Russia's battle in Ukraine has now been fought, more than three years have passed, it was thought to be a short and quick action, and the result is dragged into such a pot, the lost tanks and armoured vehicles are mounted, and the number of soldiers' casualties is heavy at a glance.
This is not only a military failure, but also a mistake in strategic judgment.
The situation in Russia and Uzbekistan is not the same thing as the Taiwan Strait. The Strait is more than 100 nautical miles wide and it is much more difficult to land, but the lessons are common. Deeply underestimate the resilience of opponents and ignore the disturbance of foreign forces. If you step on these pits, no one will be able to withstand the consequences.
China must tighten two points: first, do not take Taiwan's military power as paper blank; second, the intervention of the United States and its allies can be counted to live.
When the fighting started, Moscow intelligence services looked down on the Ukraine army, thinking that they could crush Kiev in a few days. As a result, since the incident in Crimea in 2014, Ukraine began to use big moves, reorganize troops, practice guerrillas, and hoard equipment. As soon as the Russian tank cluster charged forward, it was greeted by javelin missiles. The flank armor was weak and a large area was blown up.
In the outskirts of Kharkov and Kiev, the Ukrainian troops hid in civilian houses and fortifications, shoulder weapons locked targets, the Russian logistics line was stretched, the supply fleet was cut off on the countryside, communication was cut off, the departments were like sand.
According to statistics from Western think tanks, the Russian army lost thousands of tanks, with hundreds of thousands of casualties, and the Black Sea Fleet also suffered a lot of lightning. Intelligence distortion is no small matter. Satellite images look like Ukraine is in a mess. In fact, they have a lot of family assets hidden in the mountains and underground, and their morale is as high as chicken blood.
Furthermore, Russia did not expect Western aid to come so fiercely.
As soon as Washington and the European Union came out, the source of the gunfire, the Hamas, the Patriot system continued to pass, and the Ukrainian air force, although weak, but the air defense network pulled up, the Russian missiles hit straight down.
The sanctions were harsher, financial freezes, industrial chains broken, the Russian side lacked parts when repairing tanks, soldiers on the front lines chewed cookies and didn’t wait for hot meals.
The command system is aging, space synergies cannot be followed, the information war is lost, the signal is interrupted when the troops advance, officers ride horseback orders. Economic mobilization can not keep up with ambition, the ruble devaluation, factory production cuts, these problems overlap, allowing the Russian army to struggle from rapid victory to dungeon.
These problems should be put aside in the Taiwan Strait, so we should be more vigilant.
For example, the Russian Air Force has a tight budget and outdated equipment, and Ukraine has ruined its air superiority by using drones and missiles. The Chinese Air Force is modernizing rapidly, but over the strait, it has to guard against the joint patrol of F-35 and its allies.
The navy was built to the wind, the world's largest fleet, can land on the beach is a blood-meat grinder, the Russian army in the siege of Mariupol, the Ukrainian naval troops guarded the steel factory, the house by house cleaned, the Russian workers can not push the bulldozers.
First, don’t underestimate the military power of Taiwan.
Taiwanese people see Russia clearly, in July 2025, Hankook exercises unprecedented scale, simulated landing blockade, air force F-16 hanging fork missile cruise, ground forces practice non-symmetric combat, shoulder weapons aimed at hypothetical landing boats.
At first, Russia thought that Ukraine was collapsing, but it suffered a tenacious counterattack. Tanks slipped in the mud and soldiers climbed out of the wreckage to disarm.
The same is true of Taiwan Province Province. Decades of preparation are not in vain. The chip factory is the lifeblood, but the military layout has long been stuck.
Second, we must keep a close eye on the depth of intervention of the United States and the West. As soon as Russia and Ukraine started fighting, Washington was stuck. Aid was running through, the European Union followed suit, and Japan and South Korea were holding back. In 2025, although Ukraine's aid fluctuated after Trump came to power, the baseline remained intact. The F-16 was transported over, the pilot runway taxied and took off, and the missile pylon rear-ended the Su-35.
The sanctions left the Russian oil fleet lying down, the Black Sea coastal factory smoke black smoke. In the Taiwan Sea, the United States viewed Taiwan province as the key to the Pacific, Taiwan's electricity shut down, the chip chain broke, Guam's Okinawa aircraft carrier group turned, and the E-2 early warning aircraft winged the sea wind.
In May 2025, a US think tank report pointed out that the risk of US intervention was high when China landed.
Russia ignored this layer, the supply line was smashed by Haimas, and the economy could not withstand it. China has to lay out early, and its troops are divided, with one end blocking the island and the other end preparing for the open sea. Diplomatically, Latin America neutral countries, diplomatic envoys to ASEAN hand in white papers, and project the boundary of icons.
China reiterates that it strives for international understanding and sovereign internal affairs. Biting these two points to death, being prepared, and protecting peace is the long-term plan.
reference
The Russian conflict brings five lessons to modern warfare