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Recently, after China strengthened the control of rare earth exports, the world's related industries have suffered a little shock, and the US and European countries are eager to find rare earth supplies outside of China, and Russia has also quickly made a big move.
Shoigu, secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, as Putin's core confidant, recently published a signed article in Izvestia, directly throwing out a blockbuster plan.
“Russia has thrown 700 billion in rare-earth chess.”
China's Ministry of Commerce issued several announcements on October 9th, which completely stirred up the global rare earth market. As soon as the newly upgraded export control measures landed, the industrial chains of the United States and Europe panicked first. The smuggling methods of criminals are constantly being renovated. Some people pour rare metals into the chest cavity of plastic models to disguise the exit, while others mix them into ceramic tile glue and transport them in batches. These chaos have surfaced with the upgrade of control.
American companies once reported their own illegal smuggling ships with their real names, and the value of the 300 tons of camouflaged rare earths finally intercepted exceeded 80 million US dollars. In this tense atmosphere, shoigu, secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, suddenly threw out heavy news.
Putin's core confidant made it clear in a signed article in Izvestia that Russia will spend 700 billion rubles (about 61.2 to 63 billion yuan) to build a rare earth industry cluster in the Angara-Yenisei region of Siberia。
More importantly, Shoigu’s statement that the industry must be completely independent of China and the United States, instantly shattered Russia’s strategic mindset, while the world is looking at China’s rare-earth supply chain, Russia should take the opportunity to take the initiative of “industrial vitamins” in its own hands.
After all, this thing is too crucial, small to smartphone chips, large to missile guidance system, without it modern industry will be "lack of calcium".
“Igo broke the window paper.”
Shoigu's article hides the collective anxiety of Russia's highest levels. He specifically defined the industry with "relationship to the existence of the Russian Federation as a sovereign state", referring to the level of rare-earth security to survival and death. This expression is not exaggerated, after all, after China's control measures came into effect, the US-European panic looks in front of the eye, and Russia doesn't want to be caught up by others in the future.
The former defense minister specifically emphasized the construction of "sovereign industry", which means very clearly: from rare earth mining to deep processing, each link must be firmly held in his own hands.
Putin had previously shouted to the United States, saying directly that Russia has more rare earth reserves than Ukraine, and now it seems that it is not to say, but to have a mattress.
Russia's confidence is indeed hidden underground. The proven reserves of 28 million tons of rare earth can rank among the top five in the world, and 15 of the 17 rare earth elements can be found in Russia. However, Shoigu's article did not evade reality. He mentioned the need to promote the integration of scientific research, education, industry, and investment. To put it bluntly, there is a shortage of everything now and the system has to be built from scratch.
This big bet is not only for security, but also for the economic outbreak, and to find a way to live outside of energy exports.
“Thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands of thousands.”
The ideal is abundant, but the reality has poured cold water into Russia.Rare-earth industry has never been "grow out and use", Russia's current situation can be "mining without chains". the annual production of 2600 tons does not even account for 1% of the world, compared with China's annual output is simply zero, let alone refining processing technology.
700 billion rubles may seem scary, but if it covers the entire chain of exploration, smelting, and equipment manufacturing, this amount of money is simply not enough. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has dragged down Russia's finances severely. Military spending remains high, and the funds that can be allocated to industrial construction are already limited. Shoigu did not say where the money came from. Companies were subject to Western sanctions and had no money to invest, and no one dared to come if they wanted to find foreign investment. Even if India intended, it lacked strength, and the funding gap became the first hurdle.
Technical barriers are more difficult to break through. Rare earth refining is a notoriously high-tech and highly polluting activity. It took China more than 30 years to understand the process, but Russia is almost blank. After the collapse of the scientific research system in the Soviet era, relevant institutions have long stagnated, and now even mining equipment has to be re-developed. What's even worse is that China has issued a ban on the export of rare earth technology, and there is no way to learn from it. Shoigu emphasizes "technological independence" again, and in the short term, he can only paint cakes to satisfy his hunger.
The shortage of infrastructure is also apparent.The Angala-Yenisse region in Siberia has a lot of resources, but the railway, electricity and other supports can not be followed at all. To build an industrial cluster, you must first break the money to build the infrastructure, which is a non-landing expense. Experts have calculated that even if everything goes well, it takes at least a decade to build a complete industrial chain, when the global market changes early.
“Can’t go to the east?”
Shoy said "independent from China and the United States", but the body is very honest. Russian industry people have long said that the construction of industrial chain can not be separated from Chinese technology, but now the technology doors have been closed. China's advantages are not only in refinement, from mining exploration to the entire chain of production of rare-earth magnets, the world to date no one can replicate.
Not to mention that China still has a huge application market. Demand sides such as new energy vehicles and wind power equipment are the lifeblood of the rare earth industry. Interestingly, Russia has no intention of giving up the China market. Shoigu mentioned providing a new cooperation model for the "Global South", and the subtext was that he wanted to grab customers from China.
But there is no processing capability, even if the mines of rare earth are excavated, they must eventually be sold to countries with technology, and the players who can't get away from the top of the industrial chain can't get away.
The smell of geopolitical games is also hidden in it. The United States previously signed a mineral agreement with Ukraine to replace China, but now Russia has jumped out to grab business, which is equivalent to giving the United States and Europe an additional option. Shoigu's article didn't mention how to deal with the West, but anyone with a discerning eye knows that he wants to use rare earths as a bargaining chip and have more initiative in the sanctions game. But whether Western companies dare to cooperate with Russia is still a big question mark.
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
The most embarrassing thing is the word "independence". Russia wants to get rid of dependence, but is biased in the most critical technological links can not get around China. In November, Putin's government work conference will also consider the industry details, when the problems of funding, technology will only be more prominent. Shoigu said in his heart, but this 700 billion knock down can not flourish the results, and finally have to see the face of the East.