Edited by Editorial Spectrum.
«--[· Preface ·]--»
On the 19th, Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban signed an armistice agreement in Doha. You should know that this year there have been constant border conflicts on the Duran Line. In March, Pakistan also carried out air strikes into Afghanistan, and in mid-October, the fighting became even more intense.
Thanks to the mediation of Qatar and Turkey, the two sides sat down and made an appointment to go to Istanbul to continue the talks on the 25th. The pressure on the western front of Pakistan was relieved.
As a result, Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement with Saudi Arabia not long after. Defense Minister Asif even bluntly said that he could provide support in nuclear technology. Doesn't this clearly give Saudi Arabia nuclear asylum? While stopping the war and forming an alliance, what is Pakistan planning and who is supporting it?
Where does Pakistan's confidence come from?
Many people are wondering why Pakistan has suddenly become so tough recently.
In fact, the reasons behind this are not complicated. Pakistan has a strong supporter behind it, that is China. Over the years, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has provided huge economic support to Pakistan, especially in infrastructure construction and the defense industry.
The cooperation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is no longer just symbolic. The two countries have invested more than US$25 billion. These funds are not only used to build infrastructure, but also directly promote Pakistan's economic growth.
The implementation of important projects such as Gwadar Port, rail transit, and hydropower stations has created a large number of job opportunities and effectively stimulated the local economy. The most important thing is that this cooperation method is not only to provide funds, but to "teach people to fish.".
In the past, Pakistan's defense industry had difficulty even repairing weapons, but now Pakistan has the ability to independently produce "Khalid" main battle tanks and "Xiaolong" fighter jets.
These results show that Pakistan has not only improved its technology, but has also taken a solid step on the road to self-sufficiency in national defense. Today, the annual output value of Pakistan's defense industry accounts for about 3% of its GDP, which has undoubtedly enhanced Pakistan's hard power.
Looking back at 2018, US-Pakistan relations were freezing point at that time. The United States directly suspended military assistance to Pakistan because it said it was "harbouring terrorists."
Under such circumstances, Pakistan has received support from China. Whether it is technical assistance or support from the United Nations, Pakistan can withstand pressure. This partnership of equal cooperation also gives Pakistan stronger bargaining chips when facing other major powers.
A master in the cracks
Pakistan has become more confident in recent years, especially on the international stage, where it dares to take the initiative to dance its own steps on the US-dominated chessboard.
The biggest supporting force behind it is the successful cooperation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and Pakistan's courage and strategy more fully reflect its flexibility and initiative in the game of major powers.
In 2021, the United States was eager to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, leaving a gap and urgently needed to find a regional partner who could stabilize the situation and provide intelligence. Pakistan keenly discovered this and seized this opportunity in a timely manner.
In 2022, after Pakistan's new Prime Minister Sharif came to power, he immediately courted the United States and expressed his willingness to strengthen bilateral cooperation. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken also immediately responded and supported "a strong and prosperous Pakistan." Immediately, high-level exchanges of visits between the two countries were resumed.
Pakistan's flexible diplomacy is not only a gesture, but also the beginning of tangible cooperation. In May 2022, Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal visited the United States.
In December 2023, Army Chief of Staff Munir went to the United States. He is a key player in the Pakistani military. Everyone knows that the Pakistani military holds the core power of the country. This visit obviously means that Pakistan-US cooperation has entered a new level.
The United States 'assistance is not unconditional. For example, the United States provided US$390 million for the maintenance of F-16 fighter jets, with the proviso that Pakistan must accept real-time monitoring by the United States.
The United States also promised to invest US$3 billion in shale oil projects in Pakistan, but the project location was cleverly chosen to be close to Gwadar Port, obviously to guard against the influence of Chinese companies.
Pakistan does not rely solely on the United States. It cleverly cooperates with the United States and uses its support to strengthen domestic security, especially to crack down on the "Baluchistan Liberation Army" in the country, ensuring the stability of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
At the same time, Pakistan has not relied entirely on the United States, but has maintained cooperation with many major powers. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Russia in 2022, becoming the first Pakistan leader to visit Russia in 23 years.
In addition to these, Pakistan is also engaged in diplomatic contacts with neighboring countries such as Afghanistan, while Qatar and Turkey are behind it and helping mediate conflicts.
This shows that Pakistan has formed a multi-level diplomatic network between world powers and regional forces, which can not only maintain its independent position in the game of major powers, but also respond flexibly in complex international situations.
Pakistan worries India
Pakistan's diplomatic operations in recent years have made India quite uneasy. India and the United States have long cooperated under the framework of the Indo-Pacific Strategy, especially in the Quadripartite Security Dialogue (Quad). India hopes to use the power of the United States to suppress Pakistan's influence.
However, the pragmatism of the United States has greatly reduced India's strategic investment. For its own benefit, the United States has turned to warming up relations with Pakistan, which has caught India off guard in this major country game.
This capriciousness of the United States has put India in a diplomatic passive position. India has been trying to deal with Pakistan by forming a "two-pronged" approach, that is, by forming an alliance with the United States to strengthen pressure on Pakistan.
As the situation between Pakistan and Afghanistan gradually stabilizes and its relations with Saudi Arabia become closer, India's strategic advantage is rapidly disintegrating.
In the past, India believed that it could form a pincer attack on the east and west sides of Pakistan, but now Pakistan is no longer isolated, but has gained more diplomatic support. As a result, India's "pincer attack tactics" have faced double pressures, but it has fallen into potential "two-way constraints."
What makes India even more anxious is that after the news that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a joint defense agreement was exposed, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs could only express its hope that Saudi Arabia would take into account India's "sensitive concerns" when handling bilateral relations.
India's reaction obviously reflects uneasiness in its heart. You should know that Saudi Arabia is India's fifth largest partner, and India is also Saudi Arabia's second largest partner. Now that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are deepening cooperation, India's position is directly facing major challenges.
What India is really worried about is not Pakistan's single military strength, but that Pakistan will no longer be isolated. A Pakistan with more friends and a bigger stage will fundamentally subvert India's pursuit of regional dominance.
To put it bluntly, Pakistan's series of performances are simply a textbook-level game between major powers. It has grasped the characteristics of the times of competition among major powers in the world and brought its own geographical value to the peak.
Its core strategy is actually very clear: to use solid China-Pakistan relations as the strategic cornerstone and ballast stone, and then use a flexible and pragmatic posture to deal with all parties, ultimately successfully leveraging the regional pattern and winning an unprecedented strategic space for itself.
The gameplay in South Asia may really change. I'm afraid the old rules of the past will no longer work. In the future, the ups and downs of the situation in this land will be more interesting and lively than before.