The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
Facing China's rare earth control, on October 24, Bundesbank President NagelSpeaking out, he first threw a phrase "to take revenge must be a little harder", turning the eye and emphasizing "it is better to talk", this contradictory attitude is worth noting.
Just the day before, on October 23, Macron’s “nuclear option” was to be applied. Anti-Coercive Tools ActHe wanted to threaten China with this, after he finished his speech. The European Commission then invited China to visit Brussels this week.
European Unionused to Permanent magnetsRare earth refining Almost 100% completed in China， About 97% of magnesium comes from ChinaThese are just the needs of motors, power semiconductors, frequency converters, and industrial control equipment.
After China updated its export controls on October 9The supply of key raw materials has decreased, and the procurement departments of several German factories have evaluated the inventory safety line overnight, fearing that the production rhythm will be disrupted.
October 21st, Mr. Wang Tzu and EU Trade CommissionerVideo communication, clearly stated that China's side is a reasonable measure, talking about the situation is useless, that is, is Europe's side is overly dependent on China's raw material exports, China's measures are reasonable adjustments made according to the market.
Europe, of course, is not willing to get stuck with raw materials like this, and the EU Commission's Key Raw Materials Act gives quotas, permits, recycling targets, and another way is to re-engage. The ResourceEU StrategyThis is a plan to reduce energy dependence on Russia, which has now been restarted. Reduce dependence on Chinese raw materials。
Overlay recycling, joint procurement, strategic reservesThese plans are all feasible but must be considered timelyIf so, it may not work. The mining license cycle is often 27 months, the recycling project starts in 15 months, and Environmental issuesWe must pay attention, and the whole project is very burning money, and burning money can not solve the problem in time.
Some in Europe. The Chinese car.In order to weaken the impact of this central-European trade friction, Return homeByad, for example, turned the focus to Hungary and Turkey. Bypassing tariffs and rules of origin。
It stands to reason that Europe is being restricted by China, so why does Nagel dare to say so?
In the third quarter of 2025, Germany's automobile exports to the United States fell by about 6% year-on-year. The follow-up impact of the tariff impact is still there, and it may be even more uncomfortable in 2026. Domestic manufacturingFacing a huge crisis.
There is another hidden danger that cannot be ignored, that is High technology industry., the European Semiconductor Index rose considerably during the year, But the increase in AI-related orders is getting smaller, fewer orders, less profit, industry enthusiasm will also decrease, and enthusiasm for R&D and innovation will also decrease.
The Anti-Coercion Tools Act was finalized as early as the end of 2023, but it has never been used before. The reason is not that the legal provisions are not strict enough, but Member states have different goalsGermany and the Netherlands value the Chinese market, but the law is too tough, and the two countries do not want to lose the Chinese market. Unity within the EU.。
The Key Raw Materials Act is also for this reason that the internal unification is not achieved, so regulations are difficult to operate.
The academic community has taken a sample assessment of supply chain risk layers. China is in the “low-risk-high influence” cluster, while the EU is in the “mid-risk” zone.
The main point of this sentence is not the rating level, but the Structural location, who held it Key links of refining, separation and metallurgy, who has more control over pricing power and volatility power. Looking at this layer apart, Nagel's "tough retaliation" is more like a kind of negotiation positionThe exhibition needs to express determination and also to turn the ladder.
ResourceEU proposal promoted by the European Commission Expand the proportion of recycled materials, establish strategic reserves, and carry out joint procurementThese movements, if they can be grounded, can relieve some short plates within two to three years, but for permanent magnetic rare earth and high purity uranium. Short term replacementstill difficult to understand.
The industrial chain is long-term accumulation, slowly fixed, before and after processes, purity control, environmental protection standards, every detail can't go wrong.
Chinese car companies have not given up on the European market. Instead, they have taken advantage of the malaise of internal European car dealers during this period. Open a large number of stores, shop density and service network quickly expandRegardless of the price, intelligence, iterative speed, and so on, in all aspects, they are definitely better than their native cars, and they get very smoothly. Competitive advantages。
The European government is unhappy. Local industry is hit.The Chinese car company. Employment and consumer welfareIt is also imperceptible that European governments are caught up in contradictions and have to choose between the two.
Bundesbank President Nagel spoke to China, actually out of supply chain considerations and out of Concerns about our industry.。
But crying out can’t solve the problem, or it needs to be negotiated with China and reached. Mutual benefit and win-win。
Germany and France are both facing serious crisesCompanies have only a handful of quarterly cash flows and orders, and France is constrained by the service industry and investment coldness. Therefore, Nagel's attitude is so contradictory, and he wants to target China, and he wants to talk well with China.
Overdependence on supply chainsIt would be a huge hidden danger, and the EU is developing various measures that can reduce the dependence on Chinese raw materials, whether or not it is useful. Not a short time to succeed.If you want to solve short-term problems, you need to sit down and have a good talk with China.
If you blindly want to fight head-on with China and take some tough measures against China, you will only lose yourself in the end.
References:
The Governor of the German Central Bank vowed: If China’s retaliation is the last move, it would be a big deal 2025-10-25 11:25:23
The Council approves the Key Raw Materials Act affecting geometry 2024-03-19 18:18 PM