The Russia-Ukraine conflict will start in October 2025, which is already its third year, and the front line is still sewing. On October 21, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov publicly stated on a diplomatic occasion that Russia would not accept an immediate ceasefire unless Ukraine fully complied with Russian conditions, including territorial adjustments and demilitarization arrangements. When these words came out, they directly blocked some Western ceasefire proposals. Lavrov emphasized that any idea of freezing the current front line would not work, because that would give Ukraine time to regroup. He also said that the West's call for a ceasefire is to buy time for Zelensky, and Russia will not be fooled. After the words spread, there was a lot of international reactions. Some leaders in the United States and Europe originally wanted to promote negotiations, but the Russian side directly refused, resulting in the indefinite postponement of the summit between Trump and Putin. Russia's position is very clear and will not stop unless Ukraine follows their demands, which is tantamount to forcing Ukraine to surrender.
The day after Lavrov made his statement, on October 22, Ukraine President Zelensky ran to Linköping, Sweden, to meet with Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson. The two directly signed a letter of intent at Saab headquarters, planning to purchase 100 to 150 JAS-39 Gripen E fighter jets. This incident came suddenly. One day, Russia was still strongly refusing a ceasefire, and the next day, Ukraine made such a large arms purchase intention, which caused the international media to explode. The Gripen fighter is produced by Saab Company in Sweden. It is a light multi-role fighter jet that can fight air defense, ground attack, and long-range strikes. The E-model is the latest model. It comes with advanced radar, communication systems and sensors, and can carry more missiles. The Swedish Air Force just started using this E-type in early October 2025. If Ukraine obtains it, it will be able to greatly enhance its air force strength and counter Russia's air superiority.
The letter of intent is not a formal contract, and specific terms, price and delivery time have not yet been set, but Kristensson said that based on current production capacity, the first batch of deliveries will have to wait about three years. Zelensky was quite optimistic, saying that he hoped to receive and use these fighter jets in 2026. Ukraine pilots have tested the old Gripen in Sweden and used a simulator, so it is not difficult to get started. If 150 aircraft are finally sold, Ukraine will become the largest user of the Gripen E, more than Sweden, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa and Thailand combined. The total cost of the deal is estimated to be around US$20 billion, including ammunition, maintenance and training. Ukraine's own finances are tight and has to rely on Western aid to cover the bill.
Sweden signed the letter of intent, and the stock price immediately responded. Saab rose a lot that day, the largest increase in nearly five years. After Sweden joined NATO in 2024, its neutrality policy ended. This cooperation can help them gain a sense of presence in NATO and revitalize the military industry. Gripen fighter jets are not very popular in the international market and are only exported to a few countries. This letter of intent is a pie in the sky for Sweden and can drive employment and technological upgrades. Christensson said that this is a key step towards large-scale arms sales. If it is completed, it will be the largest defense export order in Swedish history. Saab CEO also quickly stated that even if there was no formal contract, this step was of great significance.
There are great differences of opinion within the EU on this matter. Eastern European countries such as Poland and Lithuania have always supported aid to Ukraine. They believe that a stronger Ukraine air force will be able to better withstand Russia and provide multi-layered guarantees for their own security. However, in Germany and France in Western Europe, the domestic people are a little tired of continued assistance, and there is a lot of political pressure to pay another 20 billion yuan. Hungary and Slovakia directly question sustainability, with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban saying at the EU summit that Europe is not a cash machine. The EU has provided tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine over the years, covering all weapons, budget and humanitarian affairs. This time, another big order comes, and the internal uproar has become chaotic. If we don't spend money, previous aid may be in vain and the momentum of Ukraine's war of resistance will also be affected; if we spend money, the finances will not be able to withstand it, and it may also cause disunity among member states. What is even more difficult is that the EU's money to buy Swedish fighter jets is equivalent to indirectly subsidizing Swedish military industries. Other countries, like Germany and France, are unbalanced and feel that the allocation of resources is unfair.
Russia responded quickly to the letter of intent. A Kremlin spokesman said that if Sweden provided fighter jets, it would be regarded as NATO's direct participation, and Russia reserved the right to respond militarily. They have deployed more S-400 air defense systems along the Baltic Sea coast to strengthen surveillance of Nordic airspace. After Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea almost became the inner sea of NATO, the pressure on Russia's northern border increased, the confrontation between Russia and Europe deepened, and the security situation in Europe became even tighter. Lavrov continued to reiterate that Russia will not cease fire unless Ukraine completely surrenders. He criticized Western calls for a ceasefire as stalling for time, and Russia was promoting battlefield superiority and would not give in.
Ukraine's financial situation is already tight. The Verkhovna Rada just passed a budget amendment on October 21, adding an additional 325 billion hryvnia to the defense budget, totaling 2.96 trillion hryvnia. However, this amount of money is a drop in the bucket for the 20 billion yuan purchase. Civil servants 'wages and pensions are paid by foreign aid. Zelensky's signing of the letter of intent was actually a political operation to stabilize the people's hearts and downplay the fatigue caused by the stalemate on the battlefield; externally, pressure the EU and continue to provide assistance. Ukraine used to rely on Western weapons and subsidies. This time, it used the name of arms procurement to turn aid from emergency to long-term and tie the EU tightly. Before Zelensky went to Sweden, Norway also provided an additional 1.5 billion Norway kroner in aid to help Ukraine buy natural gas to protect electricity and heating.
I intend to bookmark, but it is difficult to implement. The Swedish government has not yet approved the export license and Saab's production line has not yet started. Even if Ukraine obtains fighter jets, it will take time to train pilots, infrastructure, and logistics. The Gripen can take off and land from roads, which is suitable for large open areas in Ukraine, but integration into the air force system will not be achieved overnight. Sweden's Defense Minister said the new E model was sold after the war because of the high risks in conflict. A small number of old C/D models may be transitioned first, about 10.