition, from both sides, the contradiction is too much, it is not easy to reach a consensus, the first contradiction is the game of manufacturing power, the same financial consumption power, the second contradiction is the global leader, the third contradiction is the future who is the technological hegemony, who will lead the scientific and technological revolution. the fourth contradiction is geopolitical, this is not too much to say. so for China is already a big bang, the future is running the world first. and the United States is not able to accept to be the world's second if he does not retain the first throne, it may collapse instantly. Once the dollar loses the global monetary status, the $38 trillion debt will instantly become foreign debt, his federation will even split.
And China is not going back, you can no longer be the factory of the world now, you must cross the middle-income trap. The future to become developed countries is our must-going path. Once we lose growth, domestic contradictions will explode. so both sides have no way back now. so we can only move forward.
The key to winning now is actually that it is our chip semiconductor industry first comprehensive breakthrough, or the United States first to solve the problem of rare-earth production, these two industrial chains will probably take 5 years to 10 years of time. depending on who the domestic organization mobilization capacity is stronger, so than the internal power and the national system, in fact, the weight has been determined. on the capacity to concentrate forces to do major things, no country can be stronger than us. so although it is only a year of cessation of war, there is no move to exterminate the enemy, but in fact the pace of victory has greatly inclined to us.