Vietnam and Indonesia, as the two pillars of ASEAN, have recently released positive initiatives in their relations with China, a pragmatic shift that is not an isolated incident, but a rational response to the complex situation in the South China Sea.

The two countries chose to deepen economic and trade military cooperation and avoid external forces borrowing the South China Sea, which directly compresses the space for Philippine-style confrontation.

The economic and trade ties between China and ASEAN are unbreakable. In the first nine months of 2025, the bilateral trade volume reached 5.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, accounting for 16.6% of China's foreign trade. ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years, and China has been ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years.

Vietnam's exports to China have surged, and Indonesia's high-speed Railway Phase 2 contract has landed.This economic link has made ASEAN countries realize that confronting China is equivalent to breaking off their own financial path.

The United States and its allies frequently operate in the South China Sea, the U.S. "Regan" aircraft carrier visits Vietnam, Japan India ships to draw, but it is difficult to change the overall situation of ASEAN. Vietnam Indonesia's response is direct to harm: prioritize China's cooperation and refuse to provoke outside the territory.

Vietnam moves the fastest and most closely.

On June 24, 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Zheng attended the Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin and met with the Prime Minister, emphasizing the implementation of high-level consensus and the promotion of economic and trade upgrading.

On August 31, he also went to Tianjin to attend the SCO summit, where the two sides concluded the railway energy agreement.Two times during the year, Wang Ming visited China, and Foreign Minister Pei Qingshan followed up, reaffirming the first diplomatic position in relations with China.

Militarily, the Vietnamese army jointly trained the first river.

On July 22, "Together with Companions 2025" was launched at Guangxi Chongqing Left Jianglong Base, with hundreds of troops mixed, topics including drone reconnaissance, real bomb shooting, joint patrol, medical rescue.

Over the course of two weeks, Vietnam learned about China's border defense experience and established a hotline mechanism to avoid friction in the northern Gulf. This is a big step further than previous naval search and rescue exercises, expanding from sea to land, mutual trust to the level of real war.

Economic trade data proves the change.

In the first eight months of 2025, Sino-Vietnamese trade exceeded US $70 billion. Vietnam undertook the transfer of photovoltaic electric vehicles, and the surplus shrank by 30%. Oil and gas in the South China Sea has shifted from confrontation to alliance, Wan'an Beach exploration has achieved data sharing, and fishing boats have mutual recognition to reduce collisions. Vietnam purchased the Hongqi-9 air defense system to replace the Russian S-300, and the equipment iteration was accelerated.

Indonesia is equally awesome.

ASEAN's first South Navy exercise in 2023 was originally scheduled to be close to the nine-dash line in North Natuna. Indonesia decisively changed it to South Natuna on the south side of the Strait of Malacca, focusing on disaster relief and avoiding politicization. In 2025, this low-key continuation, Indonesia refused the invitation of the United States and the Philippines to "South China Sea Law Enforcement Exercise" and instead hosted the COC Senior Officials Meeting.

The highlight is military trade. On October 15, Indonesian Defense Minister Shafri confirmed the purchase of 42 J-10Cs with a total value of US $9 billion. The Indonesian Air Force broke the Western monopoly for the first time. The J-10C active phased array radar and PL-15 missile have a combat radius of 1,500 kilometers, which is superior to the Su-30. The first batch of 12 2026 aircraft was delivered, 500 technicians were assembled locally and trained, and 70% of them were localized.

Navy procurement is even fiercer. During the same period, 7 second-hand 053H3/054A frigates, 3 039A submarines, 10 022 missile boats, and YJ-18 missile battalions were finalized, totaling more than 5 billion. 039A silent shallow sea ambush, 054A anti-ship and anti-submarine integration, fill the gap in the Natuna defense line. The second phase of Jakarta-Bandung Highspeed Railway and 5G cover 90% of cities, and the Sino-Indian trade is 950 billion yuan.

Vietnam and Indonesia are in sharp contrast, but point to the same logic. Vietnam emphasizes political and military integration, doubles high-level visits to China, and Lu Xun is the first; Indonesia's heavy equipment has been upgraded, the scale of the J-10 is unprecedented, and the navy has been replaced in batches. Common ground: refusing to woo the United States. Vietnam declined the additional docking of the "Reagan", and Indonesia canceled the Indo-Pacific exercise.

This progress is derived from China¡¯s strategic focus.RCEP framework, ASEAN GDP 30% relies on China¡¯s investment in the ¡°Golden Dragon¡± military exercises, ¡°Golden Dragon¡± ships visiting many countries, mutual trust embedded in the bone marrow. Vietnam from 2014 oil well confrontation, to 2025 joint development; Indonesia from 2019 fishing boat event, to 2025 military purchase blockade.

The Philippines is the only noise. Little Marcos opened four bases, the U.S. military exercises in Liu Song, reef supplies to confront. On October 24, the Philippine army said that intercepting Chinese fishing vessels "captured uranium", the video exposed to washing bottles, gloves, exposed to crops. On October 12, the Philippine official ship broke into the railway reef, the Chinese Sea warned water cannons, the Philippine ship's tail was damaged.

The domestic rebound in the Philippines is big. Former President Duterte warned of involvement in conflict and fishermen protested. Faced with pressure, Marcos Jr. adjusted and accelerated COC negotiations, and the communication between China and the Philippines was smooth. The confrontation weakened and the supply ships backed down.

It is not difficult to resolve the Philippines. ASEAN consensus has been reached, Vietnam Indonesia leads, and the Philippines is uncomfortable. Once the Philippines returns, China claims to dominate: oil and gas joint development, sustainable economic and trade channels, and mutual recognition of fishing zones.

Vietnam and Indonesia have signaled that cooperation is the only way out. Opponents, like Fei, suffer from the bitter consequences. The South China Sea has gone from dispute to win-win situation, and China's influence has been locked in all aspects from economy to military.

The overall situation has been decided, and the Philippines 'movements have become the final variable. ASEAN chose China, and foreign interference became empty talk. In the new era of stable development, the South China Sea has ushered in a century-old glory.