Author: Cao Warin University of Leiden Regional Research Institute
荷兰于当地时间10月29日举行了提前进行的全国大选。根据Ipsos I&O为国家广播公司NOS发布的首轮出口民调，本次选举呈现出两大政治力量势均力敌的局面，计票过程预计将十分胶着。
The first exit poll showed that the group led by Rob Jetten, Liberal political party with a strong pro-European stance--The Democratic 66 Party (D66) is expected to win 27 of the 150 parliamentary seats. This was followed by Geert Wilders Extreme Right Liberal Party (PVV)It is expected to receive 25 seats.
Left is Wilders, right is Yaten. Image from POLITICO.EU
Preliminary polls by other major political parties include: the center-right Liberal Democratic People's Party (VVD) is expected to get 23 seats, the Green Left-Labour League (GL-PvdA) is expected to get 20 seats, and the mid-right Christian Democratic Party (CDA) is expected to get 19.
If this preliminary result is confirmed, it will mark a significant change in the political direction of the Netherlands. During the D66 election rally in Leiden, supporters welcomed the preliminary result and echoed the party's campaign slogan "it is possible".
For international observers not familiar with the Dutch multi-party coalition political system, the performance of the D66 party and its leader Rob Jeten in the latter part of this election is worthy of attention. As one of the founding members of the European Union and an important participant in global trade and technology, the Netherlands has attracted widespread attention from the outside world.
The central theme of the election is not only limited to traditional domestic affairs (such as immigration and housing), but also focuses on the different positions of Dutch society on the future direction of the country, especially its relationship with Europe.During the campaign, the 38-year-old Yeten positioned the D66 party as a representative of the European integration and positive optimism.
Photo taken by the author at the City of Leiden polling stations.
1. Political background: short-lived right-wing coalition government
To understand the achievements of the D66 in the polls, it is first necessary to understand the political situation in the Netherlands over the past year. The general election of 2023 witnessed a milestone victory for the PVV party of Wilders. After a long period of political marginalization, Wilders has for the first time succeeded in forming a right-wing coalition government, whose members include the center-right VVD party, the median New Social Covenant (NSC) party and the Peasant-Citizen Movement (BBB) party.
However, the coalition has been in power for less than a year. It is that the coalition has faced public internal disputes and policy problems since its inception. In June 2025, Wilders himself announced that his PVV party would withdraw from the ruling coalition, and that the long-running four-party coalition would instantly collapse. The reason Wilders gave was that the other parties in the ruling coalition did not provide sufficient support on the core issue of tightening refugee asylum policy.
The dissolution of the coalition government after just 336 days caused widespread aesthetic fatigue due to the instability and rigidity of the political situation。 This election is the third election in the Netherlands in five years, which undoubtedly further aggravates the public and the outside world's concerns about the political stability of the Netherlands.
In such a political atmosphere, Rob Yaten put forward a campaign message of "rebirth of optimism."In an interview before the vote, he referred to the ruling of the previous government as A failed extreme right-wing experiment, and pointed out: "We wasted time, the public finances deteriorated, and we achieved nothing." Yeten's personal image also improved late in the campaign. He participated in the popular Dutch TV quiz show "The Smartest Person" and finished third, making his calm and rational style recognized by more voters. Poll data showed that support for the D66 steadily climbed in the final weeks of the campaign, rising from 11 seats expected at the end of September to 23 on the eve of the election. Preliminary exit polls of 27 seats show that the party has successfully attracted some voters seeking constructive policy alternatives.
2. Who is Rob Yetten
If Rob Yeten finally leads a coalition government, he will become He is the youngest prime minister in Dutch history and the first openly gay prime minister.But Yaten himself, who actively mitigated these personal labels during the campaign, had made it clear: “I am neither a homosexual candidate nor a young candidate.
Jetten's political image is different from several other leading figures in Dutch politics. He has avoided Wilders 'fierce, anti-establishment rhetoric and lacks the long-standing EU bureaucratic record of Frans Timmermans, the former vice-president of the European Commission, the leader of this leftist coalition. His optimistic style also contrasts with the traditional centre-right prudence represented by Dilan Yeşilgöz, the new leader of the VVD party.
Yetten's core message in the campaign is vitality and forward-looking optimism. He believes that, The major challenges of the 21st century – such as climate change, geopolitical stability and economic competitiveness – cannot be solved by nations alone, let alone by defending their borders.This philosophy is the cornerstone of the D66 party, founded in 1966, whose core mission has been to promote the democratization and modernization of Dutch politics, and has long played one of the most firmly pro-European roles in Dutch politics.
3. The political program of the D66 party: calling for deeper European cooperation
The most central part of Rob Yaten’s political agenda is a call for the Netherlands to turn its traditional role in the EU. During the past decade of the VVD government led by Mark Rutte, the Netherlands has often played a “sparing” and skeptical role within the EU. Though it is a founding member, the Netherlands often uses its influence to oppose deeper integration, resist EU joint debt and use its veto right to slow down certain EU decision-making processes (such as treaty reform or acceptance of new members).
He said in an interview with POLITICO: “We want to stop saying ‘no’ by default and start saying ‘yes’ to ‘do more together’.
If the preliminary poll results are maintained, the D66 party will surpass the VVD party and declare itself as the "leading liberal party" in the Netherlands for the first time. According to its party program, D66 wants the Netherlands to play a'leading voice 'in Europe rather than a reluctant player。Yeten argued that the EU must transform into a "serious, democratic global force."
In the middle of Yates.
At the practical level, the program of D66 mainly includes:
Strengthening the European Union’s defence and autonomy: In the face of the security challenges posed by “Putin’s aggression,” Yeten believes that Europe can no longer rely solely on others to secure its defence. He hopes to give the EU the “power and resources” to “defend our territory,” a clear call for deepening European defence integration.
Reform decision-making mechanisms (end of state veto): A key part of the D66 program is the willingness to abandon the principle of "unanimous consent" (i.e. national veto) in specific areas. This is a sensitive issue for many member countries, because it involves the transfer of national sovereignty. But D66 believes that this is a necessary step to make the EU more decisive and efficient.
Investing in the Future (Climate, Economy, Education) He advocates “accelerating climate action”, “developing the economy” and “investing education”, and considers these to be not only Dutch domestic goals, but also prerequisites for achieving European prosperity and competitiveness as a whole.
This platform stands in direct contrast to Wilders' nationalist narrative, which blames Brussels for many of the problems in the Netherlands (especially the refugee flood).
Summary: Election Results and Cabinet Prospects
This export poll has actually told us that the Dutch people are facing a clear choice: on the one hand, the D66 party’s deepening European integration and intermediate reform line, on the other hand, the PVV party’s anti-immigration, anti-Muslim Dutch nationalist line and European skepticism flag.
These preliminary numbers are subject to change as the vote count unfolds. Of course, in the Netherlands, the election results are only the beginning of a long cabinet formation process. In the next step, the king of the Netherlands will appoint a "scout" to evaluate the potential alliance possibility, and then appoint a "informateur" to preside over the substantive negotiations on drafting the coalition agreement, but this process usually takes several months.
Whatever the final result, exit polls have shown that the cabinet negotiations for the next Dutch government will revolve around two completely different national development paths. The formation of the next government and the selection of key departments will affect the technological competition in Europe and the world.
This article was first published in Tencent News.