After four years of conflict with Russia and Ukraine, there was finally a smell of a "fire-fire" on October 28, when the Dutch Foreign Minister had just left Kiev, Zelensky said: “Ukraine is ready for peace talks, but it does not withdraw its troops or go to Russia and Belarus to talk.”
As soon as these words came out, people were dumbfounded. You know, a few months ago, Zelensky was still saying that "negotiation is surrender". Why did he suddenly let go?
Combined with the recent movements in the United States and the mysterious operations of European countries, I suddenly reacted: I'm afraid the direction of this war situation is really going to change.
The US signal turns around: from "blood transfusion" to "forced talk"
Zelensky suddenly dared to talk about peace for one core reason: he finally waited for a clear signal from the US. But this signal was not "continuing aid", but "should sit down and talk," and even "should talk."
According to the Financial Times, Trump and Zelensky had a "very tense" conversation at the White House last Friday. Trump urged Zelensky to agree to Russia's ceasefire conditions and hand over Donbass, otherwise Ken may be "destroyed" by Russia.
Even worse, the U.S. has begun discussions about “the complete cessation of modern weapons supplies to Kiev” on the grounds of “the help as a lever, forcing Ukraine to negotiate”.This trick can be said to hit Zelensky’s seven inches.We all know that the main equipment of the Ukrainian army is all U.S.-made weapons, from pistol missiles to Hamas rocket cannons, without U.S. supplies, the front line could not last for three months.
What's more interesting is that Trump himself personally put pressure on Zelensky to talk to Russia as soon as possible to get a result. The United States even gave a "thoughtful" plan: using the current front line as the boundary, the Donbas region will be divided, and Russia and Ukraine will withdraw their troops from each other. This plan is obviously to allow Ukraine to "cede territory and seek peace", which is completely contrary to what Zelensky has been calling for to "maintain territorial integrity".
Then why did the United States suddenly change its mind? The root cause is still "interest".
The first is the money issue, which has spent hundreds of billions of dollars in recent years, and the United States has long had an opinion, especially the Trump team has been advocating "America priority" and does not want to waste money for Ukraine.
There is also a reason that cannot be explicitly explained: the longer Russia is delayed, the harder Europe’s energy dependence on Russia will be cut, which is not in the strategic interests of the United States.
Europe’s “hypocrisy”: screaming the loudest, doing the lowest
Why is Europe the "greatest sinner" of delaying war?
As the two pillars of the European Union, Germany and France initially shouted the slogan of "aiding Ukraine and resisting Russia" louder than anyone else, but when it came time to pay real money and send weapons and equipment, they began to dawdle.
Germany's military spending accounts for about 2% of GDP, which is still the NATO's lowest standard line, and it is said that the Kongo target has not been exceeded, it is not at all "to do its best" in the case of aid tanks, Ukraine from 2023, the German side for a while said "to evaluate the situation", for a while said "fear of aggravating conflict", hard life delayed the long half of the year to send leopard 2 tanks past.
What's even more ironic is that the German Defense Minister still shouts every day that "we can't always rely on the United States", but he shouts, but he fails to keep up with his actions at all. The weapons on the aid list have either shrunk or delayed, which is completely different from the "firm support" he says.
In the year 2024, Orban blocked the EU’s funding program at least three times, and each time other countries had to give him a “benefit” in order to help him.
Most importantly, the "half-hearted" aid of Europe is just stuck at the embarrassing point of "not winning nor losing."Giving weapons enough for Ukraine to hold the front, but not enough for it to really counteract; giving money enough for soldiers to eat, but not enough to rebuild infrastructure.
On August 30, 2025, White House officials couldn't help it anymore and directly and publicly accused some European leaders of "prolonging the war"; On September 24th, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also said that "Europe and Ukraine have prolonged the war together".
I think that Europe’s problem is essentially “too heavy and too small” because, on the one hand, it wants to weaken Russia with Ukraine and, on the other hand, it fears to pay too much for itself.
And wanting to be good people and afraid of losing, so that Europe is always unable to form a real aid unity.
The finale is coming? See the three keys clearly
My answer is: it is likely that Russia will enter the phase of ceasefire negotiations in the next six months or a year, but a real “peace” may be a long time.
A month ago, Putin shouted Zelensky, hoping to go to Russia to negotiate, and Putin seemed to give a step further.
Why did Zelensky not want to go to Russia for negotiations?
More interestingly, Zelensky recently also thought of a "distorted trick", calling for Trump to put pressure on China, let China force Russia to cease the fire. This is unreliable, and not to say that China and the United States just reached a preliminary consensus on trade, Trump is not possible for Ukraine to undermine the relationship with China, but to say that China-Russia cooperation is based on mutual benefit and not who can pressure to disintegrate.
Of course, the most important is Putin’s bottom line.
Now Russia's attitude is clear: recognize the status quo, especially the control of the Donbas region. Winter is approaching, and the Russian army has begun air strikes on Ukraine's power network again. Ukraine's energy supply is already tight, and winter will only be more difficult.
There is a high probability that Russia will take advantage of this advantage to open its mouth at the negotiating table, not only for Donbass, but also for more security commitments, such as "Ukraine will not join NATO."
In summary, the general direction of the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire is basically determined, but the process will not go smoothly.Zelensky will repeatedly trickle on the "cutting ground" issue, Europe will continue to "support in the mouth, slow action", Russia will steadily and steadily take advantage, and the United States will be behind the scroll, forcing all parties to reach an agreement as soon as possible.
Finally, I would like to say that there are no real winners in this conflict. Ukraine has lost territory, Russia has been sanctioned, Europe has consumed the economy, and only ordinary people have borne the heaviest cost.