Small soybeans have recently become a thermometer for Sino-US trade. Reuters quoted two trade sources as saying on October 28 that China COFCO purchased three batches of U.S. soybeans this week, totaling about 180,000 tons, and will be shipped through U.S. Pacific Northwest ports in December and January next year. Although the scale of this purchase is not large, the signal is of great significance. The deal, which took place on the eve of this week's China-US leaders 'summit, sparked widespread speculation in the market. Benchmark soybean futures prices in Chicago surged to a 15-month high this week, recovering from nearly five-year lows, boosted by expectations of a possible trade deal between China and the United States.

China is the world's largest soybean importer, with an annual import volume of about 90 million tons, and about 90% of it depends on the international market. The United States is the world's largest soybean producer, with an annual output of about 100 million tons, nearly half of which rely on exports. Soybean trade between the two big countries has always been a "barometer" of Sino-US economic and trade relations. Behind Sino-US soybean trade is strong economic complementarity. "Affected by soil, seeds, technology and other aspects, the average yield of corn and soybean in the United States is 1.42 times and 1.49 times that of China, respectively." This difference in natural endowment determines that soybean has become the natural link of Sino-US trade. Not buying soybeans was once China's "weapon" to deal with the trade war.

Now that the pace of negotiations is accelerating, purchasing soybeans has become a strategy to express sincerity in negotiations. Behind the transformation is the unique "soybean logic" between China and the United States. After Trump provoked a trade war last year, American soybean farmers bore the brunt. They could not sell their beans and were not easy to preserve. They could only watch as they rotted. There was even a "explosion" accident this month, which directly affected Trump's political foundation. According to data, 51.7% of U.S. soybean exports in 2024 will still be sold to China, and the China market is irreplaceable to the U.S. soybean industry. The trade war prevented U.S. soybeans from entering the China market, causing U.S. soybean farmers to suffer huge losses. Faced with these practical challenges, the United States has to express its support.

On October 29, after China gave the U.S. desired soybeans orders, Trump told the media on Air Force One to travel to South Korea: ¡°I expect tariffs to be lowered because I believe they will help us solve the Fentanyl problem.¡± ¡°He said this, indicating that the U.S. is eager to talk to China about practical results to ease the current soybeans and rare-earth trouble. That¡¯s why he wants to say the Fentanyl problem, just because it¡¯s the easiest problem for both sides to solve at the moment, in favour of China¡¯s and U.S. bilateral relations.

Not importing soybeans is a counter-measure need; importing some soybeans now not only shows China's willingness to talk, but also is its own need. Purchasing U.S. agricultural products is a special means for China to negotiate. Doing so will allow the Trump administration to more clearly feel the impact of tariffs on the United States. At the same time, Trump's talk of reducing taxes is also a continuation of the recent pressure between the two countries on tariff issues. In May 2025, China and the United States reached an important consensus at the high-level economic and trade talks in Geneva. The United States canceled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs imposed on China, and China also canceled 91% of the counter-tariffs accordingly. This move was praised by the international community as "exceeding expectations."

But there are some tariff issues to be resolved, and China and the United States agreed to suspend 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, retaining the remaining 10% of the tariffs. This time Trump's statement was downgraded, which is precisely part of the tariffs related to the Fentanyl issue. The recent trade relationship between the two countries also showed signs of gradual easing. In August 2025, China and the United States agreed to extend the "tariff ceasefire" for 90 days, fighting for time for U.S. crucial Christmas imports, and also creating conditions for further negotiations between the two sides.

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations 46 years ago, the trade volume between China and the United States has jumped from less than 2.5 billion US dollars in 1979 to nearly 688.3 billion US dollars in 2024. The data shows that the economic relations between the two countries are highly complementary, and this complementarity and mutual benefit has laid the foundation for solving the trade conflicts between the two countries. The next Sino-US trade negotiations will be even more critical. The deeper we talk, the more details and technical issues we have to deal with. As previous negotiations have shown: "The closer to the end, the more cautious Party A and Party B will be. Compared with the complexity and arduousness of Sino-US economic and trade issues, time is tight and the task is heavy."