Preliminary
Not long ago, Trump also yelled "no matter how disconnected" and set up a fish-death-network against the Chinese side.
However, on October 26, a negotiation in Kuala Lumpur completely rewritten the direction of China and the United States. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce also disclosed foreign investment data of 500 billion yuan.
What exactly happened behind the U.S. from the extreme pressure to the active softness?
A report on “disconnect” cover.
On October 25, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, a negotiation that affected global nerves was in full swing.
The U.S. representative still maintains the usual tough stance.
Not only is China demanding a comprehensive easing of rare earth exports, but it also wants China to significantly increase imports of U.S. soybeans.
The key is not to mention tariff relief, the scene is once in a stalemate.
Just the day after the negotiations fell into the glue, a mysterious message spread quietly inside the U.S. team.
It changed the direction of the entire negotiation. It was an emergency report from the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers.
The figures in the report are like a blockbuster, shockingly clear.
If China fully tightened rare earth exports, the U.S. semiconductor and military industry would face the risk of stopping production within six months, with direct economic losses likely to exceed $500 billion.
The pressure is far more than this, and the estimates within the US Department of Commerce are equally miserable.
If Trump goes his own way and really imposes a 100% tariff on all China goods, domestic prices in the United States will rise by 15% to 20% in the short term.
The despair of agricultural states is even more visible to the naked eye.
Throughout September, U.S. soybean exports to China directly returned to zero, and no one cared about the mountains of soybeans in warehouses.
The chairman of the U.S. Soybean Association issued a highest-level warning in Congress, saying it was enough to sound the warning of an agricultural disaster.
The protests of farmers have surged, putting the choices of several states in the Midwest at risk.
These were once Trump’s strongest stockpiles, but are now his biggest negative assets.
The slap in the face of reality is far louder than the attack of any opponent.
The political clock is also inexorably closing in, with the November 2026 midterm elections approaching.
Trump knows more than anyone else that the Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives in 2018 because of the US-China trade war.
The last five hours of the negotiations have divided the U.S. position.
They are no longer aggressive, but show unprecedented pragmatism.
He took the initiative to propose constructive solutions to the previously controversial issues such as "20% reciprocal tariff extension" and "US 301 investigation ship charges against China."
The Chinese representative stuck to his bottom line and told the secret with the saying,"The United States has a tough negotiating stance, but China is more determined to safeguard its own interests."
On the table, the stake is strength and code, while China holds the hardest cards.
The advantages of China's industrial chain
Data is the most honest language.
The report of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has struck the face of those arguments that “foreign investment withdraws from China.”
In the first nine months of 2025, China's actual use of foreign funds amounted to 5,737 billion yuan.
Especially in September, foreign equity grew by a staggering 11.2 percent.
This is not a cold number, it is a vote of confidence cast by global capital with real money.
What is even more strategically far-sighted is that China is not complacent about its temporary victory.
Instead, they set their sights on the farther future.
The negotiations have just ended, and the domestic discussion of the "strategic window period" has begun.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" focused on research and development, which has precisely targeted the semiconductor, artificial intelligence and the key areas of the "cutting neck".
The country is investing in research and development with unprecedented efforts, and the goal is only one: to independent control of core technologies.
This is the ultimate bargaining chip in the game of great powers, and this is the confidence that makes any opponent dare not easily wield the big stick of sanctions.
Before seeing the United States unmoving into sanctions, the heart is still quite anxious, but this negotiation let me understand, strength, is hard reason!
The latest report from the World Bank provides the most powerful footnote for China's confidence.
The report pointed out that even in the face of the pressure of a trade war, China's contribution to global economic growth will still exceed 30%.
The contribution rate of the United States is expected to drop below 15%, the report also emphasizes.
Among the global supply chain diversification trends, China has the most complete industrial doors.
Still being the “irreplaceable hub,” it is not self-blaming, which is the conclusion of a common study by economists around the world.
