Preliminary
Hundreds of thousands of Indian troops suddenly pushed toward the border with Pakistan, and the cannons were coming to mind!
The Pakistani Railway brothers here have not yet regained their senses, but their old neighbor in the west, Afghanistan, has followed suit. The crackling of guns and guns has been heard. This is not the end. Their backyard, Baluchistan Province, has also followed suit. Terrorist attacks one after another.
Good guys, this is to push Pakistan to death! today we will talk, this "South Asian barrel" will not explode at all, can Barthes this time bear this robbery!
Indian military gathering, exercise or provocation?
Things have to start at the end of October. The Indian army, including the navy, army and air force, rushed to the western border area and announced that it would conduct a 12-day large-scale joint military exercise from October 30th to November 10th.
The battle of the exercise was not small, the locations selected in the border area of Gujarat and Rajasthan state, against Pakistan's province of Sind, and more importantly, the core area of the exercise close to the two historically struggling seas of Silk Creek, which is a sensitive spot.
The Indian Ministry of Defense said that this is a "high-intensity, multi-domain combat" exercise, to practice land and sea-air coordinated strikes, rapid mobility, also to practice electronic warfare, the participation in the exercise is also good, such as the French "Wind" fighter jets, the Russian T-90 main battle tanks, various missiles, destroyers and drones.
The spokesman of the Indian military spoke quite straightforwardly, stressing that the exercises were "highly practical", and emphasized how to "train the war", and people at once understood that this situation is not just as simple as practicing troops.
Although the Indian media helped explain that it was "routine training," Pakistan was not stupid. The Pakistani military immediately panicked and announced that the national army was on maximum alert.
Pakistan Air Force Chief of Staff Navid Ashraf said directly that all fighter jets of the Air Force are ready, and that radars are watching India's every move around the clock and ready to counterattack at any time. In Pakistan's view, India has clearly picked a "good time" and has come with bad intentions.
Emergency on the Western Front: Smoke rises again on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan
Why India “choose the time”? because Pakistan has recently been a crackdown, on its more than 2,600 km western border line, it is fighting with neighboring Afghanistan.
Since October, the troops of Pakistan and the Afghan interim government have exchanged fire frequently. The Pakistani side is so angry that it accuses the Afghan Taliban of harboring the leaders of the "Pakistani Taliban" (referred to as "Bata" for short), which specializes in sabotage in Pakistan, so that they can easily cross the border to launch attacks.
In a fit of anger, Pakistan sent air force fighter jets across the border to bomb strongholds in Bata. This stirred a hornet's nest. The Afghan side strongly protested, saying that Pakistan had violated its sovereignty.
It was not easy for the two sides to reach a ceasefire agreement on October 15, but the agreement was as fragile as the paper, and it was completely broken by October 26, and the two sides fought again, killing dozens of people.
The contradiction between the two families is deeply rooted. On the one hand, some people within the Afghan Taliban have always refused to recognize the legitimacy of the current border line (Duran Line). On the other hand, Pakistan firmly believes that India is behind the scenes and secretly provides funds and tactical guidance to the Afghan Taliban and Bata, hoping to use this to consume and contain Pakistan.
So, when the Indian army is under pressure in the east, Pakistan will inevitably think: Is this something that India and Afghanistan have discussed?
Internal and external troubles: Pakistan faces the dilemma of "fighting on two fronts"
The strong enemies around the outside, the head of the family is not dissuaded, which puts Pakistan in the huge risk of "two-line operation" or even "three-line operation".
The most headache for Pakistan is how to cope with the military pressure on both sides of the East at the same time, its national military strength is limited after all, and at the same time with two neighbors, it is definitely impossible to eat, so Pakistan is now taking the strategy of "stabilizing one side, dominating one side".
Diplomatically, it is urgently negotiating with Afghanistan and trying every means to reach a ceasefire first. Even if it is only temporary, it must first stabilize the western front. Internationally, Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif keeps calling on the leaders of major powers, calling on the international community to uphold justice and prevent the situation from getting out of control.
In military terms, the Pakistani side hastened to redistribute its troops, concentrating its key defense forces on the east front in response to India, while imposing controls on some of its critical airspace.
What attracts even more attention is that the top leaders of the Pakistani military also sent out some very tough signals, and even mentioned "nuclear deterrence". The meaning is very clear: Don't push me to a dead end. Rabbits bite people when they are in a hurry. We have the last resort to self-defense at all costs.
What is really scary is that in this corner of the eye, something happened in the southwestern Pakistan's Balochish province, where there has been long-standing separatist armed activity.
On 26 and 27 October, the Belarusian Liberation Front launched a series of attacks, bombing military vehicles with roadside bombs, and attacking government vehicles, causing casualties to Pakistani security forces.
Although these internal attacks were not large in scale, they were vicious at timing. They were obviously trying to "stab the knife" while the country's attention was on the border. This greatly dispersed Pakistan's security forces and left it trapped internally and externally.
Expert analysis: How high is the risk of a full-scale war?
The situation is so tense, will it really be fought? how likely is a total war? let’s see what experts say.
Internationally, some experts, such as the American Arms Control Association, think that the main purpose of this massive operation in India may still be "strategic deterrence", rather than really want to launch a massive offensive immediately.
Their reason was that India did not carry out a nationwide war mobilization and there was no large-scale requisition of civilian supplies. These were necessary prerequisites for launching a war.
India's series of actions, such as parking warships in disputed waters and conducting practical exercises in sensitive areas, are more like a "show of muscles with force" and are intended to create huge psychological pressure on Pakistan and force it to make concessions during negotiations.
But experts have also issued a serious warning that the situation is now too complex and too fragile, and Pakistan is on both sides of the pressures and internal turmoil, like a tight string.
The commander of either side may overreact due to intelligence errors or errors in judgment. A small border fire or an unauthorized cross-border pursuit may become the fuse of the great war.
At that time, it was not the exercise, but the real gun killing.
conclusion
In summary, now South Asia is really a mountain rain, the Indian army is under pressure, Pakistan is in the belly of the enemy, and the interior is still flooding.
Although reason tells us that a big blow is not good for anyone, but the complexity of the situation can not tolerate half a little, next, it depends on the diplomatic wisdom and political restraint of all parties.
The international community's attention and mediation is also very important, and we, as side observers, hope that all parties can stay calm, and don't let this "pistol barrel" really explode, after all, peaceful development is the greatest happiness of the people.