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Editor | L.Y.

Preliminary

Trump recently spoke to congratulating U.S. soldiers on the U.S. aircraft carrier George Washington in Japan, saying, ¡°If we go to war, we will win the war.¡±This speech, which took place the day after the U.S. aircraft carrier Nimitz crashed in the South China Sea, was obviously not a mere encouragement of morality, but a clear war signal.

The aircraft carrier speech at Yokohama Air Force Base is one of the most noticeable aspects of Trump¡¯s visit to Japan. According to the schedule announced by the United States and Japan on Oct. 23, Trump and Ho Chi Minh had planned to hold bilateral talks only at the base, and the boarding speech was a temporary additional arrangement the day before the incident. On the same day, the ¡°George Washington¡± aircraft carrier deck was deliberately cleaned out of the visiting area, and the F-35C of the Fifth Fleet Flight Coalition was arranged in a fighting posture, and the AIM-120 air-air missile hanging under the wings was clearly visible ¡ª this was the first time the ship had completed a medium-term major repair.

In Trump's 15-minute speech, he mentioned the Nimitz accident in only three sentences, saying that "the bravery of the crew is admirable and the investigation will soon find out the cause." Then the topic changed and focused on "Victory" theme. "We deploy the most powerful fleet in the world, and the USS Washington is the best proof." He raised his hand and pointed at the fighter jets on the deck."These F-35Cs can break through the defense line in any weather, and the MQ-25 drone can make them fly farther. There is no match for such a force." During his speech, Takashi Saami always stood behind the back and nodded many times, confirming the coordinated attitude of the US-Japan alliance.

The details of the scene revealed a strong deterrent meaning. The U.S. military specially arranged for the pilots of the 147th Fighter Squadron, which had just been deployed to Iwakuni base, to attend. The squadron is the first F-35C combat unit stationed in Japan, and only completed the cooperative training with the "Washington" last month. After the speech, Trump shook hands with the pilots one by one, and the camera captured him saying to a pilot, "Your task is to ensure that no one dares to challenge the United States." This scene was broadcast in real time by the US Navy's official website, deliberately amplifying the signal transmission effect.

From ¡°accident response¡± to ¡°force show¡±

The accident of the Nimitz was supposed to have caused the U.S. military to reflect on the risk of deploying at the forefront, but it was a strong opportunity for Trump to show up. On October 26th, from 14:45 to 15:15, the Nimitz had two consecutive A-class accidents in the South China Sea, the crashed MH-60R helicopter and the F/A-18F fighter were both anti-submarine and air-controlled main aircraft, directly affecting the aircraft carrier combat group's operational capabilities. After the accident, the U.S. Pacific Fleet quickly blocked the area of the incident, but did not disclose specific coordinates, saying only "is investigating the possibility of mechanical failure".

When the outside speculated whether the U.S. military would adjust the deployment in the South China Sea, Trump¡¯s aircraft carrier speech gave an answer. Military expert Hunton pointed out that the ¡°Nimez¡± exposed equipment aging problem ¡ª¡ª the F/A-18F¡¯s average age has reached 25 years, the shortage of parts has caused maintenance difficulties ¡ª¡ª was the U.S. military¡¯s ¡°weak ribbon¡±, but Trump tried to offset the decline in deterrence caused by the accident through the ¡°Washington¡± ship¡¯s new combat force demonstration. It is even more noteworthy that when the accident occurred, the ¡°Nimez¡± was co-training with the ¡°Tripoli¡± aircraft carrier near the Philippines, plus the ¡°Washington¡± in the Pacific Ocean.

