Trump has already opened his trip to Asia, taking the first stop straight to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for the ASEAN Summit.
According to American media, the trip was "fruitful." Trump not only brokered Cambodia and Thailand to sign a new "peace agreement", making the two countries commit to withdrawing heavy weapons on the border and launching joint demining, but also brought officials from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and other countries to discuss trade cooperation, implying between the lines that ASEAN countries are more willing to follow the United States.
But the United States obviously did not expect that Trump's special aircraft just flew from Kuala Lumpur, the ASEAN countries immediately turned their face, and the leaders of many countries did not leave, instead of staying in the venue and continuing to meet, with the theme of "how to hold on to trade protectionism". It also quickly invited six key partners including China, India, and Japan, and held the RCEP summit again after five years.
More important things are yet to come. On the second day after the RCEP summit, ASEAN held its second meeting with China non-stop. At the meeting, Malaysia directly represented ASEAN and officially signed the protocol of the upgraded version 3.0 of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area with China.
Trump's "Nobel Prize Show": The seemingly magnificent agreement simply cannot withstand careful consideration
As soon as Trump's special plane landed in Kuala Lumpur, the American media was busy boasting about his "mediation skills"-saying that he had brokered Thailand and Cambodia to sign a "peace agreement" and had also pulled four ASEAN countries to finalize trade cooperation. But if you take a closer look, these so-called "achievements" are all false pretenses.
First of all, the Taj Campaign statement, which was blown out by Trump as a "historic breakthrough", on the surface wrote withdrawal of weapons and disposal of mines, in fact, these things have already been laid.
More importantly, this is a political statement, not even a legally binding. Trump rushed to invite the work, not only to say he "solved the conflict", but also hoping to rely on this Nobel Peace Prize, the result of not a few days Nobel Prize to others, this self-listed "peace drama", in the end became a embarrassing single-person.
As for the trade agreements signed between the United States and countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam, Bloomberg directly broke the doorway between them - "relevantly flexible" and without a legal effect.
The United States granted Malaysia exemptions from 1711 tariff items. It seemed generous, but it turned around and put forward conditions: Malaysia would have to invest US$70 billion in the United States in the next ten years, buy Boeing aircraft, and reduce tariffs on agricultural products.
Thailand and Vietnam have also been asked to cut tariffs on U.S. commodities, but these pledges are all verbal to say that one day the White House will say nothing else.
ASEAN countries are very clear in their hearts. After signing the letter, Malaysian Minister of Trade and Industry Zaffru specifically emphasized that "no agreements affecting sovereignty will be signed." The meaning behind his words is very clear: this is to give Trump face and cannot be true.
Meeting rooms without spaces: ASEAN and others are real partners who can do things
On October 26th, Trump's special plane just flew out of Kuala Lumpur, and the ASEAN leaders who stayed at the summit immediately changed the topic.
The venue that was supposed to end was brightly lit. Representatives from six partners including China, India, and Japan were hurriedly invited in. The RCEP summit, which had been suspended for five years, suddenly opened, and the topic went straight to "How to withstand trade protectionism."
This move hides ASEAN's real anxiety.These years, the United States steadfastly increased tariffs and engaged in "breaking off the chain", but ASEAN's trade with China in 2024 will soon reach $ 1 trillion, which is twice as much as the trade with the United States.
China has been ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, and ASEAN has been firmly in the position of China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years. The industrial chains of both sides have long been entangled-Thailand's auto parts have to be processed by Chinese machine tools, 70% of Malaysia's palm oil is sold to China, and Vietnam's electronic products have to be assembled in China before they can be sold to the world. What Trump wants is to "choose sides", but what ASEAN wants is stable cooperation that can make money and resist risks.
At the RCEP summit, Prime Minister Li said: “Release the potential of their own markets to strengthen the backbone of resistance to external risks.”
At the meeting, all parties agreed to not only speed up the upgrading of RCEP, but also support the joining of China Hong Kong, just to strengthen this large market covering 2 billion people. This is not a "turning against each other". It is clear that after Trump left, ASEAN can finally do business with freedom.
A reassurance signed on paper: Free Trade Zone Version 3.0 hides a win-win doorway
Just after the RCEP summit, ASEAN held a special meeting with China the next day. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar personally watched, and Minister of Trade and Industry Zafru signed the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Version 3.0 Protocol with Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao on behalf of ASEAN. This agreement, which has been negotiated for nearly two years, can be regarded as a real hammer to the cooperation between the two parties.
Compared with the tariff reduction and exemption of version 1.0 and the investment opening of version 2.0, version 3.0 takes the hard-core path of "rule co-construction".
In the newly added digital economy field, both parties directly temporarily exempt electronic transmission tariffs. In the future, there will be no "tolls" for game recharges in Southeast Asia and cross-border e-commerce data exchanges in China; The green economy is more detailed, from new energy vehicles to photovoltaic modules, and even sustainable finance is included. Experts from Thailand's Kasikorn Bank can't help but sigh: "China's technology and cost advantages come too timely."
The most critical thing is the supply chain chapter, which clarifies that key products can flow freely and also establishes a risk early warning mechanism. Even if external sanctions are encountered in the future, ASEAN minerals and China parts can be smoothly connected.
The agreement is not a temporary decision. from 2021 President Xi Jinping put forward the idea, to 2022 to start negotiations, then to 2025 to clarify the details, in two years talked about nine rounds of formal consultations, held more than 120 working group meetings, each paragraph is hardened and real.
For small ASEAN countries, small and medium-sized micro enterprises can enter the Chinese market at a low cost; for Chinese enterprises, digital identity and artificial intelligence have regional standards; for the entire region, even if the United States engages in trade protection, cooperation in these nine major areas can support the economic basic disk.
ASEAN countries in fact have a real account in their hearts: signing with the United States is a flexible clause of "face to face", and signing with China is a real cooperation of "to carry things."
This version 3.0 of the protocol is not so much a sudden "heavy signing", but rather a sign that both sides have seen through the false fire of unilateralism and used practical cooperation to provide reassurance to the volatile regional economy.
Source of information:
What does China and ASEAN enter the 3.0 era?
Trump again out, witnessing Taipei signing a peace declaration