The Preface:
October 30th was originally a big day for the meeting between China and the United States. It is widely believed that this meeting will show some signs of easing the relationship between the two sides. After all, the communication over the past months has continuously released a "stable" signal. However, on this day, Trump suddenly threw a "political nuclear bomb" on social media.
At the moment, America suddenly changed its face.
According to media reports, Trump announced on social media that he had signed and made public a new presidential order requiring the United States to "immediately resume nuclear weapons testing." When this sentence came out, the whole world was stunned. Because the United States has not conducted public nuclear tests for more than 30 years. Since the early 1990s, the United States has been abiding by its nuclear testing moratorium "on paper." Now Trump has torn this agreement to pieces with one word.
Trump also mentioned in his post that China's nuclear weapons forces are developing rapidly and may be able to "catch up with the United States and Russia" within five years. He also specifically emphasized that the number of nuclear weapons in the United States still ranks first in the world, while Russia ranks second, while China, although temporarily lags behind, is "at an alarming speed".
It is clear that the release of such information on the day of the China-U.S. face-to-face talks is not a coincidence. Trump wanted to borrow the light of this meeting and announce to the world that the United States should re-establish rules in the nuclear field. The problem is that this approach is not only destroying the atmosphere of China-U.S., but also shaking the balance of international security. What has not happened for more than thirty years, is now re-opened, showing that the strategic thought of the Trump administration is no longer to "maintain order", but to re-empower by creating uncertainty.
Trump's calculation: Nuclear deterrence is his trump card
Of course, some people believe that Trump's move is mainly aimed at Russia. Just a few days ago, Russia demonstrated two major military achievements in succession. The first is the successful test-firing of the Haiyan nuclear-powered cruise missile, which is known as "a weapon that can fly around the earth and then strike the U.S. mainland." The second is Putin's personal announcement that the "Poseidon" unmanned submersible has been completed. It is a very powerful underwater nuclear device with astonishing destructive power.
In the face of Russia's frequent actions, Trump felt a lot of pressure. Russia's display of "nuclear muscles" in a short period of time obviously makes the United States uneasy. Trump's character, on the other hand, is never willing to show weakness, and it is even less likely to appear "soft" under election pressure and military doubts. Therefore, he chose the most symbolic way-restarting nuclear tests.
A few days ago, Trump also said that he wanted to invite China and Russia to jointly start negotiations on "nuclear weapons reduction." He made his remarks high-sounding, but China's attitude was very clear: China's nuclear weapons quantity is far lower than that of the United States and Russia, and there is no basis for negotiation. If the United States does not cut, why should it ask others to cut? Now it seems that China's judgment is completely correct-Trump's so-called "reduction negotiations" were originally a trap.
He first spoke of "co-operation" and then suddenly announced the resumption of nuclear tests. This repeated leap-through means, to speak clearly, is "talk pressure". He wanted to make China diplomatically seem passive, so that the U.S. side to re-occupy the active position.
China's calm response: no vaccines, no packages
Trump's operation, indeed, made the world's public opinion a stir, but China's attitude is unusually cold, demanding that the United States adhere to the international consensus on the suspension of nuclear tests, and calls on all countries to jointly safeguard global strategic stability.
After all, for more than thirty years, it was the nuclear balance of China and Russia thatined the bottom line of global security. Once the United States resumed its nuclear tests, it would not only break this balance, but more likely trigger a chain reaction.
China is well aware that this game cannot be rhythmized by emotions. The nuclear issue has never been a simple arms race, but a comprehensive contest between politics and strategy. The more anxious the United States is to create anxiety through threats, the more China must stabilize its rhythm.
For a long time, China has always adhered to the principle of "limited deterrence and never taken the lead in using it." This kind of restraint is not weakness, but a kind of self-confidence. A truly powerful country does not need to prove its existence by demonstrating destructive power. On the other hand, the United States 'current actions are more like a symbol of anxiety-economic, technological, and diplomatic setbacks on multiple fronts, and can only rely on "nuclear topics" to brush its existence.
And the deeper problem is that the United States has lost the credibility of leading international rules.In the past, the United States could flag the "global security" flag to require others to comply with the rules, now itself first tear off the promise, equal to tell the world: so-called order, depends on American emotions.
Global Worry: Nuclear Shadow Again Overwhelming the World
Trump’s presidential decree, which appears to be just a document, could result in a shock of the entire international security system, a “red line” that has not been touched for more than 30 years and which, once struck, makes it difficult to look back.
This means not only that the authority of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty has been weakened, but also that the non-proliferation regime established by the international community for decades has been shaken. The most frightening thing is that once the United States really takes action, Russia will inevitably follow suit, and some regional countries may also take the opportunity to break through the original restrictions. By then, the global nuclear risk will once again rise to the highest point since the Cold War.
For China, this sudden nuclear test storm once again reminds a reality: no matter how complicated the international situation is, only by mastering its own rhythm can it be invincible. External threats will not stop, but China's choice should always be based on rationality and long-term. The real winner of this "nuclear game" is not who tries faster and who explodes louder, but who can maintain strategic focus in the turmoil.