The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
Preliminary
Using a gift of 600 billion yuan in exchange for the United States '"promise" to South Korea to build a nuclear submarine, Li Zai-ming can be said to have "burned his bridges" in order to deal with the North Korean threat.
However, the most mistaken thing he did was to “take pleasure” of the United States, in fact, to pull up China, in the words, to use nuclear submarines to track China.
In this case, what is Li Zaiming's consideration? And how will the United States make a decision on South Korea's "request"?
East Asia has always been called the "monster house", for the simple reason, both in the economic and military sphere, there is a very strong "bottom line".
Economically, the share of Asia’s overall economy this year will continue to rise by 0.5 percentage points from 48.1% last year, with East Asia contributing more than half.
Military and not to say, China is now "far ahead" in many fields such as fighter jets and unmanned systems, and other countries are not too far off.
For example, Japan's self-defense forces are at the forefront of the world, and North Korea itself hasined a million-level permanent army and has nuclear strike capabilities.
To put it bluntly, if you pull out any country from East Asia casually, I'm afraid it can become a "bully" in Europe. Nowadays, the "monster room" is going to be upgraded again.
On the 29th, during the meeting between Trump and South Korean President, he received a heavy "request". South Korean President Lee Jae-myung openly proposed that he had approved South Korea to build nuclear-powered submarines, but the lack of fuel needed the "help" of the United States.
In fact, the idea of South Korea's "nuclear possession" has long since, since decades ago, South Korea has tried several times to engage in the "nuclear program", but the United States has repeatedly "stopped" three times.
The most recent one was at the beginning of Trump's inauguration this year, when South Korea's then Foreign Minister Cho Dui-yeol Public indicationsThe United States and South Korea need ways to counter North Korea's nuclear threat.
Unexpectedly, a few days later, the U.S. Department of Energy directly listed South Korea as a "sensitive country", shattering South Korea's hopes of "supporting nuclear weapons."
The next day, the United States directly issued a letter approving South Korea's nuclear submarine construction plan, because "North Korea is doing that too."
From a factual point of view, the U.S. claim does indeed have some reason.
Although the North has already had a tactical nuclear submarine in 2023, the "King Yuan Hero" actually can only be considered a mixture of conventional powered submarines carrying nuclear missiles.
In the first half of this year, however, this affair encountered unusual changes, and in March, North Korea revealed a picture of the construction of a new submarine.
The submarine isly likely to be a nuclear submarine, as Russia has supplied North Korea with core components for two to three nuclear submarines, undoubtedly making a very big technological upgrade to North Korea.
In addition, North Korea is also continuing to "progress" in the whole field of nuclear deterrence, and at the North Korean parade earlier this month directly showed a new type of intercontinental missile called "Mars-20", and called it the "most powerful" nuclear weapon.
Especially on the eve of Trump's arrival in South Korea, North Korea tested a strategic cruise missile, several missiles after more than two hours of scheduled orbit flight, precisely hit the target.
Park Zhengtian, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the DPRK, publicly stated: North Korea is just to show the enemy what we have to do.
Given that North Korea has listed South Korea as an "enemy" and written it into its constitution, it is not too much for Lee Jae-ming to feel nervous now. However, the United States agreed to South Korea to build submarines not only because of this, but also because of two major factors.
First is Korea. “Give too much.”It is that in order to obtain the consent of the United States, South Korea's nuclear submarines chose to be built directly in the United States, and paid for the shipbuilding fee of 150 billion.
In addition, Lee Jae-myung also decided to spend US $150 billion to invest in semiconductors in the United States and purchase US energy at a higher price than the market price, with a total value of more than US $600 billion.
For the United States, whose debt has increased by one trillion dollars in two months, this is undoubtedly a "timely assistance", and this gift package just hits Trump's heart.
In recent months, Trump has repeatedly referred to Europe’s need to reduce Russian energy purchases, not only because of the “standpoint issue” in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but also because Russia is robbing American business.
In addition, after China tightened rare-earth controls this month, the United States also realized that the semiconductor industry continues to develop, and South Korea's investment can be called "a miraculous fortune."
Most importantly, the United States previously introduced "port charges" to China, and not to say how China countered, the US approach is to want to curb the development of China's shipping industry and revitalize its own shipbuilding industry.
It is Japan and South Korea that can "wrestle" with China in this field. During Trump's visit to Japan on the 28th, Japan already received a clear statement that it would establish a "Japan-US Shipbuilding Working Group" to strengthen the shipbuilding industry of the two countries.
It is worth noting that Philadelphia Shipyard, the shipyard designated for this nuclear submarine, has actually been acquired by South Korea's "Hanwha Marine" company.
The company made it clear in August that it would build LNG carriers and modules for warships here, but the long-term goal is to produce naval ships.
Undoubtedly, this place has become a key location of the US-South Korea military alliance, and it has also become an important part of the US "Asia-Pacific strategy", for which China has long been prepared.
On October 14, China officially imposed "port charges" on U.S.-related ships, both in terms of time and methods, and in the process of counteraction, its primary focus was on "restrictions" on the Hunan Sea.
Why? it is that the Hunan Ocean has been helping the United States, supporting U.S. investigation activities, and jeopardizing China’s sovereignty and interests.
However, this time Li Zai-ming also took this opportunity to put forward a "new point of view." He explained the role of wanting to build a nuclear submarine: South Korea wants to "help the United States" track China and North Korea.
According to expert analysis, South Korea clearly announced its weapons program, but mentioned other countries. This "honor" used to be only available to North Korea, and this joining China must have its "purpose".
Subsequently, the Korean media "Daily Economy" directly exposed Lee Jae-myung's "old background", believing that what he did was inappropriate was to provide a "vote certificate" for the United States' hope to contain China through the "Indo-Pacific strategy"?
When it comes to this, we have to mention a similar Ocus Plan. During the Biden era, the United States made two commitments to Australia through the Ocus Plan.
The first is that the United States and Australia want to jointly produce nuclear-powered submarines, followed by 2030, the United States will directly sell three nuclear submarines to Australia, enhancing Australia's nuclear power.
Although this matter was once considered to be "cold" due to the change of the US government at this time, as a result, after the meeting between the US Secretary of State and the Australian Foreign Minister in July, this matter stabilized again.
According to an official of an AUKUS member state, as long as there are no major changes, the project will continue to move forward.
If combined with what South Korea may possess nuclear submarines, in the Asia-Pacific region, China will be surrounded by more and more “nuclear-holding nations.”
However, for South Korea, China had already "warned" in August that a healthy, stable and continuously deepening China-South Korea relationship is in the fundamental interests of the two peoples.
Li also said that although in the US-Korean relations, how to handle the relationship with China is somewhat "subtle", in fact, South Korea can not "reject" China.
So what to do next, I'm afraid Li Zaiming really has to think about it.
References:
South Korean-U.S. tariffs specified, Trump approved South Korea to build nuclear-powered submarines in the United States
Observer. com "South Korea Announces its Intent to Build Nuclear Submarines for the First Time: Request the United States to Provide Nuclear Fuel, Otherwise, it will be Difficult to Track China and North Korea"