Takaichi sanae, who just became the Japanese female prime minister, gave Trump a super gift. Among the 550 billion public investment in the United States, the US-Japan rare earth agreement has torn open the iron curtain created by the US-Japan-Australia rare earth alliance.

It turns out that Japan's rare earth replacement layout and exploration of rare earth mines 5,800 meters under the seabed of Minami Island more than ten years ahead of schedule have long been premeditated and laid out?

On October 28, Beijing time, the White House suddenly released an extremely important rare earth framework document, which had been signed on the same day by Trump and Goldman Sachs.

This also means that the prototype of the US-Japan-Australia Rare Earth Alliance has been formed. The division of labor and advantages of the three countries are relatively clear. Australia produces rare earth ores, and Japan produces separation and processing technology.

The United States, on the other hand, plays a leading role in integrating and ultimately digesting markets.

From the contents of these agreements in the Mining and Processing Rare-Earth Supply Framework of the United States and Japan, Japan has decided to break the Chinese Rare-Earth Supply Chain monopoly in its $55 billion investment in U.S. transportation.

Almost at the same time, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also strongly pointed out to the United States, saying that our conduct of rare earth control is to hinder free trade with the US customs war, to say the truth, Japan wants China as it can only be beaten.

Among the three countries in the United States and Australia, Japan is probably the first to have the ambition to replace China's rare-earth supply chain.

As early as 2010, almost 90% of Japan's rare earths were supplied by China. After China cut off the supply of rare earths to Japan, Japan was also scared at that time.

Japan has begun to take four measures to prevent the recurrence of the blackout.

First of all, Japan began to give up its exclusive purchase of rare earths from China and engage in multi-channel rare earth imports.

For example, since 2011, Japan's Sojitz Co., Ltd. has provided loans and equity funds of US $250 million to Australia's Lynas Rare Earth Company in one go, and jointly established Japan-Australia Rare Earth Co., Ltd. to make a long-term investment.

In return, Olinus will provide Japan with 8000 tons to 9000 tons of rare earth products every year within 10 years, which accounts for 30% of Japan's imports.

At that time, the production capacity of the first phase of Lynas' factory in Malaysia was 11,000 tons per year.

In other words, almost all of the production capacity of Linus's first-phase factory is supplied to Japan.

In 2023, Japan's Shuangri has invested an additional A$200 million in the Japan-Australia Rare Earth Corporation. The goal proposed by Shuangri this time is bolder and more appetizing, requiring Lenasi to increase the production of light rare earths and "separate heavy rare earths."

At the same time, Japan's Sojitz also made a relatively heavy agreement with Lynas. The Japanese company directly bought 65% of Lynas' production share of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium in Australia's Weld mine.

These rare-earth heavy metals will be sent to Japan directly after separation and refinement.

So when I see this, there is a question, do Australian companies have the ability to refine heavy rare earth metals?

The introduction on Linus's official website is very high-profile. They directly claim to be the second manufacturer in the world with rare earth separation technology. The standard rare earth metal products on their page include neodymium, lanthanum, praseodymium, etc.

Currently, the main rare-earth plants of Australian Lines are mainly built in Malaysia, close to Australia.

On the company's official website in mid-May this year, Linus announced that he had mastered the extraction technology of "dysprosium oxide" heavy rare earth.

At the time, this happened again, but in fact, there was no wave in the global supply chain of rare earth.

Because anyone who threatens to break through the monopoly of China's rare earth technology now, as long as he keeps his mouth shut about "purity" and "output", is basically talking.

At present, Australian and even global rare earth suppliers, facing the biggest problem, is in the medium and low-end rare earth cannot "low cost" mass production, in the high-end rare earth "no technology" mass production.

The separation amount of heavy rare earths of Lynas Company is basically not enough to fill the gap between the teeth. If it can be mass-produced at low cost, it can be called a cow.

In the more than a decade of Japan's cooperation with Lenas Rare Earth, most of the imported technology is not high in lightweight rare earth.

It was not until 2023 that Japan began to want to introduce heavy rare earths from Lynas on a large scale, but it was only planned.

In addition to creating multiple import channels for rare earth, Japan has three other ways to break China¡¯s rare earth monopoly: recycling second-hand rare earth materials worldwide, reducing the use intensity of rare earth in various products, and finding alternatives to rare earth.

At the beginning of 2025, Japan's research and survey ship Herring explored the rare earth storage situation in seven locations in one go at 5,800 meters at the bottom of Minamitori Island.

However, judging from the results and estimates after the event, it is currently difficult for Japan to achieve mass production of rare earths in waters so far away from the mainland and so deep, and it is impossible in a short period of time.

To put it clearly, the cost of mining alone cannot be controlled.

Before the signing of the United States Rare Earth Framework and Trump's trip to Asia, the United States and Australia signed the "Rare Earth Supply Framework" on October 20.

This framework for rare-earth cooperation between the United States and Australia is actually a pad for Trump¡¯s trip to Asia to build a rare-earth supply chain.

It can also be seen that everything that the United States does in creating the United States and Japan and Australia rare-earth alliance is more of a role of integration and leadership, to say the truth is that everyone has money, technology and technology, and markets.

However, judging from the trend of rare earth cooperation between the United States, Japan and Australia, they are currently only in the integration stage of the primary supply chain of rare earths. It is almost impossible to replace China's supply chain in the short term, and it is full of uncertainty in the long run.

Although the United States' mountain mine and Australian high-quality rare-earth mines, the reserves are not low, but the United States and Japan have not yet a systemic heavy-earth refining company, the Leinas company is mostly exposed to rare-earth refining.

China's exclusive mastery of rare earth cascade extraction theory and large-scale production can refine rare earth metals to a purity of more than 99%, but the cost is only one-tenth of that of the United States, Australia and Europe.

This technology is not something that can be mastered with just a few drawings or equipment, but requires hundreds of extraction procedures and dynamic adjustment techniques for impurities.

But most importantly, Chinese rare-earth enterprises, in recent decades, have accumulated data base of experience using this technology, which is even more important.

Even before China did not engage in rare earth control, it is difficult to master the technology, even if you have mastered the technology, you do not have a decade of data accumulation.

Moreover, now China has given up control only from the mineral chain, but from the rare earth technology chain.

Therefore, Trump wants to build a US-Japan Australian rare earth alliance, even if there is a breakthrough in rare earth refining technology, but want to replace China's rare earth supply chain is not a one-night thing.

In the Sino-US trade war, China does not want to hold the rare earth brand once and for all. In fact, we know that this is a short-term card, but as long as the goal is achieved, the purpose of the rare earth brand will be achieved after the chip software industry steps up domestic substitution and upgrading.

On the other hand, Japan was engaged in light rare earths decades ago. After more than a decade, it has returned to the same starting line as the United States and Australia.

Now, with Takashi Saami sending Trump a 550 billion yuan investment list in the United States, Japan is at best a pawn for the United States in the US-Japan-Australia rare earth alliance.

Japan will eventually pay off its national transportation.