Two modes of open competition
This trade war, which seems to be a dispute between the two countries, is in fact an open competition between two models of development and two values.
On the one hand, it is the “zero-sum game” pursued by the United States, and on the other hand, it is the “peaceful development, mutual benefit and win-win” advocated by China.
And the world is giving its own answers with actions.
The President of the European Commission stated publicly:
“China-US trade friction has affected the stability of the global supply chain, and the EU does not support any form of extreme tariff measures.”
This is not just a neutral statement, it is a signal of "de-Americanization" and alienation from traditional allies.
The United States is becoming increasingly isolated on the international stage, while China’s “friend circle” is expanding.
More and more countries have discovered that cooperation with China is not a choice but a choice for common development and prosperity.
What is even more convincing is the actual actions of those global giants, jointly announced by European chemical giants such as Germany's BASF and France's Total.
An additional 20 billion euros will be invested in China in the next five years, Apple's latest supply chain report shows.
Despite pressure from the U.S. government, its “Made in China” share of new iPhones is still up to 75 percent.
Apple CEO Cook said in a letter to shareholders:
"China still has irreplaceable advantages in precision, efficiency and supply chain integration." These choices of capital and enterprises are more powerful than any diplomatic rhetoric.
Similarly striking is the output of both sides in the high-tech field, with the implementation rate of the U.S. Chip and Science Act of only 40%.
Many companies have delayed plant construction plans due to market uncertainty.
In the same period, China's "14th Five-Year Plan" chip industry investment has exceeded 120%, and the production capacity of enterprises such as China-Chip International and Yangtze River Storage is steadily increasing.
One is hesitating, the other is running wildly, making judgments. Behind this, there is a huge difference between the governance efficiency and strategic determination of the two countries.
The result of this model dispute is clearly presented to the world.
China's "mutually beneficial and win-win" model is like a huge magnet, attracting global resources, talents and capital.
The United States '"zero-sum game" thinking is gradually plunging itself into a quagmire of isolation and decline.
This is not anyone's subjective assumption, it is an economic law, and it is the support of the people.
Future competition is a dispute of models
Therefore, when we celebrate the victory at the negotiating table, we must maintain a sobriety, which is more like the halftime of a fierce boxing match.
The referee only temporarily stopped the game, and the game was far from over.
Trump’s compromise is to “risk disaster relief” for his own political life.
And what we’ve won is an extremely valuable “strategic window period.”
This time will directly determine our initiative in the game of great powers over the next decade and even longer.
The latest IMF assessment provides an authoritative note of the importance of this window period.
The report pointed out that the easing of Sino-US relations will increase global economic growth expectations in 2026 by 0.3 percentage points.
That 0.3 percentage point, which seems tiny, is behind trillion-level market opportunities and millions of jobs.
The report particularly emphasizes that China has used this "strategic window period" to achieve breakthroughs in the field of science and technology.
It will have a positive outflow effect on global technological progress and lower costs.
This means that China’s breakthrough is not only an opportunity for China, but also a gospel for the world.
In the "14th Five-Year Plan", there is only one core of every scientific researcher's day and night struggle.
That is to master the core technology and a high level of scientific and technological independence.
From high-end chips to industrial software, from aerospace engines to biomedicine, these areas are "stuck".
These are the mountains that we must overcome in the future.
Every time we win one, our waist will be straighter and our safety will be more guaranteed.
In the end, the competition of the great powers of the future has long gone beyond the mere military and economic competition.
It is a model appeal competition on "who can provide better development solutions and better build global consensus."
We have proven that our path is straightforward and that we can succeed.
The task now is to make this path wider and more steady, so that the pursuers, even the courage to challenge, do not have!
conclusion
The victory of the trade war is not the end, but the precious opportunity we have won.
Future competition is the attraction of the development model and the autonomy of core technologies.
When the path is proved to be correct, the only thing we have to do is to keep it firmly.