Nearly half a year after the end of the "5.7" air battle, India and Pakistan showed signs of war again. According to Indian media reports on the 27th, India plans to hold a joint exercise of the three services on the western border from October 30th to November 10th. The focus area of this exercise is the Sir Creek-Sindh-Karachi zone. From the map, this area is located on the southern coast of Pakistan, with Sindh province in Pakistan on the west and Gujarat in India on the east. The mouth of the Sir Creek River in the middle belongs to the disputed area. Pakistan advocates demarcating the boundary on the east bank of the river and assigning the entire estuary to Pakistan; India advocates dividing the boundary by the midline of the main channel, with one person and half of the estuary water. These two schemes seem to be not much different, but they are related to the division of maritime exclusive economic zones and the ownership of submarine oil and gas resources. In addition, India and Pakistan have old grievances, and the boundary between the two sides in this area has not been determined.
The purpose of India’s military exercises in the Silk Creek-Sind-Kalahi area was very clear: to take advantage of India’s naval advantage to recapture the Silk Creek River in future conflict, and to retaliate for the defeat of the air war in May this year. During the 20th October Indian Lighting Festival, India’s Prime Minister Modi visited India’s first domestic aircraft carrier “Vikrant” and told officers that “only the name of the aircraft carrier is enough to make Pakistan ‘unstable’ at night.” Modi’s phrase is not an accident, but the name “Vikrant” is derived from India’s first aircraft carrier – the former British “Vikant God”. The aircraft carrier had blocked Pakistan’s offshore traffic in the Third Indian War, so
Modi's warning was a dwarf pressure on Pakistan, and after the end of the Indo-Pacific air war in May this year, Modi made a loud speech, saying that India just suspended its military operations against Pakistan, and that if India suffered a terrorist attack again in the future, India would still retaliate in its own way. For the interests of the Indo-Pacific river that Pakistan attaches great importance, Modi said: "Terrorism and trade cannot coexist, water and blood cannot coexist."
Faced with India's naked military threat, Pakistan has taken urgent action. Many headquarters and military bases across the country have entered a state of high alert, and the air force and navy are also waiting for orders at any time. Pakistani military sources said that the area where India held military exercises this time is one of the weakest areas in Pakistan. In order to avoid accidental attacks, almost all airspace in Pakistan was closed, causing serious interference to air traffic. Although the cost is high, Pakistan has no choice, because the military contact line between the two sides is only a fine line away from Karachi, Pakistan's economic center. Nearly 70% of Pakistan's trade needs to be carried out through Karachi Port and nearby Qasim Port. Once the Indian navy and air force impose a blockade, Pakistan, which is poor in products, will immediately fall into a dangerous situation of oil shortage, food shortage and electricity shortage.
In addition to territorial threats, Pakistan also faces political threats. After the victory of the India-Pakistan air war, Trump's emphasis on Pakistan has been greatly increased, and he intends to let Pakistan replace India as an oil transshipment hub in South Asia. This makes India, which relies on Russian and Middle East oil, very dissatisfied, and also lays the groundwork for the recent military confrontation. If Pakistan loses this war, then all previous promises made by the United States to Pakistan will be invalid, India will once again become the strategic node of the United States in South Asia, and the national destiny of India and Pakistan will be reversed accordingly. For Pakistan, although the cost of the war is heavy, they have no way out. If a conflict breaks out, this battle must not only be fought, but also won.