On October 24, 2025, foreign media reported that the International Criminal Court (ICC) has now formally ruled that it has jurisdiction over suspected crimes against humanity committed by former Philippine President Duterte during his tenure.

This ruling not only dismissed Duterte¡¯s claim of ¡°invalidity after the withdrawal from the Rome Statute¡± but also paved the way for the continued pursuit of its ¡°complices.¡±

With the publication of the outcome of the ruling, the domestic power pattern in the Philippines is likely to encounter a major batch.

The ICC¡¯s ruling is based primarily on Article 127(2) of the Rome Statute, which clearly states that even if a State party withdraws from the Statute, the court may still exercise the right to prosecute alleged crimes committed before the withdrawal.

After the Philippines joined the statute in 2011, the Duterte government announced its withdrawal in 2018 due to the international controversy caused by the "war on drugs", but the ICC had launched a preliminary review of relevant cases before the withdrawal came into effect.

Therefore, the ICC confirms that it has legal and ongoing review authority over suspected systematic extrajudicial executions, enforced disappearances, torture, etc. that occurred between 2011 and 2019.

In addition, Duterte's team also tried to request a suspension of the lawsuit on the grounds of "cognitive decline," but the ICC has arranged for an independent assessment by medical experts and the report is expected to be released by the end of the month.

Judging from the current situation, this defense strategy may not be effective. After the verdict was announced, the ICC accelerated its pursuit of more suspects, including key figures such as Senator De La Rosa, who once served as chief of the Philippine National Police.

In addition, Duterte¡¯s former sheriff, local law enforcement intelligence coordinator, and interest links between local governments and gang forces could also be the focus of the investigation.

The number of extrajudicial executions during Duterte¡¯s ¡°war on drugs¡± has become a focus of international concern.

According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and domestic media in the Philippines, the number of extrajudicial executions could reach more than 6,000, with most victims being ordinary residents of poor communities.

This coup not only triggered strong condemnation from the international community, but also caused far-reaching social rift in the Philippines.

At the same time, the attitude of the small Marcos government is also concerned.

Although Little Marcos did not officially announce his support for the ICC, his government did not take any measures to stop the investigation, but insteadined its vision on the basis of "respect for international mechanisms".

The political future of the Duterte family is also in trouble, especially with Duterte¡¯s daughter, Sarah Duterte, who is seen as a potential candidate for the 2028 Philippine presidential election.

However, as the Duterte case continues to advance, the Douma forces may gradually disintegrate.

The ICC¡¯s ruling could not only lead to Duterte¡¯s successive arrest, but could also significantly reduce Sarah¡¯s popular support.

The significance of the ICC decision is not only a legal breakthrough, but more likely to be a key factor in the reshaping of the domestic power pattern in the Philippines.

Southeast Asian countries are unclear about the verdict, but it is foreseeable that the event could further impact the international image of the Philippines. The United States, the European Union and other countries are more concerned about human rights issues or will use this opportunity to put more diplomatic pressure on the Philippines.

For Little Marcos, the ICC¡¯s advance is undoubtedly a great opportunity to weaken the Duma forces. After the ruling was announced, the decline of the Duma forces appeared to have been decided.

With the deepening of the investigation, it is not only likely that Douma will lose political influence, but even the possibility of retreating from the city of Davos is endangered, while the Small Marcos government can use the opportunity to consolidate power to pave the way for the future political layout.