The Preface:

Something has happened again in the southern Philippines. Gunfire rang out loudly in the Tipotipo area, thousands of families ran for their lives, and the local government publicly asked for help online. But the military downplayed it, saying it was just a "family conflict". But everyone knew in their hearts that this was not a simple family feud, but another boulder weighing on Marcos' head. Losing points in diplomacy and losing control in internal affairs, this turmoil in the south may really give Marcos a headache for a long time.

Gunshots came from the south, and the local government "shouted for help"

In the southern part of the Philippines, there suddenly came a lot of gunfire, residents fled in panic, schools and factories were shut down. The most shocking thing was not the conflict itself, but the local government rushed to social platforms to ask for help ¨C this is absolutely not unusual in a sovereign country. It is logical that the government system has an emergency mechanism, a top-level reporting channel, and there is no time to ¡°cry for help¡± online. This shows that the local security situation has long been out of control.

A ¡°family conflict¡± can paralyze the whole region? can thousands of residents escape their lives overnight? This is obviously a proverb. The Filipino people themselves know that it is not the first time in the South that this is happening, and there are so many old problems in this place.

Tipotipo is close to Indonesia and Malaysia, and its geographical location is extremely sensitive. It is a strategic hub in the southern Philippines. The terrain here is complex, poverty is serious, and armed forces are numerous. In the past few decades, the government has tried several times to "purge" it, but all failed. Local family factions, religious armed forces and local forces are intertwined, and the central government can't get involved at all. Therefore, this so-called "family conflict" is actually more like a turf struggle between local factions. The military's deliberate downplay is just to prevent the outside world from interpreting things in the direction of "civil strife". But the more you cover it up, the more serious the problem becomes.

The storm outside is still unsettled, and the doorstep is in chaos again

For Marcos, the outbreak of the shooting war was simply an escalation.In recent years, his trouble has been one by one: in diplomatic terms, he frequently hype about the South China Sea and wants to gain support from ASEAN and the United States by "confronting China", but the outcome is unwilling.

At the ASEAN conference, he spoke a lot about ¡°Safety in the South China Sea¡±, and his neighbors were unwilling to play; he also made a joke of ¡°claiming China for $396 billion¡± and was ultimately mocked by the international media. Foreign policy not only did not replace the applause, but was seen as an urgent benefit. Instead, the situation was worse. The power of the former President Duterte family still existed, and Vice President Sarah Duterte had long not paid for his policy, and repeatedly publicly rejected his impeachment of political enemies.

In the context of this internal diplomatic clash, the south is turbulent again, and throwing a stone to the already shaken tower. The south of the Philippines has always been a political "mine zone". The roots of the Duterte family are in that belt. If the situation continues to worsen in the south, it is likely to be exploited by the opposition. For them, this is precisely the opportunity to weaken Marcos' authority.

Behind the "family conflict" is a long-neglected national wound

The southern problem of the Philippines is not caused by one or two conflicts. That is a deep contradiction that has accumulated for a long time. Economically speaking, there is a huge development gap between the North and the South. The metropolitan area is prosperous and resources are concentrated, while the south is poor, with few employment opportunities and backward education. The result of long-term neglect is that local governments are self-contained, and the orders of the central government can't be given at all.

From the perspective of social structure, families and religious groups are the core organizational forms in the local area, and "elders" and "leaders" in many areas are more authoritative than mayors and military officers. With every change of president in the central government, this structure has hardly changed.

From a political point of view, the relationship between the central and the local is like two tables that cannot be folded.The local needs autonomy and the central wants control.The result is that both sides are dissatisfied ¨C the central is not suppressed, and the local is not supported.

For a long time, once the Southern turmoil appeared, the government's response was basically "sending troops to suppress." But the problem is not solved by guns. Poverty, resource struggle, religious contradictions, lack of governance, these are the roots.Tipotipo's outbreak, this time, is only the result of long suppression. The military voice says "the situation is controlled", but it is only the silence of the surface.

At the national level, this governance imbalance is extremely dangerous. Manila is in the north, and power is in the north; but the real powder keg is in the south. If a country is divided between the north and the south, it will fall into a vicious cycle of "top-heavy" for a long time. And this conflict is exposing this rift-the place is crying for help, and the center is pretending to be calm.

The fire has burned to the feet

The conflict in the south is not just a local problem, it is a warning to the whole national governance system. In recent years, Philippine society has become more and more torn. The gap between the rich and the poor has widened, political factional struggles have intensified, and people's distrust of the government has increased day by day. The gunfire in the south is the outbreak of social dissatisfaction. Once it is out of control, there may be a chain reaction elsewhere.

Even more terrifying, the opposition will use the opportunity to push back. The Duterte camp has always been known for being "hard" and "repressive", and they are likely to use this crisis to attack Marcos' "weakness".If the military is divided, the political balance is completely broken.

In Philippine politics, the authority of the leader is often not based on words, but on ¡°stability¡±. Whoever is stable, whoever has the power; whoever is troubled, whoever is pushed down. Today, the mess in the south has left the whole country stable.