Can you believe it? In another 40 years, India's population may be 3 times that of China!

In a recent interview with the China Economic Times, Liang Zheng Cheng said: "If we do not intervene immediately now, after 2065, we will have to face a terrifying situation."

This is not a blunder, China Net has already quoted the United Nations forecast in 2017 that India's population will peak at 17.5 billion by 2065.

China's population will peak in 2030, and then it will fall all the way. In 40 years, it is likely that there will be only one-third of India's.

In addition, in 2025, the China Statistical Yearbook just revealed that the country only gave birth to 9.54 million children last year, and the birth rate was only 6.77 ¡ë.

In the past, we always worry about "too many people", now Liang Buong Cheng said, many people panicked God: why is this population so little so quickly?

More importantly, behind this three-fold gap lies more terrible troubles than "fewer people".

Population Early Warning

Liang¡¯s warning is rooted in a group of ¡°backward¡± population curves.

According to the model of the United Nations Population Division, the peak here in China came early and fell faster.

The United Nations predicts that after China's population reaches its peak of 14.5 billion by 2030, it will begin to "free fall".

The number of births in 2025 is 9.54 million, which is 520,000 more than the previous year, but the birth rate is only 6.77 ¡ë, which is not much better than South Korea's 0.72 fertility rate.

You know, a couple must have 2.1 children to "protect their capital", and we haven't even reached half of them now.

Liang Jianzhang calculated that even if fertility is encouraged now, it will be difficult for the population to stabilize 40 years later, not to mention that the current policy is far from enough.

Looking at India again, it is rising slowly and the peak is still high.

The forecast cited by Xinhua Net shows that India's population will peak at 17.5 billion by 2065, 35 years later than China.

The key is that people's fertility rate is still on the "line", although it is also down, but it can still beined at around 2,0, just enough to replace the population.

What's even worse is the age structure. The average age in India is now only 28 years old, while China is already 38 years old.

In 40 years, there will be more elderly people than young people.

Some may think that "less people are more comfortable", but Liang Buong-Kap broke the truth.

Population is not a simple number, it is the ¡°foundation¡± of innovation and economy.

He said in the interview that the more the population, the more young people can engage in R&D and entrepreneurship, this is called the "scale effect".

If they were all old people, not only would no one work, but they would also block the way of young people.

And this three-fold gap is actually the "gap" of future competitiveness.

Why don¡¯t Chinese want to live?

The demographic ladder did not suddenly slide down, mainly everyone could not survive, could not support, and no one helped.

The first one is the ¡°money bag¡±.

The country will start to subsidize puppies under the age of 3 in 2025, 3,600 euros per year, which looks pretty real, but this only accounts for 2% of the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 years.

300 yuan per month is enough to buy how many cans of milk powder for my child?

In South Korea, subsidies for children under the age of one are paid at 5,000 yuan per month.

Therefore, the number of births in 2024 will increase positively for the first time in nine years. In comparison, our subsidy is simply a drop in the bucket. The second hurdle is the "house mountain".

Liang Xiaoping best understands the suffering of large cities, high incomes, but housing prices are higher, and most of the cost of raising children is housing loans.

He suggested that families with multiple children should be exempted from mortgage interest, the second child should be exempted by 50%, and the third child should be exempted, but now this policy has not been seen.

A lot of young people around say, "I can't even buy my own house, how dare to have a baby?"

This is not a correction, it is a real reality, after all, the first payment of a large city room, enough to feed a few children to adulthood.

The third hurdle is "no one helps".

The most headache in the family of two workers is to carry babies, ask for a babysitter a few thousand a month, and the nursing institution is more "a bed difficult."

According to data from the National Health and Health Commission in 2021, the adoption rate of children under the age of 3 in China is only 5.5%, while in developed countries it is more than 50%.

Liang Jianzhang has seen too many mothers quit their jobs and cut off their careers to take care of their children.

So if you give birth to a child, you have to lose your job, so who wants to give birth?

In this regard, the Board of Directors makes several recommendations.

The "prescription" to save the situation

First, we need to ¡°subsidize enough.¡±

South Korea raised the subsidy for infants under the age of one to 5000 yuan per month in 2024, which immediately brought about a 3.1% increase in the number of births.

Liang Jianzhang suggested that we learn from South Korea, not only increase cash subsidies, but also provide personal tax exemptions.

High-income families pay taxes on their children, and low-income families directly pay money.

"Giving money to families that raise children can both stimulate childbirth and drive consumption, one by two." he stressed in the interview, this is more expensive than doing other "new infrastructure".

Secondly, we have to solve the problem of ¡°bringing the baby.¡±

Liang Jianzhang put forward two key tips: First, build more inclusive childcare institutions, increase the enrollment rate, and allow dual employees to go to work with peace of mind.

The second is to engage in "equal maternity leave", men must also be forced to take enough leave, and the government must also supplement the labor costs of enterprises.

"Just let women take maternity leave, enterprises are even more reluctant to recruit female workers, and gender discrimination is more serious."

This word is damaged, now many companies hiring girls first ask "when to have children", do not solve this problem, who dares to live?

The most important thing is ¡°flexible office¡±.

Liang said that this trick helps professional women balance family and work.

There is no need to choose between having a baby and working, the desire for childbirth is naturally high.

conclusion

Liang¡¯s warning is never ¡°creating anxiety¡±, but stopping a truth that can¡¯t be hidden.

Population is not a slow variable. When the problem is really seen, it will be too late to save it.

The three-fold gap after 40 years is essentially piled up by the "reproductive choices" of each couple now.

The curve of the United Nations will not deceive people, and South Korea also provides an example: If enough policies are given, the willingness to have children can really be raised.

But if you also hold on to the idea of "subsidy means it", "bringing the baby is the family's own thing", let's not say the gap is three times, in the future, even the caregivers of the pensions, the nurses of hospitals may lack people.

After all, the baby born now is the one who will work 40 years later.

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