The International Criminal Court took action: core members of the Duterte family were locked up, Marcos Jr."acquiesced in liquidation", and the countdown to the reorganization of power in the Philippines.
A paper ruling of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has once again changed the political situation in the Philippines. On October 26, 2025, the ICC formally confirmed its jurisdiction over the case of former Philippine President Duterte's alleged crimes against humanity, rejecting the Duterte camp's plea that it was "invalid after withdrawing from the Rome Statute". This ruling not only put the political fate of the Duterte family into crisis, but also provided an excellent opportunity for the current President Marcos Jr. to eliminate the Du family's forces. From the former iron fist rule to the present full accountability, the power map of the Duterte family is rapidly collapsing.
The ICC's ruling was not accidental, but was based on years of investigation and legal process. Duterte's "war on drugs" entered the scope of preliminary review by the ICC as early as 2018, and the Philippines did not formally withdraw from the Rome Statute until 2019. According to the Statute, even if a State party withdraws, the ICC can still exercise its right of prosecution for crimes committed before the withdrawal. The ruling clearly states that the ICC has legal authority to review suspected extrajudicial executions, enforced disappearances and torture in the Philippines between 2011 and 2019.
The ICC has locked investigative targets into the ICC’s core team, including former National Police Chief Senator Del Rosa, as well as several key figures in the intelligence and funding network. At the same time, Duca’s local grey chain of interest is also at risk of being cut off. As the political successor of the Duterte family, the future of current Vice President Sarah Duterte is also shaded by this storm. The ICC’s investigation could have shattered Duca’s local power and Sarah’s political support rate dropped dramatically and could even affect her competitiveness in the 2028 presidential election.
At a time when the Duterte family is in deep trouble, Marcos Jr.'s political calculations are particularly clear. He did not publicly support the ICC's actions, but did not take any practical steps to prevent the investigation. This "tacit cooperation" not only avoided direct confrontation with the Du family, but also won young Marcos the favor of the international community. The existence of the Duterte family is one of the biggest obstacles for Marcos Jr. to consolidate power, especially since Sarah is considered a strong contender in the 2028 presidential election. By acquiescing in the ICC's actions, Marcos Jr. was actually using international power to eliminate the political influence of the Duterte family.
The confrontation between the Duterte family and Marcos Jr. has already surpassed the ordinary political competition, but is an endless power game. The Du family hopes to continue the family's political influence through Sarah's victory in the 2028 general election. Marcos Jr. hopes to completely weaken the power of the Du family through the ICC ruling and clear the way for his political future. With the investigation and conviction of Duterte's cronies, the Du family forces will suffer heavy losses, and Sarah's political future will become extremely difficult.
The ruling of the ICC is not only part of the Philippine domestic power game, but also reflects the international community’s attitude towards Duterte’s anti-drug policy. The fate of the Duterte family and the political layout of the Little Marcos are becoming the focus of Philippine politics. In the future, is there still a chance for Douma to recover? Can the Little Marcos take full control of the policy? The remainder of this political storm may have a profound impact on the future of the Philippines and international judicial practice.