Recently, the international financial and geopolitical fields have focused on ASEAN dynamics, and the Philippines has officially taken over the rotating presidency of ASEAN, a shift that has raised concern.

Meanwhile, President Marcos called for dialogue with China, hoping to clarify the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as soon as possible, but also resolutely refused to evacuate from the Reef.

What kind of strategic intention is hidden behind such a contradictory dual posture? Will Marcos have a dominant influence on the direction of the South China Sea issue by virtue of his status as the chairman of ASEAN?

This series of issues has become the focus of fierce debate in the current international financial and geopolitical fields.

On October 28, the 47th ASEAN Summit ended in Kuala Lumpur.

At the closing ceremony, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar handed over the gavel symbolizing the power of the ASEAN rotating chair to Philippine President Marcos, thus officially becoming the ASEAN rotating chair in 2026.

This means that in the next year or so, Manila will shoulder the important responsibility of coordinating ASEAN affairs and speaking on behalf of ASEAN.

After taking over the power stick, Marcos made it clear at the closing ceremony that the Philippines will make promoting negotiations on the South China Sea Code of Conduct the focus of its future work, and strive to urge ASEAN and China to make substantial progress on this key issue.

He emphasized that the more than ten years of negotiations between China and ASEAN on this issue can no longer be delayed, and he hopes to complete the formulation of the code text before 2026.

However, Marcos is well aware that the complexity of this issue is not due to technical difficulties, but to significant differences in the political perception of the South China Sea issue.

For some ASEAN countries, the South China Sea issue is not the primary concern; But for the Philippines, it is an extremely sensitive core issue.

It is not difficult to see from Marcos' speech that the Philippines is trying to find a balance between two completely different attitudes.

On the one hand, the Philippines hopes to use the ASEAN platform to continue to maintain contact with China and actively promote dialogue and cooperation between the two sides; on the other hand, the Philippines insists on its so-called "rights of sovereignty" and is resolutely reluctant to make any concessions on the issue of Yunnan Reef and Yunnan Island.

This dual attitude profoundly reflects the long-standing ambivalence of the Philippines in its South China Sea policy.

The Philippines not only hopes to achieve regional stability with the help of China's power, but also does not want to be regarded as "weak" by other countries in sovereignty disputes.

At this ASEAN Summit, Marcos used "peace, stability and cooperation" as key words.

At the same time, however, he frequently criticized China's plan to set up Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve, claiming that this plan "violated the sovereignty of the Philippines" and "violated international law".

He even cited the ruling of the 2016 South China Sea arbitration case as a basis, claiming that Yellow Island belongs to the territory of the Philippines.

But China has long made it clear that it neither accepts nor recognizes the outcome of the arbitration.

In addition, Marcos also revealed that the two sides had previously reached a "temporary memorandum of understanding" on the issue of the Reef.

With this memorandum, the Philippines was able to complete 10 rotating and supply missions on the "Madrid Mountains" warships without causing any conflict.

This shows that both sides still maintain a certain degree of control at sea.

Although Marcos refused to withdraw from Ren 'ai Reef, he also stressed his hope to resolve differences through diplomatic channels.

It can be seen that the Philippines does not want to push the dispute out of control, but at the same time retains a gesture of confrontation and reserves some space for subsequent negotiations.

In response to the Philippines¡¯ actions, China¡¯s senior officials also responded at the meeting.

The Chinese side said that China and ASEAN countries uphold common values, and equal treatment and win-win cooperation should be the main theme of regional development.

China is also willing to support ASEAN in continuing to play an active role in promoting the early conclusion of the South China Sea Code of Conduct.

From this response, it can be seen that China's remarks are a positive response to ASEAN's collective will, but also provide a tangible and realistic path for the guideline process proposed by Marcos.

In fact, since 2018, China has repeatedly reiterated its hope to promote the formulation of guidelines through consultation within the framework of the "ASEAN Way".

This "ASEAN-centered" approach is highly consistent with ASEAN's consistent position, stressing that regional issues should be solved by regional countries.

The reason China made such statements is closely related to the recent continued pressure on issues in the South China Sea by foreign forces such as the United States and Japan.

For example, while the U.S. aircraft carrier Nimitz was training in the South China Sea, a carrier-based aircraft crashed into the sea. This incident has aroused widespread attention from the international community to the U.S. military's frequent military operations in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, Japan¡¯s new prime minister, Yoshima Yoshima, responded with Marcos on the South China Sea issue and pledged to strengthen maritime security cooperation, which clearly aims to strengthen the tripartite alliance system of the United States and the Philippines.

However, ASEAN generally tends to resolve disputes through peace, cooperation and self-restraint in dealing with the South China Sea issue.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar said the South China Sea issue should be addressed jointly by ASEAN and its regional partners to avoid external interference.

He stressed that ASEAN member states and dialogue partners generally recognize the principles of international law, in particular the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and actively promote the negotiation of the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea.

This is significantly different from the Philippines 'proposition, which shows that ASEAN still maintains a relatively restrained and autonomous attitude in handling the South China Sea issue.

In such a complex context, the role of the Philippines as a rotating presidency is relatively limited.

Although Marcos tried to use the ASEAN platform to enhance his voice on issues, ASEAN member states have obvious differences in their attitudes towards the South China Sea dispute, and it is difficult to gain broad consensus through unilateral actions.

Moreover, China and ASEAN maintain a long-term framework of cooperation and stable diplomatic relations, which provides a solid foundation for peace and stability in the South China Sea region, and also greatly restricts the space for hypocrisy in the Philippines.

In the future, the direction of the South China Sea issue is still full of variables, which requires all parties to remain calm and restrained and seek proper solutions through dialogue and cooperation.