On the international diplomatic stage, any change in details can trigger far-reaching political volatility, especially when the relationship between the two countries is already in a delicate and complicated state. A recent example is the "hello event" after Japan's new prime minister, Cao Mai, took office. She should have welcomed China's congratulations, but was late to see the Chinese response, forcing Japanese media to actively "interrogate" the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
At the press conference, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded in a one-time way: "China has made appropriate arrangements in accordance with diplomatic practice." This sentence may seem bland, but it accurately demonstrates China's position: we are not "forgetting", but "watching". In the complex Sino-Japanese relations, there are profound political intentions and sophisticated strategic considerations behind this diplomatic method.
The core issues in China-Japan relations are long-outstanding historical issues, the Taiwan issue and strategic competition between the two sides. In particular, Takashi Saami was once regarded as a hawk in the Liberal Democratic Party. She visited the Yasukuni Shrine, publicly supported constitutional amendments, and even made radical remarks on the Taiwan issue, all of which made China particularly alert to her appointment. For China, a congratulatory message is not just a diplomatic courtesy, it is more like a "thermometer" for relations between the two countries. In the current international situation, every formal statement may trigger a chain reaction. The timing, method, and even whether to send a congratulatory message are all well-considered strategic decisions.
Guo's response did not directly deny the message, but instead used "diplomatic practice" as a pretext, showing that China was not manifestly hostile to the assumption of a high-market prime minister, but was waiting for her guidance for practical action.In other words, China was not in a hurry to release goodwill, but was more concerned about whether the high-market government would be able to show respect for Sino-Japanese relations and whether it would make a responsible statement on issues such as history and Taiwan.
In Japan, she faces serious economic challenges – inflation, population aging and fiscal deficits – and rising public dissatisfaction and street protests. The U.S. relationship she relies on is a double sword: on the one hand, the U.S. security dependence on Japan remains irreplaceable, and on the other hand, this dependence also makes Japan’s foreign policy between China and the U.S. more and more difficult to balance.
She tried to respond to the rise of China by promoting the "free and open Indo-Pacific" strategy, but this diplomatic strategy of "resonating with the United States" actually limited her policy space. Economically, Japan relies deeply on the China market. The return on investment of many Japanese companies in China is much higher than in other regions, especially in industries such as automobiles and electronics. If Takashi Takashi adopts a policy of confrontation with China at this time, it will not only be political suicide, but will also cause irreversible damage to the Japanese economy.
Despite not having spoken too fiercely and not even attending Yasukiji as expected, she still showed signs of “softening” in diplomatic interactions with China. The new Foreign Minister, Momo, made a clear proposal to promote the development of China-Japan relations on the basis of “strategic mutuality”, indicating Japan’s willingness to ease tensions with China to a certain extent. This strategy is not based on friendship with China, but on the real choice of domestic economic and political pressure.
This diplomatic shift, which appears to be a “transformation” on the surface, is actually a compromise when faced with double pressures at home and abroad. She must maintain economic ties with China, otherwise Japan’s manufacturing and enterprises will face significant economic losses.
China's response actually reveals the bottom line of its trust in Japan. Guo Jiakun's brief response did not show any form of "softening" or compromise, but clearly conveyed a message: we should not only observe the Japanese government's words on Taiwan Province and historical issues, but also look at its specific actions. China's diplomatic attitude towards Japan is by no means based on form, but on the test of behavior.
This move is actually telling Goldman Sachs and its governments that the message is not a political “card-playing” but a response to the actual policy direction of your government. If you want to get Chinese blessings, you first need to show genuine sincerity and responsibility, especially on core issues such as history and Taiwan. If you continue to take a provocative attitude on these issues, the message will never come.
China is not merely ignoring China-Japan relations because of the high market’s early taking office, nor is it simply waiting for a diplomatic ceremony. The delay in the message is not ignored, but strategic observation and waiting. This is not only a consideration of the actual policies of the Japanese government, but also a caution about whether Japan can fulfill its commitments on issues such as history and Taiwan.
The future relations between China and Japan will not be warmed by a letter of warmth or completely frozen by the absence of a letter of warmth.The cleverness of China is that it puts sovereignty and core interests first through this diplomatic approach, but also gives Japan a clear signal: If you want to establish a stable diplomatic relationship with China, you must first prove your sincerity in action.