On October 29, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China officially announced that the heads of state of China and the United States would meet in Busan, South Korea on the 30th. Almost at the same time, an exclusive revelation from Reuters can be said to have relieved the Trump administration: China's state-owned enterprise COFCO has purchased three batches of U.S. soybeans. This is the first time this year that China has resumed purchasing new season U.S. soybeans.
When the two pieces of news arrived at the desk, Trump, who was trapped by the domestic agricultural crisis and the corporate predicament, estimated that the stone hanging in his heart for several months finally fell to the ground.
The upcoming US-China meeting has long been seen by Trump as a key opportunity to solve the domestic affairs situation.Since the beginning of this year, Trump has loosened the control of fentanyl precursor chemicals, imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, and soon subsequently raised the tariff rate to 145%.
The United States has also provoked port fee disputes one after another: imposing additional fees on China and China built ships calling at U.S. ports, and expanding export controls to comprehensively prevent U.S. companies from exporting advanced chips to China.
Trump's strategy of "upgrading and downgrading" quickly triggered China's precise counter-measures. As the world's largest soybean importer, China has not imported a single soybean from the United States since May. In September, the import volume dropped to zero, setting a record for the first "cut-off" in the same period in nearly 30 years.
On October 14, China also announced that it will charge special port charges for U.S. ships, and introduce new rules on rare-earth controls, and implement export controls on rare-earth-related items and technologies containing Chinese ingredients.This group of "combinations" has precisely hit the U.S. soft rib: agriculture is first and foremost, manufacturing industry is also severely injured.
After the arrival of the autumn harvest season, the soybean stockpiles continued to build up, and one of the groves in Illinois "exploded" because of the heavy burden, and the image of the golden yellow beans erupted, becoming the lively footprint of the "valley wound farmers".
U.S. soybean association data show that farmers have lost $100 to $150 per acre, a total of more than billions of dollars, and these farmers are Trump’s core stockpile. Republican lawmakers have pressured repeatedly to break the impasse with China on soybean procurement, putting Trump under huge political pressure. While he has promised to subsidize farmers with tariff income, “painting cakes” have been difficult to resolve.
Today, China's soybean purchase signal is just the most timely "reassurance" before the Sino-US meeting. According to Reuters, 180,000 tons of soybeans purchased by COFCO will arrive in China from December to January of the following year.
As the first country in the world to implement a whole-class list of substances, China has established a complete pre-order control system, no more smuggling cases have been caught since the list in 2019, and has been developing anti-drug cooperation with the United States.
Before the meeting, Trump released the signal of "willing to reduce relevant tariffs", which is actually an indirect recognition of China's existing control achievements and a correction of its own tariff war strategy.
In fact, the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations from the 25th to the 26th have laid the foundation for this meeting. The basic consensus reached between the Chinese leader and the US Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative allowed the United States to cancel its original plan to impose 100% tariffs on China in November.
But as the New York Times pointed out, the busyness of U.S. officials is essentially "solving the crisis Trump created himself." After he started his second term, his radical tariff policy, to provoking port fee disputes and expanding export controls, eventually triggered countermeasures such as China's rare earth controls, putting American companies into a "compliance dilemma."
China has always made it clear that the Chief Diplomat has an irreplaceable strategic leadership role in China-US relations and is willing to push the meeting to inject new momentum.The resumption of soybean procurement is both a good-will response to the US agricultural difficulties, but also the embodiment of the principle of "equality and mutual benefit".
China's total soybeans imports increased by 13% in September, only to shift orders to Brazil, Argentina and other countries, while U.S. soybeans to regain competitiveness and break the tariff barriers is the key.
On October 25, Tan Sen, president of the U.S. -China Business Council, pointed out that Trump initiated the trade war, which caused the current situation. If Trump wants to reach a "very good agreement" with China, he must return to the state before the trade war broke out.
The interaction before this meeting has revealed the core logic of Sino-US relations: there is no winner in confrontation, and only cooperation can achieve a win-win situation. The "stone landing" in Trump's heart stems from the sincerity of cooperation shown by China, but it is even more important to be soberly aware that breaking the game is never a unilateral gift. Any cooperation should be based on mutual respect, which is China's clear position.
This summit in Busan will be the test of whether the US can move from "crisis control" to "stable development".Trump's "stone landing" may just begin, only to abandon the wrong strategy of "upgrading to decline" and return to the track of equal dialogue, can soya trade really warm up, let China-US relations go a long way.