Just three days ago, Putin publicly claimed that a Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile "Haiyan" was successfully tested and will be equipped in the future. At that time, he said that this shows that Russia's ability in this respect ranks first in the world.
Just a few days later, on October 29, Putin announced for the second time that Russia had made significant progress in its nuclear weapons capabilities.
This time, the Russian army successfully tested a nuclear torpedo "Poseidon", which is more like an underwater drone.
Russia not only achieved launch boost from the submarine for the first time, but more importantly, the nuclear propulsion system successfully ignited and continued to provide power.
This weapon, known by the West as the “Last-day torpedo,” allegedly equivalent to more than 2 million tons of TNT, is 130 times the atomic bomb of Hiroshima, Putin directly said its “power far outweighs the most advanced intercontinental missiles and cannot be intercepted.”
This unprecedented intensive nuclear deterrence, rather than showing muscles, exposes Russia’s deep anxiety over Western sanctions.
On October 23, the European Union officially passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, for the first time pointing to the core pillar of the Russian economy - the natural gas industry, announcing that it will ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas from April 2026 on short-term contracts, and implement a comprehensive long-term ban from 2027.
On October 29, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Luck Oil and Russian Petroleum and its 34 subsidiaries, banning U.S. citizens and from doing any transactions with them.
This series of sanctions has formed a precise strike: Russia's oil and natural gas exports account for more than 40% of its federal budget revenue, while the United States and Europe joined forces to block energy channels, directly cutting off Russia's most important foreign exchange source.
Data showed that after the announcement of the sanctions, Rosneft's share price plummeted 22% on the Moscow Stock Exchange, and the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar once fell below the 100:1 mark, setting a new low since 2022.
Putin has chosen to showcase two "weapons of the end" at this time, which is essentially a stressful response to energy sanctions.
The "Haiyan" cruise missile claims to have an unlimited range and can theoretically attack targets after flying around the Earth, but its technical reliability has been questionable. military experts pointed out that the radiation leakage and control problems faced during the miniaturization of nuclear-powered devices have not been fully solved, and previous tests have not achieved the expected results.
And the "Poseidon" nuclear fishing tower although this time achieved nuclear-powered ignition, but the test video deliberately avoided the demonstration of underwater durability, its so-called "uninterceptable" characteristics are more based on theory.
It is worth noting that the development of these weapons systems was already public in 2018, so why should it be focused on launching in October 2025?
The answer lies in the latest report of the Russian Central Bank: As of the third quarter of this year, Russia's foreign exchange reserves have decreased by 18% compared with the same period last year, and energy export revenue has dropped sharply by 37%. Western sanctions have caused Russia's military-industrial complex research and development investment to fall by 12%. Conventional weapons production capacity has shrunk by nearly 20%. With insufficient conventional deterrence, nuclear weapons have become one of Putin's few cards.
The deeper pressure comes from the battlefield situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the dual squeeze of the domestic economy. The "peace plan" put forward by Trump in April this year triggered Moscow's short-term expectation. The plan proposed to recognize Crimea as Russian territory and acquiesce in Russia's control of parts of the four eastern Ukrainian states.
However, it is obvious that Ukraine will not compromise or give in to this. Europe still vigorously assists Ukraine. Although U.S. aid to Ukraine has fluctuated, it has not been completely interrupted.
At the same time, 69 new separate sanctions and a ban on cryptocurrency platforms added to the 19th round of EU sanctions further blocked Russia's channels to circumvent sanctions.
St. Petersburg port data show that the number of LNG ships stalled in October this year decreased by 65% compared to the same period last year, and large amounts of liquefied natural gas could not be exported only to domestic storage facilities, resulting in the Russian Gas Industry Corporation being forced to cut output.
Economic difficulties are turning to domestic pressure, and polls by the Moscow Institute of International Relations show that people’s dissatisfaction with the economic situation has risen from 38% earlier this year to 57%, while Putin’s support has remained at 62% but has fallen by 9 percentage points from last year.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg responded immediately after Putin's Poseidon declaration that NATO's nuclear deterrence capabilities were "sufficient to deal with any threat" and announced that it would strengthen the deployment of air defense systems in Eastern European member states.
More importantly, nuclear deterrence is unable to solve Russia’s real difficulties: the fiscal deficit caused by a sharp decline in energy revenues, the technological bottlenecks of conventional weapons production, and the isolation of the international community.
Compared to the situation in Crimea in 2014, when Russia was facing sanctions, it was still able to maintain economic stability with rising energy prices and sufficient foreign exchange reserves.
Now that the United States and Europe have established a tighter sanctions network, Russia's transportation costs to Asian markets have soared-shipping LNG to China costs three times as much as to Europe, and infrastructure capacity is limited.
Putin's nuclear statement may temporarily build domestic consensus, but it cannot change the economic blood loss caused by sanctions.
From a historical perspective, Putin’s intensive nuclear deterrence is in sharp contrast to his past style of conduct.In his State of the Union speech in 2018, he only mentioned nuclear deterrence once; and at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, speech about nuclear deterrence was less frequent.
Two high-profile demonstrations of nuclear weapons in just three days in October this year indicate that Russia is facing unprecedented pressure.
In the final analysis, Putin's intensive nuclear threat is not a sign of strength, but a reaction to Western sanctions hitting home. When the "ballast stone" of energy is jointly leveraged by the United States and Europe, and when conventional weapons arsenals are unable to support battlefield needs, nuclear weapons become Russia's last psychological line of defense.
But nuclear deterrence, like a steel thread, can neither reverse the economic trend nor win the battlefield victory, but may increase the isolation of the international community.
Winter in Moscow is coming. What Putin needs is not more propaganda of "doomsday weapons", but a realistic way to solve the sanctions dilemma. Otherwise, no matter how tough the nuclear stance is, it will not cover up the chill of the Russian economy.
References:
Putin: “Haiyan” nuclear-powered cruise missile completed “decisive test”
Putin announces successful "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned submersible vehicle test--China News Network
U.S. announces new round of sanctions against Russia, focusing on two oil companies