The Preface:
Smoke fills the fertile soil of eastern Ukraine, and the stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues.
While Zelensky refused to talk about territory for peace, he hyped up false accusations and deceived himself between his tough stance and the declining battlefield, making the dawn of peace even more remote.
Where will the war in the Russia-Ukraine conflict eventually spread?
Lies and truth under the smoke of gunpowder
The war situation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is far from as easy as Zelensky said.
The actual reality is that the Russian army continues to advance, but the Ukrainian army is seriously lost.
In recent years, the actual territory controlled by the Russian army has increased by more than 5,000 square kilometers, while the Ukrainian army has only regained less than 100 square kilometers. As of the end of May 2025, Russia has controlled many pre-war territory in Ukraine.
Moreover, when the Russian military launched a mass offensive on Ukraine in May last year, it occupied almost 300 square kilometers in a week, achieving the biggest outcome since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian troops were forced to evacuate from several villages, even if the situation was officially declared "controllable", and in fact had lost the initiative of the battlefield.
Since spring this year, the Russian army's offensive advancement has further accelerated. In May, it occupied an area of 500 square kilometers in a single month, but the Ukrainian army has basically lost its ability to counterattack.
As for military losses, Ukraine's personnel and equipment are almost exhausted.
According to Russian sources, the total number of Ukrainian soldiers killed and wounded has exceeded 1.7 million, of which more than 600 million will be lost in 2025, and the number of casualties will rise year by year.
In terms of equipment, the Ukrainian army has accumulated losses of more than 20,000 tanks, 440,000 drones, and 22,000 artillery guns, almost exhausting the inventory of equipment aided by the West, subsequent supply is difficult to follow.
Looking at society and basic people's livelihood, Ukraine is also quite miserable.
Economically, Ukraine’s GDP is still significantly different from before the war, unemployment is high, most households have low incomes, and some people find it difficult to maintain their livelihoods.
In Ukraine, large-scale infrastructure has been paralyzed due to war, massive labor loss due to military recruitment, information technology industry and education sector wage gap more than three times, and social differentiation has increased.
In terms of internal and external relations, the previous Western policy of Ukraine seems to have failed, and it is also unstable internally.
Western aid gradually shrank. The Trump administration proposed a "rare earth for aid" agreement, requiring control of 50% of Ukraine's mineral reserves. After Zelensky refused, the United States and Russia met privately and pressured Uzbekistan to accept the conditions.
At the same time, internal contradictions broke out in Ukraine, Zelensky's support fell below 50% in June 2025 and former Ukrainian army commander-in-chief Zaru Zhenin's poll reached 90%, which is considered a "alternative candidate".
At the same time, the public’s questioning of the government’s credibility has also been aroused.
Zelensky concealed the truth.
To these facts, Zelensky hid the truth of battlefield casualties and losses.
The Zelensky government only released official data that "46,000 people were killed and 380,000 were injured." However, the current situation of saturated cemeteries in Ukraine and the urgent construction of new cemeteries, as well as the "more than 1.7 million casualties" disclosed by Russian media and hacker organizations, exposed its data fraud.
In the face of major losses such as Kharkov’s loss of land, he always declared that the situation was “controllable”, “prevented the Russian army from standing on foot”, and deliberately weakened the force of the battlefield.
At the same time, he also imagined the value of resources and the prospects for aid.
To seek aid from the West, Zelensky claimed that Ukraine has "Europe's largest uranium mine", "22 key minerals of the EU", and attracted the Trump administration to propose a mineral deal, but its former lawmakers revealed that the so-called rare-earth resources are mostly located in war zones, and there is no actual mining value, and the U.S. Geological Investigation Agency does not record the rare-earth reserves, which is "a lie to deceive the world."
He frequently exaggerated that "the West is about to increase aid", but avoided talking about the facts such as shrinking aid and private negotiations between the United States and Russia.
Moreover, he tried his best to avoid the internal crisis and power dispute of the country.
Zelensky, who refused to hold a general election last year on the grounds of "state of war", was questioned for continuing power through the war, but declared to the outside "to safeguard national security".
In response to soldiers' families' protests against "not being allowed to be retired after the expiration of service" and people's dissatisfaction with the policy of "fighting to the last person", he diverted his attention by reshuffling the cabinet instead of solving the core contradictions, and was even exposed to trying to cover up the corruption case of the defense chief.
Its attitude from “prohibiting negotiations with Putin” has suddenly shifted to “proactively seeking reconciliation”, but hides the reality behind U.S. pressure and the decline in domestic support.
There are many possibilities for the future direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
There are many possibilities regarding the future situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Maybe it will fall into a long-term stalemate and "frozen conflict". The conflict may reach a deadlock, and the two sides form a stable ceasefire line, but it is difficult to sign a formal peace treaty.
At present, it is difficult for Russia and Uzbekistan to achieve decisive victory on the battlefield, and the interests and demands of all parties are very different. Low-intensity exchanges of fire may continue, which will put the country in a quasi-war state for a long time, with high security risks and hindered economic development.
But it is also possible to negotiate a compromise peace. After a long period of time, all parties may return to the negotiating table exhausted. If Western aid continues to decrease, the pressure on negotiations in Ukraine will increase and may be forced to make concessions on territorial issues and recognize the actual control status of Crimea and parts of Ukraine in exchange for formal security guarantees and commitment to join the EU.
However, in view of recent war conditions, Ukraine has dramatically escalated its drone attacks on the Russian mainland, bringing the war to the Russian mainland, breaking the psychological distance of the Russian people from the war.
At the same time, Russia has also launched attacks on multiple frontline lines, and the military confrontation between the two sides has a tendency to escalate. If this situation continues, the conflict may worsen further, causing more casualties and property losses.
After all, the President of Belarus has warned Ukraine that if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not resolved politically, Ukraine could eventually be removed from the map.
The smoke has not dissipated, the game is still silent.The battlefield is intertwined with US-Russian secret talks, Zelensky's lies are difficult to cover up people's acne, and peace must ultimately be searched hard at the cost of interest and reality.
References:
Air strike on Kiev, Ukraine, kills 3 and injurs 32
202510/2619:59:05 Source: New China Network
The direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict after the "Summer Offensive"
2025-10-22 14:10:27 Source: Globe Magazine
Russia-Ukraine large-scale drone exchange attacks set a new record for the scale of drone operations
2025-10-28 16:36:02 China.com