U.S. President Trump's special plane landed at Seoul's Incheon Airport. The third stop of his Asian tour was South Korea. At first, no one thought that the U.S. -South Korea talks would cause much trouble. After all, Malaysia and Japan did not make any big moves against China in the first two stops.
But who could have imagined that just a day later, Trump’s personal content on social media directly blasted the Asian-Pacific public opinion.
He said that the United States agreed to let South Korea build nuclear-powered submarines and had to help provide nuclear fuel; South Korea has to pay more than 600 billion US dollars, of which 350 billion is direct investment, 150 billion is invested in American shipyards, and 150 billion is invested in American semiconductors. It has to buy American oil and gas at a price 10 to 20 points higher than the market price.
This is not cooperation. It is more like South Korea exchanging real money for a ticket to an "underwater killer". Why does South Korea have to engage in nuclear submarines? Originally, I thought I was simply afraid of North Korea, but later I found out that it was not that simple.
The South Korean Navy now has 18 diesel-electric submarines, which can last for only two weeks and have to float up every few days to recharge. In complex sea areas like the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, it is unrealistic to keep an eye on Chinese and North Korean submarines for a long time.
Li in the Ming administration took "to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat" as the reason, it can be seen by everyone, their goal has always been China, before the South Korean conservatives have always shouted "independent defense", now thanks to the opportunity of Trump to perform, it is to promote this matter into their own governing results.
More interesting is Lee's game-playing method, he knew that Trump was in a hurry to sign a trade agreement with South Korea, and deliberately pulled off his mouth, and the previous days also publicly said that "the US-Korean trade problem has not been solved."
In this way, he is using trade negotiations as a bargaining chip to force Trump to make concessions on nuclear submarines.
In contrast, Japanese Prime Minister sanae takaichi was not so lucky. When Trump visited Japan, he looked enthusiastic, but Japan didn't get any substantial benefits, and even the rare earth cooperation agreement was looked down upon by the outside world.
But the signing of this agreement, the trouble will be bigger, it is clear that the threat to China is even more serious than the Thad incident of the year, nuclear submarines do not need to float frequently, can be expected in the Yellow Sea and the East Sea, equal to installing a "monitor" at our doorstep.
Not to mention that the U.S. had nuclear submarines in Japan and Guam, plus the nuclear submarines Australia is going to do through AUKUS, China's eastern outlet, almost surrounded, which will also disrupt the balance of the whole of Northeast Asia.
North Korea said before that it wanted to build nuclear-powered submarines. If South Korea does so, it will definitely force North Korea to speed up, and Japan will not be idle. Takaichi sanae didn't get any benefits this time, and maybe next time he will ask the United States to deploy nuclear submarines in Okinawa.
Russia will not sit down either way, its Pacific fleet has increased its nuclear submarine patrol and later deployed more advanced submarines in the Far East, afraid that sooner or later.
I originally wanted to think that the matter between the United States and South Korea was just bilateral cooperation, but later discovered that it also involved nuclear proliferation risks.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons clearly limits the proliferation of nuclear technology, but the United States gives nuclear fuel to South Korea, is this not a bad idea for other countries?
There is no doubt that it is not enough to rely on protest alone, first of all, to make this clear internationally, joint Russia in the United Nations Security Council to submit proposals, to reveal the U.S. dual objectives, on the one hand to prevent Iran from engaging in nuclear, and on the other hand to deliver nuclear submarine technology to South Korea.
Then we must keep up with our own strength. We don't want to engage in an arms race, but we must not lose the technology we should have. If the Type 096 nuclear submarine can be put into service early, and its silence and depth of diving can be improved, we can offset some of the pressure.
There must also be economic countermeasures. South Korean semiconductors rely on the Chinese market. Let's accelerate domestic substitution, such as the mass production of chips from Yangtze Memory, which can also allow them to weigh it.
Trump's trip to Asia, except to get some benefits in South Korea, elsewhere did not go well, Malaysia just sent him away, signed a trade upgrading agreement with China, China and ASEAN cooperation is even closer.
It is unclear whether he was in a hurry because of this, only on the nuclear submarine to give to South Korea, let alone the U.S. Defense Minister is still in Asia, and clearly also came to China.
From this point of view, the move by the United States and South Korea is essentially because the United States wants to contain the rise of China, and South Korea wants to use the United States 'strength to become a regional military power.
But the idea was so crazy that Northeast Asia was called the "monster room", and Korea with a nuclear submarine would only be more dangerous.
It is not wise that they do not realize that China can not be crushed by deterrence, our naval power is already 10 times that of South Korea, as long as we keep pace and make technological breakthroughs, whether it is a blockade of the island chain or an arms race, can not crush our peaceful rise.
The stability of the Asia-Pacific depends on cooperation, not on weapons. South Korea exchanged 600 billion for nuclear submarines, which seemed to have gained face, but in fact it dragged itself into greater risks.
What China has to do is maintain its strategic orientation, use its strength to safeguard its own security, and give more space to regional peace.