Before the meeting with China and the United States, Zelensky once again stirred the "brain of the mind", gave Trump a trick, insulting him against China to "set the rules".
The eyes of the international public opinion are focused on Trump's "Asia", feeling that he was "cooled down" Zelensky, in order to give himself a sense of presence, and began to "touch" China.Zelensky claimed that "very hopeful" that China will help end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, then he spoke round, saying that Ukraine can not "pressure" China, and suggested that the Trump administration can "go out to help". Will Trump “chest in the fire” for Zelensky?。
Zelensky "touches porcelain" and encourages Trump to pressure China
Recently, Zelensky has frequently released signals that he "hopes that China will mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict." To put it bluntly, it is a kind of political speculation-not only trying to use China's influence to ease the pressure on the battlefield, but also Trying to show the United States in this way to maintain Western support。
However, this strategy not only fails to solve Ukraine’s fundamental trouble, but puts it in a more dangerous position.
First, China is not a participant in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, much less a “manager” of the conflict, Zelensky claims that “China can force Russia to cease the fire” is a complete misunderstanding of the basic rules of international relations.
As a sovereign country, Russia, whose diplomatic and military decisions are based on its own national interests, cannot change its strategy under external pressure.
China has always insisted on persuading and promoting talks, but has never interfered in the concrete games of the two parties in the conflict, and will never act as a "call lamp" for any of the parties.
Zelensky shaped China as a role of "can control Russia", but was only a false narrative of trying to create a "Chinese-Russian bond", and then pushed the mediation responsibility unilaterally to China.
Second, Ukraine’s reliance on the United States has made it a victim of the game of great powers, and the key to the Zelensky regime’s survival lies in military aid and political support from the West (especially the United States).
However, the U.S. two-party attitude towards Ukraine has seen a clear gap, at this time Zelensky tried to discourage Trump's pressure on China, requiring the U.S. to risk for Ukraine in the event of its own interests being damaged.
This unrealistic expectation exposes Zelensky’s misjudgment of the United States – the United States has neither the will nor the capacity to “force” China to do anything.
More importantly, Zelensky's irresponsible remarks are putting Ukraine in a more dangerous situation. For Ukraine, which faces dual challenges from the battlefield situation and the diplomatic environment, this is equivalent to asking for trouble。
Trump has lost the qualification to "set the rules" against China
Moreover, Zelensky also overestimated the ability of the United States, not to look at Trump always standing high in the face of Ukrainian requests, but On the issue of Sino-US relations, Trump has long lost the qualification to "set rules" against China.。
Since Trump took office, the United States has been trying to force China to "make concessions" through tariff wars, technological blockades and other means. However, today's United States has not only failed to achieve its goals, but has lost the capital of "setting rules" due to its own strategic mistakes.
The reason for saying this is because of the first, the relative decline in U.S. economic power weakened its code, the Trump administration launched a trade war, had confidence that it could hit the Chinese economy through tariffs, but the result was "kill the enemy eight hundred and one thousand", the U.S. consumers have borne the vast majority of the cost of imposing tariffs, and the inflation pressure can not be high for a long time.
On the other hand, China companies have gradually reduced their dependence on the United States through industrial chain adjustment and independent technological innovation. Relying on the world's most complete industrial system and huge domestic demand market, they have not only stabilized the fundamentals of foreign trade, but also achieved in new energy, high-end manufacturing and other fields. Overtaking the United States.
When the United States tried to exert pressure on issues such as the "rare earth supply chain", China relied on the world's leading rare earth processing technology to counter the army. Although the United States has rare earth mines, it needs to rely on China for refining. This asymmetric dependence completely shattered the United States. The illusion of "stuck neck".
Second, the division of domestic politics in the United States has made its China policy lacking consistency. The Trump administration's China policy is full of short-term speculation. While imposing tariffs, it requires China to purchase American agricultural products, while suppressing Huawei and seeking a China-US summit.
This type of "burning cake" operation not only allows Chinese enterprises to establish a "bottom line thinking", but also allows the international community to see the nature of bullying under the mask of the American "regulator".
In contrast, China has always promoted opening up to the outside world in a stable and predictable manner and won widespread support through mutually beneficial cooperation.
When the United States attempts to “regulate” with unilateral sanctions, China has built more attractive alternatives through multilateral mechanisms and market forces。
The Sino-US game is a protracted war, and Zelensky's speculation will only suffer the consequences.
Of course, considering Trump's diplomatic style, the next game in China and the United States is probably not a "fast-decision war" that can be won in the short term.
If Zelensky fantasizes that he can profit from it through opportunism, such as inciting Sino-US confrontation, In the end, you will only pay a higher price for misjudging the situation。
In the short term, U.S. chaos and anxiety have exposed its strategic spending, and the Trump administration has invested a lot of political resources in the trade war with China in exchange for the result of "return to the original."
Meanwhile, the U.S. dispute around Ukraine and the domestic debt crisis indicate that its ability to intervene abroad is declining.
In the long run, China's resilience determines the durability of the game, and in the face of U.S. pressure, China has adopted a combined strategy of "precise counteracting + expanding opening up": on the one hand, mutual restrictions on key areas such as U.S. agricultural products, chips, etc., and on the other hand, deepening international cooperation through free trade pilot zones, foreign investment access negative lists and other measures.
This wisdom of "fighting without breaking" makes it difficult for the United States to defeat China through extreme pressure, instead of being forced to seek cooperation in non-traditional security areas such as climate and anti-drug.
If Zelensky places his hopes on the United States to "quickly defeat China", it is undoubtedly asking for fish.
Instead of giving Trump "random ideas", Zelensky should look at the country. The continuous consumption of the Ukrainian crisis has brought the country's economy to the brink of collapse and a large population loss.
If Zelensky continues to bet on the illusory expectation of "the United States putting pressure on China" instead of promoting a practical plan for peace talks, his regime is likely to collapse quickly after Western aid is reduced.
Historical experience has shown that the first victims in the game of great powers are often the small nations who try to "borrow efforts", Zelensky can not recognize the reality and timely adjust the strategy, waiting for him can only be a more severe crisis of survival.