On October 10, 2025, Israel and Hamas finalized the first phase of the ceasefire through the mediation of the United States. The agreement clearly stated that Hamas would release 50 hostages, Israel would exchange 150 Palestinian prisoners, and aid supplies would have to enter Gaza.

On the surface, it was an opportunity to breathe, the Gazans could eat more and drink, and Israel could also ease the pressure of the troops.But three weeks later, on October 28, the Israeli Air Force dropped a bomb on the Gaza Strip, and the next day, official data said more than 100 people were killed, many of them civilians.

Israel itself acknowledged this, saying that Hamas first violated the agreement, attacked Israeli soldiers and had to defend itself. Hamas naturally disobeyed, shouting Israel intentionally destroy, trying to use the opportunity to expand control.

The agreement was pushed after Trump came to power, and the Israeli cabinet approved it on October 9, and Hamas also nodded. The focus was on the phase-by-phase, the first phase of the exchange of hostages within 72 hours, the aid fleet into the Rafah port, and also to talk about the disarmament of Hamas and the post-war Gaza who manages.

According to the Israeli General Staff, Hamas militants opened fire on October 28 in northern Gaza, killing an Israeli soldier, which became a spark.The Israeli army did not wait for the United Nations or the United States to say more, fighter jets directly out, the F-35 locked targets, bombed the neighboring bases of the refugee camps of Del Baqarah and Jebaliye.

The tanks followed, the infantry cleaned up, seized some rocket bombs and tunnel gates. according to the Ministry of Health, the attack reached residential areas, the hospital was full of wounded, electricity was cut off, and the generators were hard at it.

A spokesman for the Israeli Defense Army stressed that this was a limited response, after a ceasefire was resumed, but Hamas accused it of being a pretext, and actually wanted to tear down the agreement to resume a full offensive.

Israel's move has a heavy political taste. Netanyahu is facing domestic pressure, corruption cases are plagued, and the families of hostages protest against the slow rescue every day. The far-right voice in the ruling coalition is loud, and people like Ben Gvir are clamoring every day to harden Hamas and consolidate the vote warehouse.

The 2026 general election is in place, Netanyahu said on October 18th that it is possible to run for election, at this time, come a little military operation, shift the view of the old route.

The ceasefire agreement is fragile, and the core differences are not touched: Israel wants Hamas to fully seize arms, Hamas to clear the timetable for its withdrawal and participate in governance. The result is that the agreement is implemented in half, and it is the case. U.S. Vice President Wences says the agreement is valid, Israel has the right to self-defense, but international criticism, and the UN calls for restraint.

Egypt and Qatar are busy with mediation and propose to resume the talks in November, but who believes it will work? Gaza civilians were the most unlucky. Once the agreement was broken, the number of casualties soared again. Hospitals were overloaded and doctors were in a hurry.

This is not only infighting in Gaza, but also involving the surrounding areas. In Iran, on October 19, something happened in Sistan-Baluchistan province. The local armed group Jaish al-Adl attacked tribal leaders and shot several Sunni elders. These people are in charge of local mediation and are considered low-level officials.

The attacker slipped in from the Pakistani border, transported weapons in a modified vehicle, killed the target in close quarters and ran away. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps closed roads to arrest people, confirmed that the dead included tribal leaders, and patrols in the province were strengthened.

Iranian officials did not hide anything, admitted the losses, and even directly pointed to Israeli intelligence agencies for help, providing money and technical support. A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said such cross-border actions want to disrupt Iran and weaken border controls. Sistan Province is inherently sensitive, has deep conflicts between Sunnis and Shiites, and is poor and remote. Organizations like Jaish al-Adl take advantage of it.

Israel has not responded, but there has been a precedent in history that Mossad has carried out similar assassinations against the head of Iranian nuclear scientists or agents.

Iran responded wisely. It did not directly fire at Israel, but played propaganda, strengthened the anti-Israel narrative and eased sectarian friction in the country. The Revolutionary Guards arrested some suspects, sealed off the mountains, and upgraded border security. Tribal relations in the province have been tense, Sunni communities have staged small-scale protests, and the government has been slow to respond. The Iranian President's Office stated that it would hold accountable, but the focus was on internal stability.

Linking to Gaza, when Israel attacked Hamas, it also defended against the second front of Iranian proxies. The Houthis and Hezbollah made little movement, but the timing of the Sistan attack was coincidental, just the day before the Israeli air strike.

The Iranian media linked two things, saying Israel's multi-line pressure, wants to disperse Iran's energy. Geographically, the province is facing Pakistan and Afghanistan, the strategy is at the forefront, Iran is always concerned that the separation forces are bigger.

The ceasefire agreement is always like a temporary patch, with the underlying issues-settlement expansion, Palestinian statehood, Hamas arming-left intact. The Netanyahu government insists on taking hostages first, and Hamas wants to exchange conditions and fight if the talks fail. The United States supports Israel, but Trump also wants to show off the credit of the agreement, which is embarrassing now.

The international community has an old problem of double standards, sensitive criticism of Israel, and weak implementation of United Nations resolutions. Gaza's economy has collapsed long ago, unemployment is high, reconstruction is far away, and once the ceasefire is broken, all investment is ruined. Within Iran, attacks have exacerbated sectarian divisions, and the Revolutionary Guard Corps 'resources have been scattered. They should have focused on the nuclear issue and the Gulf, but now the border has become more congested.

In the long run, this cycle will not end. Negotiations may resume in November, with the focus still on hostages and militants, but Israel will not give in, nor will Hamas.

The Iranian border is unstable, Jaish al-Adl has external reliance, the Israeli intelligence network is active, assassinations continue.The regional majority game, the United States of Israel, Iran's Hamas axis, agency war is not over.People are guilty, Gaza children cannot go to school, Iranian provinces lack water.

The fragile agreement is due to the absence of enforcement mechanism, no third-party coercion, and mutual trust, but mutual trust has long gone. Israel's security minister pushed to expand the operation, the alliance united the front, and Netanyahu stabilized his position. Iran avoids escalation, focuses on diplomatic protests, and rectifies the Revolutionary Guards internally.