The Nuclear Submarine Cooperation Project (AUKUS) between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia has aroused widespread concerns and dissatisfaction in the international community since its launch.
Now, US President Trump has made another jaw-dropping move, extending the tentacles of nuclear proliferation to the Korean Peninsula, which undoubtedly adds variables to the already complicated situation in Northeast Asia.
On October 30 local time, Trump posted on social platforms saying that the U.S. -South Korea military alliance has reached an unprecedented level. Based on this solid foundation, I have agreed to South Korea to carry out the construction of nuclear-powered submarines.
However, he also pointed out that the construction process must be carried out in the United States.
Just the day before, when South Korean President Lee Ming met with Trump, he made a clear request that the United States help South Korea build a nuclear submarine.
Li's reason is that South Korea's existing diesel-powered submarines are inadequate in durability and showed reluctance in tracking Chinese and North Korean submarines.
However, he stressed that South Korea expects to build attack nuclear submarines equipped with conventional weapons, rather than strategic nuclear submarines for strategic deterrence.
It is worth mentioning that during the meeting, Lee in Ming also donated a golden crown to Trump.
Faced with Lee’s request, Trump did not respond directly at the time, but instead spoke ambiguously about the past with a phrase such as “The United States expects to cooperate with South Korea in shipbuilding and joint defense.”
However, just a day later, Lee’s request was approved by Trump.
I have to say that South Korea's move this time is really bold.
In this complex and geopolitically sensitive region of Northeast Asia, South Korea came up with the idea of building a nuclear submarine.
On the other hand, the United States also showed a fearless attitude of not hesitating to get burned, and agreed to South Korea's request after only one day's consideration.
South Korea’s actions are considered bold, mainly for three reasons.
First, Li has clearly expressed his intentions to confront China and North Korea.
He emphasized that he sought to build nuclear submarines in order to better track Chinese and North Korean submarines. This statement is not only a threat, but more like a "pledge" submitted to the United States, indicating that South Korea is willing to charge forward and join the United States in confronting China and North Korea.
Previously, North Korea had publicly displayed its strategic weapons to demonstrate its strength and determination.
Second, North Korea has long had serious survival and security anxieties.
North Korea has made it clear in the past that it will never allow the United States to deploy "nuclear assets" on the Korean Peninsula.
Now South Korea’s pursuit of nuclear submarines will undoubtedly further stimulate North Korea, which is by no means a good sign of easing the already fragile peninsula situation.
Similarly, South Korea possesses nuclear submarines and also poses a certain security threat to China.
For a long time, China has played a role as a stabilizer in the situation on the peninsula, and it is likely that the cooperation between the United States and South Korea on nuclear submarines will not be indifferent.
Third, how can South Korea ensure that it is not seeking to build nuclear submarines to move towards "nuclear support"? How to ensure that the possession of nuclear submarines will not further heat up the situation in Northeast Asia? For North Korea, there is no need to say more,"using nuclear weapons to contain nuclear weapons" may become its trump card in countermeasures.
As for Japan, when seeing that South Korea can own nuclear submarines, it inevitably has thoughts. Can it also own it, or even seek to "support nuclear weapons" in one step? The remarks of Japanese politicians such as Takashi Saami Takashi and others have revealed Japan's military ambitions.
If things continue to develop in this direction, the complexity of the situation in Northeast Asia will rise dramatically.
North Korea may continue to conduct nuclear tests to enhance its strategic deterrence; Radical forces in South Korea may seek to "support nuclear weapons" more boldly; Stimulated by the nuclear cooperation between the United States and South Korea, Japan may also be eager to seek "nuclear support".
It can be said that the negative impact of the seemingly willful decision of the United States on Northeast Asia cannot be underestimated.
Of course, the development of the situation may not be as tense as imagined.
After all, Trump is a factor full of variables. Maybe he agreed to South Korea's request today and may change his mind tomorrow.
And, given the sensitivity of the situation in Northeast Asia, Trump will not necessarily completely let go of himself, ignoring the stability of the situation in the region.
What's more, the nuclear submarine project cooperated by the United States, Britain and Australia "AUKUS" is still in the PPT stage, and there are still great doubts about whether South Korea can actually obtain nuclear submarines.
Even if South Korea obtains a nuclear submarine, it will inevitably not completely relax its control over South Korea, and it will not leave South Korea completely out of its own control.
Most importantly, there is room for manoeuvre until the dust settles.
This depends on how several major powers that are closely related to the situation in Northeast Asia play.
What is certain at present is that China will never allow war on the peninsula, and the United States is well aware of this.
The direction of the situation in Northeast Asia, and how exactly it will develop, still needs continued attention.