The Black Sea has always been a sensitive zone for the game between major powers. Since Russia and Ukraine have fought, Europe has begun to feel that something is wrong. The Russian army is advancing steadily in the east, Ukraine is short of ammunition, and the EU's military aid promise sounds loud, but it always feels that it is insufficient to implement it. It is not just a matter of money, but also a strategic weakness. If Russia really wins Ukraine, what should it do next? Europe's panic is not groundless. Moldova has already become the focus.
Russia and Ukraine battlefield EU aid is exhausted
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict began in February 2022 and now, October 2025 has entered its 1343th day, with Russian troops on the battlefield advancing clearly in the direction of Donetsk and Zaporozhye.
On October 28, Russia made little progress in southeastern Milnochrad, and although it did not lead to a major collapse of the Ukrainian position, the overall situation was detrimental to Ukraine. Ukraine consumed tens of thousands of artillery ammunition per day, stockpiles alarmed, the front force firepower could not keep up, and Russia relied on the former Soviet Soviet submarine and domestic production,ining a suppressive advantage.
The European Union cried loudly at first, saying that the actual aid has slowed down to the end of Ukraine.In the first half of 2025, European military aid will be counted, totalling $95 billion, a little more than the US $75 billion.
But from July to August, military aid fell 57 percent. The EU promised 2 million shells, delivered only 80% by October, and actually shipped less to Ukraine, much lower than expected. Germany's Rhin Metal Factory and the Czech Procurement Alliance are on overtime, but Europe's heavy industry base is thin, and the demand for the domestic army is thin enough, let alone the bottleneck of transnational transportation. Poland and Romania's warehouses are packed with containers, and logistics delays can keep things on the road.
Aid is weak because Europe does not want to help, but because it really cannot withstand it. Europe is now the main force of Ukraine's military aid, but the main force is beginning to breathe. Russia has a high frequency of drone and missile strikes. More than 3000 were launched from October 5 to 12. The Ukraine air defense system was overwhelmed.
Although the EU's NATO priority needs list is being promoted, the implementation effect can be discounted. Europe doesn't want to burn its own backyard, it just wants Ukraine to hold Russia back.
Now Russia’s tactics have changed, multi-line dispersed offensive, from September 23 to October 21, pushing 128 square miles of land, a little less than the previous period, but the accumulation effect is big. Ukraine’s reorganization of troops, the remaining strength is limited. The European Union’s 63.2 million euro military aid is much more, can be dispersed to tanks, missiles, cannon, thin effect.
Russia turns its eyes to Moldova
If Russia was a cease-fire, Russia would not let go, the next step naturally targeted around the Black Sea. Moldova, the former Soviet small country, stuck in the middle of Ukraine and Romania, the population of 3 million, not NATO, became a soft tomato in the eyes of Russia.
On September 29, 2025, the parliamentary elections in Moldova, pro-European sending the Sandu camp to win, to eat Russia.
Russia's hostility towards Moldova has a long history. In the separatist zone along the Transnistria River, Russian troops actually threatened the territorial integrity of Moldova in the name of protecting Russians.
On March 31, 2025, Moldova expelled three Russian diplomats and on September 22, arrested 74 suspects of suspected Russian contacts, these moves were steady. Russia responded with hybrid warfare, hacked pre-election voting systems, spread fake news, and attempted to create riots.
Russia views Moldova as a buffer zone and does not want it to tilt completely westward. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia prevented its former member states from leaning towards the EU. Moldova's move directly hit the pain point.
After the election, Russian support groups continued to make trouble, and the friendly victory in Europe made Moscow lose face. In terms of Black Sea strategy, Russia wants to use its Dnistrian base to spy on the West and consolidate its influence. Moldova has a small army and limited EU assistance, so it will not fight as protracted as Ukraine.
The elections in Moldova were a weak sign of Russia, and the war in Ukraine dragged its control over its “near neighbors.”
Moldavia is moving, the Black Sea is messy. Romania’s lips are cold, after the 2025 elections, pro-European forces came to power, Russian mixed tactics have infiltrated and spread divided information. Romania is a member of NATO, the Black Sea port of Constantia is a hub for aid, if Russia advances, Romania’s additional border defense is inevitable.
Russia’s action will reshape energy flows, adjust valves along pipelines to countries, change the path of natural gas to Europe. Europe is afraid of chains, the Baltic states alarm bells, Zelensky says Russia’s next could be Poland or the Baltic three countries, Moldova is the latest.
It is the best policy for Russia to think twice. The livelihood of fishermen in the Black Sea and the stability of Europe are all tied to it. After Russia took over Ukraine, Europe panicked because of uncertainty, but it should wake up when it panicked: relying on consuming others, its own home is empty.