The Preface:
Vigilant! Our "oil bottle" and "meat case" are being pinched by a country thousands of miles away!
Brazil soybeans a paper price increase notification, directly related to the basket of each of our households, this is not a rumor, but a game that has already begun.
Why can a small bean make 1.4 billion people so passive? The truth behind it is far more complicated than imagined.
Soybeans, not just beans
In the eyes of many of us, soybeans are soybeans and tofu, but in fact, our country annually buys hundreds of millions of tons of soybeans from abroad, mainly not for people to eat directly.
So where did they go? Most of them go into the oil mill. One ton of soybeans can squeeze out 200 kilograms of soybean oil and 1,500 kilograms of soybean meal.
Bean oil is the vegetable oil that we cook every day, the home can not be separated, the restaurant use is larger, the remaining bean oil, that is a baby, it is the main refined feed for feeding pigs, feeding chickens, feeding ducks.
So you see, the price of soybeans, directly determines the price of soybeans oil is not expensive, also greatly affects the cost of pigs, in the end associated with the price of pork, that soybeans are related to our "oil bottle" and "meat case", not a little bit.
The trade war has changed the pattern.
Some people may want to ask, why should we rely on foreign beans because of our vast territory and abundant resources? This is a real problem. We have a large number of people and little land. We must ensure that we have enough staple foods (such as rice and wheat) to eat, and the land we can use to grow soybeans is limited.
Own soybeans are far from sufficient, so large amounts of imports are no way.
In the past, the import business was quite balanced. We mainly bought from two "big households": one was the United States and the other was Brazil.
The two sizes are almost the same, we are also in our hearts, if the United States wants to raise the price, we will buy a little more of Brazil; if Brazil is a jerk, we will go to the United States to talk, this is "the eggs are not put in a basket", buy and have a bottom.
But this good situation was broken by a Sino-US trade war in 2018. The United States first increased taxes on our goods. Of course, we had to fight back. One of the measures was to impose a 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans.
In this case, American soybeans suddenly cost no one, our importers have no way to, just have to give the order like a snowplate to Brazil, since then, the situation has changed completely.
Brazil became the new leader.
This sudden huge order has made Brazil very happy. The amount of beans we buy from Brazil has soared year after year. Up to now, eight out of ten pounds of imported soybeans we eat come from Brazil.
Now Brazil is so proud that they are at full speed, cutting down trees to open up wasteland and planting soybeans in a large area; At the same time, we are trying our best to build railways and expand ports in order to ship more beans out.
In a few years, Brazil surpassed the United States and became the world's number one soybean exporter, and the cost of growing beans was lower than that of the United States.
With hard currency in hand, the waist is hard. Brazil begins to feel that we can't live without him, not that he can't live without us as a buyer.
The pattern of price increases is a headache
How did Brazil raise the price? the man is still “smart” and not directly saying “I want to raise the price.”
The most commonly used trick is "raising the premium", which is to add an extra sum of money with "Brazilian characteristics" on the basis of the international standard price.
This money was very little before, and now more and more high, it is like buying a nice car, having to raise the price of a car, the sensation of selling luxury goods.
In addition, many ports and railways in Brazil are managed by private companies. These companies have seen our strong demand and quietly increased transportation and storage fees.
This much of the cost, in the end of course, all included in the price of soybeans, paid by our buyers.
Sometimes it is even more irritating. When you place an order, he is not in a hurry to deliver the goods. He deliberately delays you for a few days. The international market will have one price every day. After a few days, the price may rise again. If we are in a hurry to ask for the goods, we can only suffer a dumb loss.
After these tricks, every ton of Brazilian soybeans we buy will have to spend dozens or even hundreds of dollars more. We buy hundreds of millions of tons a year, and calculate the general ledger. This extra money is astronomical, and it will have to be spread on our oil and meat in the end.
Just pointing to Brazil alone is a lot of risk
So dependent on the Brazilian family, everyone can see, there is a huge risk.
First of all, fear of natural disasters, those states of Brazil seed beans, if there is a drought or flooding, the output of "carbon" will be reduced by half, we will not buy enough beans, feed will have to raise the price, the price of meat can not go up the sky?
Secondly, it is afraid of Brazil's own "internal friction". Although its railways and ports are stronger than in the past, they will still be blocked and damaged from time to time, delaying shipping schedules.
In addition to changing presidents and walking lights on their side, if the new policy changes, adding a tax to soybean exports, we have to be passive.
The most worrisome is the relationship between the great powers, Brazil and the United States are good, if one day the United States makes an effort to crack down on Brazil, let it sell less or do not sell beans to us, the situation will be really passive, it is not alarming.
How is our country responding?
In such a passive situation, our country, of course, will not sit and watch no matter, now is to try to "many legs walk."
The first is to try to grow many varieties of soybeans, the country in the northeast, Yunnan Sea and these places, to encourage the old countryside to grow many varieties of soybeans, and to promote new technologies to sow soybeans and corn, is to try to improve our own output.
But we also have to have a number of people in our hearts, so much, our own high cost, production temporarily can not work out Brazil America, want to rely entirely on ourselves, in the short term is unrealistic.
The second is that the world is full of new sellers, not just let Brazil take us, like South America, Argentina, Uruguay, and our neighbors Russia, and even some countries in Africa, have become the objects of our focus cooperation.
We help them to improve soybeans technology and improve conditions, in exchange for them to buy beans from them for a long time and disperse risks.
The third is to directly participate in the source, such as large national enterprises such as China Food, have directly invested in Brazil to build terminals, joint-stock farms and processing plants, so that in the transport link a little of their own voice, not to be completely stuck in the neck.
However, these measures are long-term solutions, and it will take time to take effect, which means that in the next few years, we estimate that we will still have to buy a lot of Brazilian beans, but these moves must be taken.
Conclusion:
So, old brothers, don't look at a soybean as inconspicuous. It is connected to international relations, national strategies, and the daily life of our common people. The price increase of soybeans in Brazil has reminded us that the rice bowl is the most stable thing in your own hands.
Our country is playing this big game of chess in order to keep our "oil bottles" and "meat cases" full and stable prices at all times. This takes time. We know it in our hearts, do not panic, and understand better how difficult the country is.