Today we are going to talk about a very severe change in the recent situation in South Asia. Just recently, China's hard-worked joint statement of the three countries, the ink is not yet completely dry, and a bad news has come from Istanbul.

This negotiation was originally regarded by everyone as "a turning point for peace in South Asia". In fact, it is a continuation of China's successful mediation in Doha on the 19th. At that time, the Afghan Taliban personally made a commitment to "jointly fight terrorism". But who would have thought that in just nine days, all the consensus had gone up in smoke. China's painstaking mediation now seems to be "a waste of work".

After the negotiations broke down, the Pakistani delegation's departure gesture was full of anger. Their dissatisfaction directly points to a core issue: the Afghan Taliban refused to sign the named clause to contain the "Pakistani Taliban". What needs to be explained here is that "Bata" is the culprit of many recent attacks on the Pakistani border. Last month alone, they caused more than 20 casualties in the Pakistani military. More importantly, the organization's training base is still hidden in Afghanistan.

So what exactly caused the negotiations to break? India¡¯s intervention may be a key factor. If we look closely at the timeline, we¡¯ll find some thoughtful coincidences:

At the beginning of October, Foreign Minister Mutaki made a sudden visit to India, where New Delhi pledged $500 million in economic aid to Afghanistan and announced the re-opening of the embassy in Afghanistan.This is the first time India has re-established full official cooperation with Afghanistan after the Assad regime took power in 2021.

In mid-October, the third day after India reached cooperation, Bata militants suddenly cross-border assaulted the Pakistani border post, directly triggering the two countries' most intense fighting in three years, with dozens of people killed in the conflict.

On the 20th, when Pakistan and Afghanistan were preparing for the second round of negotiations, the Indian army suddenly launched a military exercise with a scale of 10,000 people on the southern border of Pakistan. Armored vehicles and fighter planes took turns to fight, and the scene was very big.

These three times together, it is difficult to believe just coincidence. There are analyses that say very directly: "India is the ATA as a gamble to grasp Pakistan." The facts also seem to indicate this, when China mediated, Atamin promised "not allow any forces to use Afghan territory against Pakistan", but India's aid came in place, Atamani changed his mouth, in the negotiations said "no jurisdiction over BATA", put the responsibility of fighting BATA all to Pakistan.

Faced with such a situation, Pakistan obviously has no longer beared it. In fact, before the negotiations began, Pakistani Defense Minister Asif made a malicious remark: "We have hosted 3 million Afghan refugees, but in exchange for constant attacks on the border!" Now that the negotiations have broken down, the Pakistani railway military is bound to take action. A more dangerous signal is that Pakistan has begun to contact the Afghan anti-Taliban organization "National Resistance Front". This organization controls the Panjshir Valley in northern Afghanistan and is the main opposition party in Atta. This move by Pakistan means that regional forces are being regrouped.

Although the Pakistan-Arab negotiating delegation is still in Istanbul, the possibility of restarting negotiations is very low. The situation here is already tense enough, and India is still increasing pressure and plans to extend the military exercise on the southern border to mid-November. Now South Asia can be said to be on the verge of getting out of control, and the risk of a proxy war is increasing.

On the surface, the conflict is between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but in fact, India is using Atta's hands to implement "proxy containment" on Pakistan. Several facts deserve attention: Bata training base is still operating in Afghanistan; Cross-border attacks continue; India continues to heat up the situation through aid and military exercises.

Some analysts pointed out that "India's chess broke the fragile balance of South Asia. If Bata launched a major attack again, Pakistan is likely to carry out air strikes on targets within the territory, thereby provoking ATA's retaliation."

At present, the hope of peace in South Asia is increasingly slim. Although China is still pushing the situation to cool down through diplomatic channels, India's step-by-step pressing and Atta's repeated attitude are pushing this land into the danger of "shaking the earth and shaking the mountains". The stability of this region is facing an unprecedented test.