on 29 October, Pakistani Defense Minister Khwaja Ashiv said only a “small portion” of the arsenal would be needed to remove the Taliban regime from the map.。Just a few days ago, a new round of dialogue between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban in Istanbul, Turkey completely broke down. This peace negotiation, which originally had high hopes, ultimately ended in failure.
The Pakistani delegation originally hoped to ease tensions through mediation, but in the end found that the Taliban not only did not cooperate, but instead took a tough attitude and perfunctory attitude on key issues. Why did Pakistan suddenly change its attitude and issue an ultimatum for war? Why are the Taliban willing to take risks and prefer confrontation rather than compromise?
October 9, 2025, The Pakistani Air Force suddenly dispatched JF-17 fighter jets, F-16 fighter jets and "Wing Loong-2" integrated surveillance and attack drones to launch precision strikes on the hiding place of the Bata (TTP) leader in AfghanistanWhile the operation failed to fully reach its goal, it released a clear signal to the outside world that Islamabad no longer tolerates the Taliban’s “ambiguity.”
On October 11, the Afghan Taliban launched a violent attack on 25 Pakistani border posts on the Durand Line, claiming to have killed 58 Bassi soldiers.This harsh response by the Taliban has shifted the situation from “tension” overnight to “confrontation”.
October 12 Pakistan once again dispatched heavy artillery, tanks and drones to carry out high-intensity strikes on multiple Afghan military targets, claiming to have killed more than 200 Taliban and their affiliated militantsThe border conflict is the most intense military confrontation between the Ba'a since the Taliban regained power in 2021.
The fuse of the conflict is not complicated. Pakistan has long believed that the Afghan Taliban is conniving at or even sheltering TTP forces. This organization, once formed by the merger of Atta's remnants and local militants, has frequently launched attacks in Pakistan in recent years.
From 2022 to now, TTP has launched more than a thousand attacks in Pakistan, killing at least 2,500 people, including a suicide bomb attack on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project in March 2024, which killed five China engineers. The price of these blood has become the source of anger among the Pakistan people against the Taliban.
The Taliban's response made Pakistan even more angry. Even faced with ironclad evidence, the Afghan Taliban Defense Minister still publicly stated that TTP was "not a terrorist organization." In Pakistan's view, this attitude is equivalent to openly supporting terrorist activities against Pakistan.
The Pakistani government has already made it clear at the negotiating table that ATA must cut all ties with the TTP, otherwise there will be no basis for negotiation.The ATA delegation in Istanbul’s many rounds of negotiations not only avoided the issue, but continued to lead the issue to unrelated topics, and even refused to comment after submitting evidence.
On October 13, a brief ceasefire agreement was reached between Qatar and Turkey, but only two days later the conflict broke out again. On October 18, the Pakistani army launched a new precision air strike, claiming to have killed 70 terrorists.Despite the resumption of a brief ceasefire in Doha on October 19, confidence has been broken.
This time, Pakistan was really on the verge of war. For a long time, Islamabad remained relatively restrained on South Asian security issues, but this round of conflict radically changed the situation.
The root of this contradiction is not just TTP. Since the 1990s, Pakistan has supported the Taliban, hoping to establish a "pro-Pakistan regime" to check and balance India.The Inter-Services Intelligence Service (ISI) provided the Taliban with training, funding and weapons to help it take control of Kabul in 1996. Even after the Taliban regained power in 2021, the ISI director immediately went to Kabul to "congratulate" him.
But four years later, the Taliban has not only failed to stop its ties with TTP, but has gone further and further in nationalist sentiment. Refusing to recognize the Durand Line, sheltering the TTP, and promoting "Greater Pashtunism" have all made Pakistan feel threatened like never before.
On October 9, the Afghan Foreign Minister made a surprise visit to India, announced the resumption of full diplomatic relations with India, and agreed to upgrade the Indian office in Kabul to an embassy. This is regarded by Pakistan as a "strategic betrayal", which means that the regime it helped up by itself turned to India, its sworn enemy.
Defense Minister Khwaja Asif bluntly said in a television interview: " Behind the puppets in Kabul are New Delhi's operators.Although these remarks were denied by the Taliban, in Pakistan's eyes, India is trying to create a "low-intensity war" on the Western Front by supporting the Taliban, leaving Pakistan exhausted for a long time.
In the face of civil discontent, frequent terrorist attacks and ongoing border conflicts, the Pakistani government must do something to close ports such as Tolcon, Chaman and other ports, shut down 90% of Afghanistan's trade channels, directly resulting in local food prices rising 30% and a serious shortage of fuel and medicines.
The Taliban regime itself has been deeply affected by economic difficulties.Once the border trade is broken, the internal pressure on people's livelihoods is rising rapidly, and the stability of the regime is facing serious challenges.This is also one of the key goals of Pakistan's diplomatic and military "two-line strike".
The problem with the Taliban is not just a policy swing, but a complete deviation from strategic direction. Both wanting to be an "legitimate government" internationally, and not having to clear the boundaries with TTP, it is also diplomatically linked.This "three-sided pleasure" strategy, instead, makes it fall into the four-sided Chongqing.
Although China, Iran, Turkey and other countries support dialogue, they are increasingly dissatisfied with the Taliban's inaction. China has repeatedly publicly asked the Taliban to cut off ties with terrorist organizations. If the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor continues to be threatened, China may support the anti-Tajikistan armed forces in Afghanistan in the future.
Pakistan's anti-terrorism alliance is also gradually taking shape. The intelligence sharing mechanism established with China, Iran and other countries has begun to play a role. From intelligence to strike, from military suppression to economic blockade, Islamabad is implementing a complete set of compound "strangulation tactics".
If the Taliban were still immersed in the illusions of “strategic autonomy” in the past, it could soon be shattered by reality. This time, Pakistan did not really endure.Since the second half of 2025, domestic political pressure has continued to rise in Pakistan, with the economy shrinking, public discontent and terrorist attacks frequent, and the government urgently needs a strong action to stabilize the situation and public opinion.
From the point of view of the regional situation, the space of the Taliban is also constantly compressed. Saudi Arabia and Iran have called for restraint, but the United States has not explicitly intervened, but has not expressed support.
As a senior Pakistani official said: " This is not an ultimatum, but a signal to start.If the Taliban continue to take shelter in TTP, refuse to recognize the Durand line, and continue to diplomatically shake Pakistan behind their backs, the next round of strikes will no longer be a warning, but a systematic “to-Talibanization” operation.
The war may still be avoided, but this time, Pakistan is really ready. Islamabad’s patience has exhausted. If the Taliban no longer recognize the reality, the real gun-and-gun war may no longer be merely a deterrent.
Source of information:
[1]Pakistan issued a warning of "all-out war" on Minnan Network
Pakistani military sources agree to resume talks with Afghanistan