Why did China suddenly give the soybean order that the United States has always wanted? This news is very unusual.
According to foreign media disclosures, the FAO Group purchased three ships of U.S. soybeans this week. The amount is about 180,000 tons, scheduled to be shipped from the U.S. West port in December and January. There are analysts that if the U.S. reaches a preliminary agreement on Thursday, China may purchase more in the coming weeks.
Although there is no accurate information, but from the current disclosure point of view, the United States has indeed done a great job in order to get China to order, if the U.S. soybeans are no longer exported, it will be ruined in the warehouse.
The outcome of the US negotiations.
The fifth round of China-US negotiations, much smoother than imagined, this is probably the most crucial reason the United States can not delay, the United States is currently facing two major problems, the first is soybeans, no way to sell, all stacked in warehouses.
From the point of view of the content of the information, both China and the United States have given positive feedback on the assessment, China said that "a basic consensus has been reached", Bessent said in an interview after his return to the country, further stressing that China will purchase large amounts of soybean and delay the comprehensive control of rare earth.
In this way, China does make concessions, which is also the inevitable result of mutually beneficial cooperation.
The week before the negotiations, Trump was also threatening to "impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1st", but less than ten days later, he changed the slogan to "confidence in achieving a comprehensive agreement".
But what must be clear is that this is by no means an open-ended compromise: 180,000 tons is only a fraction of China's average monthly import volume, which is far from the US expectation of "returning to the 2024 level of 22.13 million tons." Not to mention Trump's outrageous request for a "fourfold increase."
The essence of this transaction lies in the "controllability". the Chinese side with very small commercial costs, in exchange for the relief of tariff pressure and the easing of the negotiating atmosphere, while retaining a larger token, as Li Zhen Steel, deputy minister of commerce, stressed in the press conference, "China's interests are firm", and the soya card will never be easy before the U.S. has not completely abandoned the core differences against China's containment and the maritime logistics 301 measures.
Who is more dependent on whom?
It is not China that relies on the United States, but the U.S. soybean industry has long been "deeply bound" by the Chinese market, and this degree of binding is so deep that there are hardly any alternatives.
From 2011 to 2017, 28% of U.S. soybeans sold to China, accounting for 60% of its total exports. Even in the year of the most intense trade friction, China was still the biggest buyer of U.S. soybeans. This dependence came to a crisis in 2025: due to a sharp decline in orders, heavy pressure on U.S. soybeans stocks, prices fell to the bottom, and middle-western farmers had to join forces to write Trump, demanding that the government "takes practical action."
It is ridiculous that the U.S. has tried to find alternative markets, but the reality has given a heavy blow.Besent is a senior official, as a former soy farmer, it is not clear: "Lost the Chinese market, the U.S. soybean industry will face a devastating blow."
As the world's largest soybean importer, China's annual imports account for 60% of global trade. It does need stable supply, but this does not mean that it is "only the United States." Since the trade war in 2018, China has built a diversified import system: Brazil has been the largest source country for more than ten consecutive years, the share of South American countries such as Argentina and Uruguay has steadily increased, and the proportion of U.S. soybeans in China's import market in 2024 has dropped from 33% in 2021 to 21%.
The author has noticed that China is also quite particular about the timing of procurement: Choosing to ship from December to January, both avoided the peak period of South American soybean listing, and can accurately link the demand gap in the domestic market, can be called "the perfect combination of business reason and strategic considerations".
Huang Renxun's "Breaking Point": There is no winner in the trade war
"The most powerful technology is not built behind closed doors, but is tempered in the global market." Huang Renxun's words were originally talking about the technology industry, but in the context of the Sino-US trade game, they accurately exposed the misunderstanding of the United States.
Whether it’s chips, rare earth, or soybeans, any attempt to make hegemony with “disconnected chains” will eventually reflect itself.
The predicament of the United States in soybean trade is a typical result of "confrontation behind closed doors". In order to contain China, the United States first took 301 measures in maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries, and then threatened to impose sky-high tariffs, trying to force China to make concessions with unilateralism.
But they forget that the soybean industry has long been the product of the global division of labor. When China turns to other supplier countries, American soybeans can only rot in warehouses, farmers' income plummets, and related industrial chains come to a standstill. This loss is far higher than the cost of "changing sellers" in China.
Even in the year of the most intense trade friction, China did not completely cut off its trade with the United States, and still imported 22.13 million tons in 2024, taking care of the interests of the American farmers and retaining space for negotiation for itself. This "struggle without breaking" wisdom is precisely the practice of Yuan Yinglong's view: the global market is like a sophisticated ecosystem, each participant plays a role in it, and those who destroy the ecology will eventually be punished by the ecology.
In short, the order of 180,000 tons of soybeans is not so much a "concession" as a "touchstone". It not only gave the United States a step up, but also created a positive atmosphere for the next APEC meeting, but it in no way means the end of Sino-US economic and trade frictions.
The future of the game still depends on three key variables:
The first is the "sincerity" of the US side. After all, the United States has changed its mind many times after negotiations, and the results of cooperation have gone to waste.
To regain the Chinese market, the U.S. soya should not only face competition from Brazil and Argentina, but also deal with the long-term impact of China's "soya revitalization program".
At present, the global economic recovery is weak, and the US as the two largest economies, its trade relations directly affect the stability of the global supply chain.
In the long run, soybeans will still be an important token in China’s hands, or that’s the truth behind 180,000 tons of soybeans.