On October 21, the Dutch government suddenly released a signal, saying that it wanted to meet with China to talk about the Anse Semiconductor impasse, which should be a good thing to ease the situation, did not think of Europe collectively "change the face". Germany and France not only did not accuse the Netherlands of provocation, but instead jumped out to support it, the whole EU also followed the unified calendar, putting out a set of "united resistance" gesture.
Faced with repeated pressure from European politicians, China did not back down this time and responded clearly: If Germany does not relax restrictions on high-tech exports to China, China will not easily adjust its rare earth export policies.What kind of interest game lies behind this seemingly "chip dispute"? Is Europe suddenly turning tough out of collective interest or is it led by the United States?
In June, the Dutch government, under pressure from the United States, announced that it would restrict the export of advanced deep ultraviolet engraving machines to China by its optical engraving giant Asma (ASML).This decision, known as a “technological blockade”, directly pushed the normal scientific and technological cooperation between China and China to the ice.
China did not immediately counteract, but on August 1, it announced export controls on critical metals of uranium and uranium. These two metals are essential materials for the manufacture of semiconductors, military radars and high-performance communication equipment.More than 90 percent of the world’s uranium and 60 percent of uranium are from China, a trick that can be said to accurately hit the pain spot in Europe.
By September 1, Asma’s new round of export controls came into effect. China did not speak anymore, but promoted the second round of export measures on a departmental basis. By December 1, high-purity graphics were added to the control list. Graphics are key materials for electric vehicle batteries, Europe is in the stage of green transformation, and car companies are highly dependent on these raw materials.
The German automobile industry has been deeply hit by the shortage of chips. Major manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen frequently reported reports of production suspension, and complaints were everywhere for a while.
On October 23, the EU summit in Brussels became a turning point. German Chancellor Merz changed the subject in an interview. He first said that he hoped to find a "solution acceptable to both sides," and then turned the finger at China, saying that "rare earth control is unacceptable." this On the one hand, wanting to negotiate, while shouting for pressure, let China see clearly – Germany is really in panic.。
Not only Germany, but France also jumped out of the platform. Macron publicly stated that "the EU should consider all means of retaliation against China" and turned the focus to China's rare earth exports. European Commission President Von der Leyen even said that the EU is ready to use "all means in the toolbox."
China has long supplied more than 80% of the world’s rare earth, and Europe’s reliance on these resources has reached the point of industrial life.
In the face of China's tough response, the internal division in Europe has gradually emerged. German media that the German side has submitted a “white list” to China, covering several fields such as automotive manufacturing, electronics, energy equipment, and hopes that China will resume supply of rare earth.This shows that the domestic industry in Germany has already felt the pressure of reality and the urgent need to ease the tension in the supply chain.
But the political hard mouth did not converge on this. German Economy Minister Reich said in public, "China needs to be hit a bit harshly"; while Sa'an State Economy Minister Schultz is more on the side to advocate the Netherlands "doing beautifully", while being reversed by the old statement a few months ago that China and Germany were also praising "mutually beneficial and win-win".
European politicians shout “rules” and “free trade” in their mouths, but they are busy setting limits and cutting their necks. When China takes reasonable countermeasures, they immediately turn their faces and pose as a "victim". This operation routine has long been seen through。
Bloomberg reports reveal that the EU has actually been secretly studying how to put pressure on China without hurting its own economy. For example, raising the threshold for China companies to invest in Europe, mandatory technology transfer, and hiring local employees. These seemingly "protectionist" practices are actually a passive struggle under deep dependence on China's market and resources.
Even within the EU, it is clear that the so-called "anti-coercion tool" is not a panacea. The regulation, known as the "nuclear option", will only officially take effect at the end of 2023.It was originally designed to respond to China's "trade counterattack" against Lithuania, but it has never been actually used once until now.
Once it is really used, not only will China counter it, but Europe itself can't afford it. German manufacturing PMI and euro zone export data have continued to decline in recent months, inventories in many industries have piled up, and energy prices are high. The European economy itself has entered a "technical recession".
European car companies, chemical companies, and technology companies are all reassessing the global supply chain, and many of them are considering keeping part of their production capacity in China. For example, Germany's BASF continues to invest tens of billions of euros in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, China, to build an integrated chemical base.
This demonstrates that entrepreneurs who truly understand the market are more aware of the reality than politicians.They know that separating themselves from China, the world’s manufacturing center, is a “self-interruption”.
China’s proposed conditions are not complicated: If Europe does not lift restrictions on high-tech exports to China, China will not relax export controls on rare earths, gallium, and germanium.This is not a threat, but the principle of reciprocity.Cooperation should be built on the basis of mutual respect, rather than one party being divided and the other being constantly constrained.
The tug-of-war in Europe from "chips" to "rare earths" is actually a tussle between politics and reality. On the one hand, politicians shout "tough on China," but on the other hand, they have to admit that they cannot do without China's market and resources.
On October 26, German Foreign Minister Vadoufour originally planned to visit China, but was explicitly rejected by China for mentioning the "Taiwan Sea issue" in the media. China and the EU can talk about cooperation and economy, but any issues involving China's internal affairs should not be on the agenda of the dialogue。
Dutch MP Karemans was also exposed to a tough attitude in the negotiations, without regrets, and also turned to blame China.This "first challenge, then blame" approach, not only failed to compassion, but instead made the EU internally start to reflect: Shouldn't it be for the strategic goals of the United States to bet on the European industrial chain?？
Some scholars point out that Europe's current mentality is actually contradictory.They both want to enjoy the huge dividends of the Chinese market, and want to remain politically on the "moral height", and even want to take China's resources as a "due" global utility.
Behind this diplomatic and economic tug, the "schizophrenia" of European politicians is particularly evident. While shouting to be tough on China, he privately submitted a "white list" to request rare earth supply; While saying that you want to use the "nuclear option", you are afraid of getting burned。
The direction of the entire incident has actually surpassed a single company like "Anshi Semiconductor". It has become a microcosm of the direction of China-EU relations and also exposed the strategic anxiety of Western countries under the new pattern.
China did not take the initiative to provoke this dispute, but in the face of unfair and unequal behavior, China will not give in weakly. In this era of strength and rules, equality, mutual benefit and respect are the only way out for cooperation.
As the old saying says: You respect me a foot, I will give you a height; you step tight, then I will not be soft.。 Now, the ball is kicked back to the feet of Europe. Whether they will continue to "act" or are they ready to sit down and have a good talk, the answer will be revealed soon.
This game around chip, rare earth, in fact, has long been not only a technical level of the problem, but related to geopolitics, economic vitality and even the deep sub-angle of the global supply chain. faced with the change of face and pressure of Europe, China this time clearly stated that the cooperation should be hand in hand, the bottom line is clear, and the attitude is firm.
Source of information:
[1] "Germany and France support the EU's tough trade with China, and Germany proposes: consider using the'nuclear option '" Observer.com
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