This logic of ¡°accidental coding deterrence¡± is not the first to appear.The US F-35C crashed in the South China Sea in 2024 and immediately mobilized the Reagan aircraft carrier to strengthen its cruise.On this occasion, Trump chose to embark at Yokohama, but also in view of the strategic value of the base ¨C from here, the aircraft carrier can arrive on the Korean Peninsula in 2 to 3 days and arrive in the Persian Gulf in 7 days, the ¡°central hub¡± of the U.S. military deployment in the western Pacific.On the day of the speech, the U.S. Navy¡¯s Seventh Fleet issued a statement, saying that the ¡°Washington¡± has completed the autumn cruise preparation, is about to replace the ¡°Reagan¡± to carry out its

Improved combat support

Trump's "triumphalism" relies heavily on the upgrade of the USS George Washington. This nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, which was first deployed to Japan in 2008, entered a shipyard for overhaul in 2017. Due to epidemic and manpower problems, the upgrade was delayed until 2024. It was tested again in May this year and returned to Yokosuka Base to complete aircraft carrier qualification certification on October 18. This transformation not only replaces nuclear fuel, but more importantly, realizes the iteration of carrier-based aircraft-replacing the old "Super Hornet" with F-35C and installing the MQ-25 carrier-based drone tanker. The combat radius is expanded to more than 1500 kilometers.

According to the technical parameters released by the U.S. Navy, the upgraded "Washington" can carry 44 carrier aircraft, 24 of which are F-35C, with hidden defense and synergy capabilities.MQ-25 drone joining is more strategic, it can carry 6.8 tons of fuel for air-fuel fighter aircraft, so that the F-35C stay time extended for 2 hours, which means that the aircraft carrier battle group can launch attacks in the area far from the shore base defense this configuration to increase the "Washington"'s comprehensive battle force by 40% ".

The deployment rhythm of aircraft carriers also serves strategic deterrence. On October 24th, the "Washington" just finished its docking in Manila Bay, completed a joint exercise with the Philippine Navy, and then returned to Yokosuka to welcome Trump's visit. This compact arrangement of "actual combat deployment-high-level appearance-redeployment" deliberately creates a state where the US military is "ready to fight at any time". Ship tracking data from the U.S. Naval Research Institute shows that as of October 27, the U.S. military has four aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, setting a record for deployment density since 2024.

Chain effects of regional situations

Trump's speech quickly triggered regional volatility.On the afternoon of October 27, China's Southern War Zone issued a notice saying that "the U.S. military activity in relevant waters and airspace has been fully monitored" and stressed "resolutely defending national sovereignty and maritime rights and interests".

The reaction of the neighboring countries was differentiated. Philippine President Marcos said at a press conference on the same day that he ¡°welcomed the US-Japanese contribution to regional security¡± and that the military then announced that it would hold a joint military exercise ¡°shoulder to shoulder¡± with the U.S. military in November, which grew by 30% compared to last year, while Vietnam¡¯s Foreign Ministry called on ¡°parts to remain restrained and avoid the conflict in military action¡±, fearing to be involved in the game of great powers. ASEAN Secretary-General Cao Cao posted on social media, emphasizing ¡°disagreements should be resolved through ASEAN-led mechanisms¡±, indirectly expressing concerns about the US military¡¯ deterrent attitude.

The Financial Times noted that while the U.S. military showed the new type of combat force of the ¡°Washington¡±, the ageing equipment exposed by the ¡°Nimez¡± is not an individual case ¨C the U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers, six of which need major repairs by 2026 and fewer than five can be deployed at any time.

As of October 29, the "Nimitz" is still conducting accident investigation in the South China Sea, and the "Washington" has completed replenishment and is expected to start its autumn cruise in early November. "The voyage of the 'Washington' will show the world the determination of the United States," Trump told reporters as he left the Yokosuka base. These remarks echoed the aircraft carrier's speech and further strengthened the strategic signal.

conclusion

The ¡°aircraft carrier show¡± after the accident, demonstrating the American military¡¯s deterrent intention and the declaration that if we want to participate in the war we must win, is both the benchmark of our own combat strength and the pressure on the regional pattern. But in the reality of equipping aging and strategic over-spending, whether such deterrence can be transformed into ¡°victory¡±, not a slogan can decide.

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