Germany's operation is confusing. According to reports, German Foreign Minister Waldfur originally planned to leave for his first official visit to China this month, but before his visit to China, he suddenly announced the cancellation. Nagel, president of the Bundesbank, said for a while that he would "tough retaliate against China" and for a while that he "wanted to find an opportunity to talk".
Should we eat soft but not tough, or should we eat hard but not soft?
What do you think of the words of the president of the Bundesbank?
On October 24th, a report by Bloomberg attracted global attention: Nagel, president of the Bundesbank and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, made malicious remarks to the guests at the Global Dialogue Conference in Berlin: "If in the end we have to take revenge, then we have to be tough and dare to make bold decisions."
This made people stunned. After all, Germany is the "locomotive" of the European economy, and the statement of its central bank governor has always been regarded as a policy vane.
Interestingly, the voice was still down, and Nagel said: "It's best to reach an agreement, now there's still time to resolve it."
This difference between the first second sword and the second second to seek dialogue is by no means a simple "psychological battle", I cleared three key reasons.
1. Malicious words are "political performances" for the inside.
Since the Merz administration came to power, its China policy has been divided. After all, as the governor of the central bank, he must not only consider the actual needs of the industry, but also cannot completely ignore the political correctness of politics.
2. "Bluff" with insufficient confidence
Nagel dared to say that the "dry vote big", is nothing but the fight for the EU "with four hundred and fifty million people, is a strong economy", but the reality is that the EU economy has long been hit. In December 2024, the German manufacturing PMI was only 42.5, France is lower to 41.9, the entire euro area manufacturing PMI has been staying in the shrinkage zone for more than 45 months in a row, under this state of "revenge", no different than a break of life.
3. "Temptation on the fence" under the game between the United States and Europe
In recent years, Europe has called for "strategic independence", but in fact it has fallen deeper and deeper into the quagmire of dependence on the United States: the United States has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum and demanded amendments to the Digital Services Act, and Europe can only back down step by step. Under such circumstances, showing strength to China is, to some extent, a "certificate of vote" for the United States. To put it bluntly, Europe wants to keep the Chinese market without offending the United States. This mentality of "pleasing both ends" has created Nagel's contradictory words and deeds of "fighting and talking".
Talk about it, you have to talk about it, you have to fight, you have to figure out the price first.
In the face of the repeated jump in Europe, China's attitude has been clear: maintain rational communication, but stick to the bottom line of the principle. On October 21, the Minister of Commerce Wang Ventao and the EU Trade Commissioner made it clear that China has always provided EU companies with facilities for approval and compliance applications can be passed.
But many European politicians seem to misread this rationality.They think that China "can not be separated from the European market", and even hype "China needs Europe, more than Europe needs China".This perception is simply reversed, and not to say that China has the world's most complete industrial system, looking at the market size, China's 1.4 billion population consumption market, is deep-stagnant Europe can easily give up? The German automobile giant BMW, Volkswagen last year, the share of sales in China is more than 30%, if the cooperation is seriously discontinued, the performance of these enterprises will be directly crushed.
More importantly, China's export control is completely "according to the rules". The control of rare earths, semiconductor materials and other materials is in line with international practices, and the purpose is to safeguard national security, rather than targeting specific countries. In the past, Europe relied on low-priced rare earths to support its manufacturing industry, and its life was comfortable. Now that China acts according to the rules, they can't stand it. This logic of "only state officials are allowed to set fire" is simply untenable.
Germany's manufacturing PMI at 43% low, the pillar industry of automotive, machinery and other underpinnings are hit by high energy costs and increased international competition, and these industries can not be separated from China's rare lands and markets.
Statistics show that 80% of the rare earth processed products needed for new energy vehicles in Europe depend on Chinese supplies. If the supply is really cut off, Europe's green transformation plan will directly be stranded.
I have always believed that the essence of international games is power competition.The current Europe, the financial crisis, the energy crisis, the political division, the multiple pressure overlap, even their own problems cannot be solved, where is the bottom of the talk of "revenge"?
German cars need China’s rare earth, Chinese home appliances need Germany’s precision parts, European luxury depends on the Chinese market, and China’s new energy technology can help Europe carbon neutrality.
In addition, it has to be said that in recent years, some European politicians have frequently stepped on the line on Taiwan-related issues, and these actions have seriously undermined the basis of dialogue.
Joint EU? Europe has long been "distracted"
In the harsh words of Nagel and Macron, the idea of "united European Union pressure on China" is hidden, but the reality is that the EU has long been "dispersed in the heart", this division, destined to Europe's policy against China can only be "thunder and rain."
In terms of rare-earth control, the German automotive industry is in a hurry to jump, but some Nordic countries have no related manufacturing industry at all, of course, can not talk about "damaged", the importance of the Chinese market for Germany and France far exceeds the Eastern European countries, which makes it difficult for them to reach a consensus on the policy towards China.
In recent years, China has formed competitive advantages in rare earth processing, new energy, 5G and other fields, and is no longer the country that could only passively accept rules in the past. If Europe wants to "retaliate", it must first think clearly: Without China's rare earths, how can the new energy vehicle production line be opened? Without the Chinese market, where will the excess production capacity go?
More importantly, China has always supported European integration and the United States has always wanted to control Europe differently, and China wants to see an autonomous and strong Europe because this is in line with the multipolar trend.
In my opinion, what Europe needs to do most now is not to shout the slogan of "revenge", but to seriously reflect: Why did the economy stagnate? Why is the dependence on beauty deeper and deeper? Why did you lose strategic autonomy? Only by thinking clearly about these problems can we really find a way out. Otherwise, no matter how tough the stance is, it is just a "paper tiger".