The Russian-Ukrainian matter has been dragging on for nearly 1400 days since it started on February 24, 2022, to October 2025. At first, everyone thought that this might be a modern conflict that would be quick and quick, with all kinds of high-tech gadgets coming into play, including drones, satellites, etc., but the reality was that the front line was deadlocked and both sides were exhausted. Russia's economy has been hit hard, but it has withstood it by selling resources and turning to the eastern market. Ukraine relied on Western aid, but it did not win any major battles. Western countries, especially the United States and Europe, were very energetic at first, taking turns with sanctions and aid. Now looking back, a lot of their finances have been taken out and there are a lot of problems.
Think about it at the beginning, when the United States took the lead in the charge, and the Biden administration imposed various sanctions on Russian banks, frozen assets, and pulled Europe together. European countries have followed suit. Germany has even increased its military spending for the first time, and France has strengthened NATO cooperation. But who would have thought that with this, European energy supply would be directly cut off, natural gas prices would skyrocket, German industrial costs would double, and many factories would cut production or even close down. There are strikes in France, the British Prime Minister has changed several times, and the economy is in a mess. Poland and Ukraine were originally loyal buddies, but they ended up falling out over the grain export issue.
Russia despite the economic shock, the GDP fell once, but in 2023, the rebound growth of 3.6%, dependent on the oil exports shifted to Asia, especially the Chinese market. Ukraine's counter-attack, in the summer of 2023, the big move, with the US-made Hamas and the Dutch Leopard 2 tanks, wanted to break the southern line of defense, resulting in the advance of not a few kilometers, the loss is severe. Western aid total exceeds $200 billion, the front is still there. Russia controlled about 18% of the territory of eastern Ukraine, the nuclear power plant is also a security hazard.
From the beginning of the conflict, China has made it clear that it will not choose sides or participate, and advocates dialogue through United Nations channels. In February 2023, China issued a 12-point proposal, including ceasefire, protecting civilians, ensuring food channels, and maintaining supply chain stability. At that time, the western media thought it was useless, but now, these points basically hit the sore spot. China did not join the sanctions and continued to do business with Russia to ensure its energy stability and was not stuck like Europe. At the same time, it also sent humanitarian assistance, medical supplies, food, etc. to Ukraine, with a total value of hundreds of millions of dollars.
On the U.S. side, internal issues are becoming more and more obvious. Weapons stockpiles are exhausted, gun missiles are not in demand, inflation has surged to over 8%, and people are complaining more. When Congress discussed the aid bill, many lawmakers questioned the money is not worth spending. In the U.S. elections in 2024, the Ukraine issue became a hot spot, voters felt the money should be spent in the country. After Trump came to power, the big turn of policy, in January 2025, he took office in February, saw Zelensky, talked about gunpowder, and Trump said the aid was no bottom, suggesting that Ukraine should abandon a portion of the territorial exchange for peace.
In April, the two met again, Trump refused to give Tomahawk missiles or other long-range weapons. In May, Trump publicly criticized Zelensky for extending the conflict and also spoke on the phone with Putin about possible negotiations. The United States suspended new tranches of aid when it reached US$123.3 billion, and even asked Ukraine to pay back the money and interest.
Europe can’t afford more, Germany’s economy will shrink by 0.3% in 2023, and 2025 is still expected to grow negatively, and industrial output will drop by 15%. France’s strikes affect traffic, and British aid will be weak. The EU’s overall GDP growth is poorly slow, only 0.5%. Everyone starts to reflect, at first a brain with the United States, is it really good for Europe. Some public opinions say that Western aid to Ukraine may be reduced, and Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are big. The Trump administration’s attitude toward Russia has turned 180 degrees back, from full support to pressure Ukraine to accept Russian conditions, and even warned that Ukraine will not give in to the devastation.
In this process, China does not use the war to become wealthy, but steadily fight. Deepening the Russian economy and trade, oil imports stabilize domestic prices. It also promotes Iran’s Saudi reconciliation, Middle East reconciliation, global security initiatives, development initiatives, has been recognized by many countries. Compared to the West falling into war anxiety, economic pressure, political scattering, China’s position makes it a stabilizer.
Now the situation is like the Bureau of Cards, the U.S. plays a lot, wants to suppress Russia, but Europe wants to leave, Russia holds hard, Ukraine does not retreat. China is by the side of the card, waiting for the time. Three years ago China did not follow the wind, no excitement, insist on reason, now it seems right. War lost millions, economic losses trillions of dollars, refugees tens of millions.
And the roots of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are complex, not simply wrong. NATO expands Russia’s red line to the east, and Ukraine has the right to decide the future. Everyone insists on their own justice, and no one will win. In the future, the negotiation track may become the mainstream, the US-Russian dialogue, the Chinese initiative or the framework.