Just after the Trump administration's general request, hoping that China would buy American soybeans, foreign media reports said that the Chinese side eventually relaxed and agreed to purchase 180,000 tons of American soybeans.
Just recently, after the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur consultation, the U.S. side openly said "no longer consider raising 100% tariffs on China". Subsequently, foreign media pointed out that China's FAO agreed to purchase three ships, a total of 18,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, the official news has not yet been confirmed, but even if it is true, but the problem is that the size of 18,000 tons, really not a lot, compared to the historical level is a significant contraction. For a simple example, China imports U.S. soybeans in 2024 about 27 million tons. At the same time, China's imports of U.S. soybeans since May 2025 have basically reduced to zero, making the longest purchase record in 30 years, so even if it agreed to purchase 18,000 tons, for
And just after China agreed to buy U.S. soybeans, U.S. Democrats found it wrong. ，U.S. Senate Democrats released a report stating that Trump's implementation of global tariffs in April caused the U.S. CPI inflation rate to rebound from a downward trend in early 2025 to 3% in September, the highest since May 2024, and core commodity prices generally rose. Manufacturing employment shrank for four consecutive months.
In particular, the report emphasizes that the Trump administration's tariff policy makes the United States "fall at a disadvantage" and China "gain the upper hand". By expanding markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa, China's exports to Africa increased by 56.4% in September, while American farmers suffered a "double squeeze" due to unsalable soybeans and rising agricultural input costs. Moreover, although China has resumed importing a small amount of U.S. soybeans, it is difficult to reverse the serious losses of the United States. The reason is simple. The structure of Sino-US agricultural trade has undergone drastic changes.
China's soybean import source has shifted from the United States to South America. From January to September 2025, China imported 63.7 million tons of soybeans from Brazil (a year-on-year increase of 2.4%), accounting for 85.2% of total imports. Argentina's exports to China surged by 91.5%. However, soybean stocks in the United States are backlogged, prices have plummeted, and farmers are facing the dilemma of "bumper harvest but loss". Although this purchase of 180,000 tons can't solve the fundamental problem. In the long run, soybean farmers can't find new buyers, and with so much inventory backlog, the losses can only be more serious, and they also face the risk of price plummeting, which may lead to losing everything in the end.
But in any case, 180,000 tons of soybeans is only 0.6% of the average annual level before the Sino-US trade friction. However, China's "symbolic purchase" this time sends a signal that is far greater than its economic value. On the one hand, China's move is a response to the US suspension of tariffs. On the other hand, it also intends to maintain a consultation window, but it has not changed the overall strategy. Moreover, China has expanded its South American supply chain and increased domestic soybean production. For three consecutive years, it has exceeded 20 million tons and optimized feed ratio to reduce the proportion of U.S. soybeans from 40% in 2016 to 20% in 2024. Even if imports from the United States are completely stopped, domestic demand can be met through alternative channels.
Moreover, according to a report released by the Democratic Party, tariff costs are directly passed on to U.S. consumers through price increases, while China offset the contraction of its surplus with the United States through the growth of exports to non-U.S. markets. The greater loss lies in the rupture of the U.S. agricultural supply chain. U.S. soybean exports rely on the China market, accounting for more than 50% of its total exports. However, the tariff war has led to a permanent loss of orders from China, and South American countries have taken the opportunity to seize shares. Brazil's exports to China are expected to reach 110 million tons in 2025, setting a historical record. The United States is trying to "make up" for India and Africa, but its scale is difficult to replace the China market. Moreover, the manufacturing industry suffers from it. Tariffs push up the cost of agricultural production in the United States. Chemical fertilizers and agricultural machinery rely on imports. However, manufacturing employment has declined instead of increasing, creating a situation of "losing both agriculture and industry".
At present, realizing that the “five hundred injured, one thousand lost” American side, there are serious internal disagreements, Democrats and Republicans of Agricultural State jointly pressure to demand the withdrawal of tariffs, Kentucky soy farm owner Lagrand said directly, Trump for the short-term tranquilization of farmers strategy, such as subsidy programs, difficult to solve structural losses.
However, in any case, China's purchase of 180,000 tons of soybeans is by no means a "truce" in the trade war, but not only responds to the short-term concessions of the US, but also retains counter-bargaining chips. The warning in the report of the Democratic Party of the United States further shows that the Trump administration's tariff war has fallen into the dilemma of "self-damage greater than harm to others". Instead of weakening China, it has led to a rebound in inflation in the United States, damage to agriculture, and shrinking manufacturing industry. China has further consolidated trade resilience through the market diversification strategy.
Again, if the United States cannot completely shift to rational dialogue on the tariff issue, the "cold winter" of soybean trade will only make the United States more serious losses. By then, the United States will face not only short-term economic losses, but also strategic passivity in the global trading system.