Recently, there has been a lot of noise in the Caribbean, and the contradiction between the United States and Venezuela has escalated again. The cause of the incident was that the Trump administration put pressure on Venezuela to crack down on drug trafficking, but everyone knew in their hearts that it was aimed at the Maduro regime. On October 23rd, Maduro publicly stated on TV that the United States wanted to rob Venezuela's oil and mineral resources, and also mentioned that China, Iran and Russia might provide military support, such as fighter jets, missiles and drones.
When it comes to this, the international pot burst, because Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, more than 300 billion barrels, the US sanctions for years, production capacity is limited, but everyone is blind to this fat meat. After Trump came to power, stressed Monroeism, that Latin America is the back yard of the United States, no one is allowed to intervene.
Let's talk about the ins and outs of this plane first. It is an IL-76TD model, registration number RA-78765, and is operated by Aviacon Zitotrans, a company sanctioned by the U.S. Department of the Treasury because of its ties to the Wagner Group. Wagner is a Russian private military company that has done a lot of work in Africa and the Middle East in the past, such as transporting troops and escorting guards. The plane took off from Russia. Instead of taking a straight line, it made a detour, first stopping in Yerevan, Armenia, then Algiers, Algeria, Rabat, Morocco, Dakar, Senegal, and finally Nouakchott, Mauritania, before flying across the Atlantic to Venezuela.
The whole trip lasted more than two days, avoiding the airspace of western countries, obviously in order not to be intercepted or monitored. The flight data is public and can be found through FlightRadar24 or something. The plane is fully loaded, weighs close to the upper limit of 50 tons, and can hold 200 people or a large amount of cargo. After landing, the ground personnel quickly unloaded the cargo, but the specific things were not announced. The American media guessed it was weapons, mercenaries or military advisers, because Wagner had done this before. In 2019, he sent hundreds of people to Venezuela to escort Maduro.
The U.S. responded quickly, the Defense News on October 28, that the aircraft was linked to the Russian military and Wagner, and the cargo was unknown, but not a good thing.The Trump administration had deployed military forces in the Caribbean Sea, and in late October sent destroyers near the Venezuelan coast, just 7 miles away, carrying cruise missiles and helicopters.
There are a total of eight Navy ships, carrying 6500 Marines and sailors, and another 3500 are on standby. The USS Ford aircraft carrier strike group was transferred from the Mediterranean Sea, including aircraft carriers, missile cruisers, destroyers and nuclear submarines, with a total force of 5000 people. F-35C fighter jets can take off at any time. B-1B bombers flew in from Guam and patrolled at low altitude to test Venezuelan air defense. The Defense Ministry said it was an anti-drug operation that destroyed seven suspected drug-carrying ships and killed 32 people, but Venezuela said it was a disguised invasion. The CIA was cleared to carry out deadly ground operations on October 15, targeting drug trafficking facilities, but may actually target top levels of the regime.
Russia has invested in Venezuela, sold more weapons, sold S-300 air defense systems, Su-30 fighters, and so on.Maduro said on October 23 that there are 5,000 Russian ground-to-air missiles deployed in key locations.
After Russia was isolated by the West, Latin America was an important position and Venezuela was a bridgehead in the southern hemisphere. This year, the two countries signed a strategic partnership treaty covering energy, military industry and political mutual assistance, and is basically a quasi-alliance. Through this kind of support, Putin retaliated against the United States 'actions in Ukraine. You do yours and I do mine. The transport plane incident is an example, distracting the United States and giving Trump headaches in both hemispheres.
Trump is now conflicted whether to fight or not. Venezuela is not a soft persimmon. It has 120,000 regular troops and 220,000 militiamen. It is trained by Russia and its officers are highly loyal. The militia system was established during the Chavez era and can quickly mobilize people to fight guerrilla warfare. The terrain is complex and there are many jungle cities, making it suitable for protracted warfare. If the United States uses only special forces or proxies, it cannot overthrow Maduro in the short term; a large-scale invasion requires a large number of troops and a high risk of casualties.
The domestic supporters of Trump are mostly economists, not war fans, overseas adventures are easy to cause divisions. After Russia intervention, the risk is higher, if the transport aircraft is carried by the Wagner soldiers, they have Ukrainian and African experience, can help Venezuela upgrade its defense. Or with air defense missiles, drones, directly threatening the U.S. fleet and aircraft. Iran may also deal, provide drones, Venezuela has been equipped. The U.S. aircraft carrier, although strong, but Kh-31 anti-ship missiles range 80 kilometers, can hit the ship.
From a broader perspective, this incident exposes the deep logic of the US-Russia game. The United States wants to maintain hegemony and contain Russia; Russia fought back asymmetrically and spoiled the situation in the American backyard. The strategic value of Latin America is not small, no less than that of Eastern Europe. When Russia gains a firm foothold, the United States will be distracted. Trump supporters want to score quickly, but the military adventure is costly, with a triple blow of military deadlock, political rebound and strategic imbalance. Congress has been notified of the bombing, but it has not moved forward. On October 27, Western tracking sources reported the arrival of Wagner logistics aircraft, suggesting a resurgence in Russian military activity. On October 29, the summary of military hot spots mentioned that the IL-76 belt carried military supplies, and the operator was sanctioned.
On Venezuela's side, Maduro stabilized the regime, called for vigilance and maintained control. Russia denies offensiveness and emphasizes the legality of cooperation. The United States continued to monitor, but it didn't cross the line. Iran and China may benefit indirectly, strengthen the anti-American front, use Venezuela as a bargaining chip, and force the United States to make concessions elsewhere. Test the bottom line of the United States and gain experience for future actions.
The signs of the U.S. decline are obvious, if Trump is tough, it is easy to fall into the dungeon. The Venezuelan army has 23 Su-30 fighters, with R-77 and R-27ER air-to-air missiles, Kh-31 anti-ship missiles. 12 Buck-M2 medium-range air defense sets, 3 S-300VM long-range battalions. Khibini electronic warheads may be up Su-30. Although few, but not zero risk to the U.S. Haririan attackers can't fight Su-30, anti-ship missiles threaten the fleet.
On the other hand, Trump made this move hastily, but when Russia interfered with the situation, it changed. Venezuelan oil is the key, and Russia uses it as leverage. The United States has low tolerance for war, and economic issues are more important. If the cargo from the transport plane is really mercenaries or weapons, Venezuela's resistance will rise to a higher level. The U.S. fleet kept its distance and observed the impact.
Putin welcomes the United States to be distracted and take advantage of it in Ukraine or elsewhere. The Venezuelan people were mobilized and paramilitary organizations were active. If Trump stops, it will be a diplomatic score; if he goes hard, the quagmire will wait. Historical experience shows that there is a high possibility of a repeat of something like that in Vietnam. Russia's deployment of Venezuela is not a temporary, long-term strategy. The two countries have deep energy cooperation and oil is exchanged for weapons. Iranian drones have entered Venezuela and have been tested. The US military has to guard against multiple threats.