«--[· Preface ·]--»
Trump has a long sleeve and is working with some countries to get rid of their dependence on China's rare earths. What is the purpose of Gao Shizao joining in at this time? Can Trump's cooperation with these countries achieve its goals?
«--[·Trump launches the Anti-China Rare Earth Alliance·]--»
The end of the new round of China-US trade talks has not warmed the rare-earth game. While the United States claims to have reached partial consensus, the dark war around key minerals has long extended to all corners of the Asia-Pacific. The Trump administration knows more than anyone that China’s rare-earth speech is the biggest obstacle to its extreme pressure.
Rare-earth is the key fields of U.S. science and technology, national defense and other "industrial vitamins", lacking it F-35 fighter magnets, AI chips can not be mass-produced. on October 24, local time, Trump boarded the "Air Force One" to open Asia's three countries, the core task is to build allies "de-Chinaization" rare-earth supply chain.
The first result of this rapid march fell to Australia. On October 20, Trump finalized a US$8.5 billion cooperation agreement with Australia Prime Minister Albanese at the White House, equivalent to more than RMB 60 billion.
As soon as the agreement was signed, Trump rushed to Asia without stopping, and met with the new Japanese Prime Minister Saami Takashi in Tokyo on October 27. The core agenda of the meeting contained key actions. The United States and Japan signed a memorandum of strategic cooperation agreement on rare earths on the spot. Once this document, which is regarded by the outside world as a "secret treaty to participate in the war," it means that Takashi Saami officially joined the U.S. -led rare earth containment camp.
For Trump, this is another major breakthrough after Australia, where the anti-China rare-earth network he tries to woven is gradually shaping.
«--[· Takaichi Sanae's "First Fire" ·]--»
The entry of Gaoshi Zaomiao into the bureau was by no means a temporary intention. This "new official appointment and fire" was premeditated. Her previous policy speech had drawn a red line and made it clear that foreign policy would have the US-Japan alliance as the absolute core, which was equivalent to sending a signal of cooperation to the United States in advance.
Takaichi Sanae has his own abacus when taking sides with the United States on the rare earth issue. As the new prime minister, she urgently needs American political approval to stabilize her domestic position. Actively cooperating with Trump's "de-Chinaization" strategy is undoubtedly the fastest way to gain the trust of the White House.
When she clarified the details of rare-earth cooperation in the talks, it was equivalent to exchanging the Trump administration’s hidden support for practical actions. Japan’s own rare-earth difficulties also forced high-market early-seeds to make choices.
As the Chinese-American game escalated, the government worried that the supply chain was blocked and instead sought to be bound to the United States.This choice appears to avoid risks, and actually plunged Japan into a geopolitical twist.
Although the specifics of the US-Japanese agreement are not fully disclosed, industry speculation will involve many aspects such as rare earth mining, transportation and reserves. There are reports that Japan may open its domestic ports as a rare earth transfer hub, while increasing investment in Southeast Asia rare earth mines.
«--[· 8.5 billion wasted? ·]-»
High-market early "in the war" gave Trump a taste of sweetheads, but the real fault of being tied to the battle car has already appeared, that is to pay out 8.5 billion Australians. Albania's government signed the agreement was very well calculated, want to use rare-earth cooperation in exchange for U.S. support on nuclear submarine project.
Trump gave a verbal promise on the spot, but the promise was not even in black and white. Politicians in Australia cursed and bluntly said that they were betting the country's luck on their future. However, the agreement had already been written and it was too late to go back on it. What is even more ironic is that Australia simply does not have the strength to support the agreement.
The country’s rare-earth reserves are not low, but its mining and processing facilities are extremely lagging behind. Over the past few years, more than 90% of Australian rare-earth minerals have been exported to China for purification.International industry experts have already poured cold water, and Australia’s production infrastructure has not followed, and the processing costs are much higher than in China.
Trump insisted that "there will be too many rare earths in the United States to be used up in a year", but reality gave him a slap in the face. The core of the rare earth game has never been mining, but purification technology. China occupies 92% of the global rare earth processing field, and this monopoly position relies on the technological advantages accumulated in the past 50 years.
Australia can't even make 99.99% pure rare earth, let alone mention the "six nine" high-purity materials needed by the military industry.In order to give the U.S. watch loyalty, Australia also deliberately manufactures friction against China.On October 20, the Australian Ministry of Defense speculated that Chinese warplanes threw light bombs in the South China Sea, accusing the Chinese side of "unprofessional".
Anyone with a discerning eye can see that this is to create momentum for Albanese's visit to the United States, and he wants to offer a certificate of vote to China by touching porcelain. But this kind of small move is of no help to rare earth cooperation except to intensify conflicts.
Trump pulled his allies and shouted half a day "to China", but deliberately avoided a key issue: rare earth was not digged out and used, and the core barrier was purifying technology.
In 50 years, Chinese enterprises have accumulated massive amounts of process data, which hidden in the minds of engineers "hidden knowledge" can not be replicated at all. The largest rare-earth enterprise in the United States MP Materials, is now in purity at 99.9%, hard-earth separation capacity is almost zero, not even the level of China 50 years ago.
Australian Lines, which has been operating in Malaysia for 15 years, has a rare earth purity of only 99.95%, which is far from the industrial standards.The new rare earth rules introduced by China on October 9 have further shaken the back of the United States.
The new regulation does not include rare-earth exports, even floating pharmaceuticals, extraction tanks and key equipment, as well as purification technology are included in the control.
Data from the U.S. Geological Survey show that 70% of the U.S.'s rare earth compound imports in 2023 will come from China, and this dependence will not be changed in the short term. Trump himself showed a contradictory side. While pulling allies to create containment, he told reporters when he boarded Air Force One that he "hopes China will help us resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict."
On October 17, he even admitted that high tariffs on China were "unsustainable." These words exposed the United States 'lack of confidence-the rare earth brand is in the hands of China and they cannot afford it. The participation of Gaoshi and Miao early in the war and the spending of money by Australia are essentially futile. Without breaking through China's technological moat, no matter how huge the alliance is, it is just an empty shelf.
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Trump wants to rely on allies to get rid of dependence, I am afraid to have to wait for 10 to 20 years.This rare-earth war, to play to the end still has to depend on who's hard process, who's industrial chain all.