Preliminary

Trump just stepped onto the ground in Tokyo, and has not yet been able to pull the diplomatic "negotiation and bargaining" platform, Japan's prime minister, High City Morning, first appeared, and all Tokyo landmark buildings were illuminated for the welcome!

It is not a festival, not a celebration, but a special "campaign" for Trump's arrival. This eye-catching operation makes people wonder: Is it a welcome or a show of loyalty? Behind the seemingly closeness of the US-Japan alliance, there are actually hidden temptations and calculations.

Illuminating Tokyo is a welcome and a test water.

Trump's visit to the South China Sea, did not intend to do too high. After all, the front foot just left the Philippines, the back foot exploded the news of the U.S. Navy shipwreck crashed into the South China Sea, the entire ASEAN journey was pressed by this emergency accident. According to the rule, to Japan, he probably wanted to act lowly, slow down.

According to Japanese media reports quoted by "Reference News", sanae takaichi personally presided over a welcoming ceremony of "lighting up the Tokyo Tower" on the night of Trump's arrival. How do you look like you are making a statement to Trump: "Come, I support you."

More interestingly, the company not only lit the lights, but also publicly stated in a subsequent joint statement that it would "further consolidate Japan-U.S. diplomatic and security cooperation" and "solidly support the U.S. strategic deployment in the Indo-Pacific region".

This sounds familiar and eerie, and resembles the position of Japanese right-wing politicians in recent years. High City itself is a representative of the far-right, has long advocated the constitutional expansion of the army, has a tough attitude towards China, and is not friendly to Russia.

In this way, the welcoming ceremony is no longer just a ceremony, but a political projection.In the sensitive moment of China-Japan relations, this high-tone "stand-up" move will undoubtedly add a bit of fire to the East Asian situation.

From China's standpoint, this is not only diplomatically unfriendly, but also a disguised provocation. After all, no matter how bright the Tokyo Tower is, it can't hide the reality that Japan has always been "passively following" in the US-Japan alliance.

Gao's "light diplomacy", to put it bluntly, is a political show and a test of China's attitude. She hopes to use Trump's hand to strengthen her political chips, and at the same time "play the edge ball" in relations with China, but how far this road can go depends on how many games Trump is willing to accompany her.

Trump in the mouth, the heart is loud.

On the surface, the atmosphere of Trump's visit to Japan is harmonious, and it is nice to say that "Japan is one of the closest allies of the United States" and "US-Japan cooperation is the cornerstone of Indo-Pacific security".

According to a brief itinerary released by the White House, the core theme of Trump¡¯s trip is not ¡°friendliness¡±, but ¡°interests¡±. He focused on two things, one is tariffs, and the other is energy buying and selling.

The United States is facing ongoing inflation pressure, Trump urgently need to find an export for his policy, and Japan is right in a position of "not badly rejected."As the long-term security dependent object of the United States, Japan has long been "known criticised" by Trump in military spending, during the talks, he once again put forward "Japan should bear more security responsibilities", which sounds like cooperation, in fact, in the palace.

According to the Japan Economic News, Trump suggested that Japan purchase large amounts of US LNG (liquidated natural gas) and incorporate it into the "strategic energy cooperation framework".This is indeed a problem for Japan - on the one hand, the energy structure needs to be adjusted, on the other hand, the domestic economy is tight, in the face of the "extreme pressure" of the United States, the high market can only knock the head, but not necessarily comfortable.

In other words, Trump is not here to "rob" this time, but he will never return empty-handed. He is more like an experienced businessman, shaking hands and talking happily on the surface, but calculating every account behind his back.For China, behind this US-Japan deal lies a bigger question: Will Japan further lose its strategic autonomy in its dependence on the United States?

If Japan continues to tilt towards the United States on security and economic and trade issues, it will undoubtedly be a hidden danger to the stability of the Asia-Pacific region. Especially if the United States and Japan reach a certain tacit understanding on sensitive issues such as constitutional amendment and military cooperation, then China must be highly vigilant and be prepared to respond.

Of course, China does not lack means and confidence. Whether it is the global layout of the "Belt and Road" or the autonomy and controllability of science and technology and industrial chains, China has sufficient strategic depth to deal with any fluctuations in regional politics. If the United States wants to "song" in East Asia, then China has the ability to "song alone".

Who is behind the lights singing?

This ¡°greeting show¡± in the high market, at first glance, was the home operation, but actually exposed Japan to some sort of anxiety in diplomacy. Trump visited Japan, she was eager to perform, eager to be loyal, and even to ¡°express¡± with city landmarks, this gesture seemed strong and real.

After all, Japan is at a twist point of economic and security double pressure. Domestic inflation is unstable, trade deficits expand, and social disagreements on constitutional issues are also increasing. In this context, the closer the bond with the United States, the more it is like betting on the future. But this ¡°future¡± is the future of Trump, or the future of Japan?

According to Japan's NHK report, Japan's domestic high markets have not paid off a series of recent "excessive accommodation" policies to the United States, especially on the issue of constitutional amendments, and the popular support rate has declined year after year.

And Trump, on the other hand, is enthusiastic and does not equal to really consider Japan a friend.For him, as long as the deal can be reached, who lighted the lights, who bowed, who cried the slogans, it doesn't matter. He wants results, not ceremonies.

So look carefully at this scene of Japanese interaction, the true protagonist behind it is not the lights of the Tokyo Tower, nor the smile of the high market, but the book in Trump's hand.

From the perspective of China, we should see both the structure and the motivation of this play clearly. China is not opposed to normal cooperation between countries, but if there is geopolitical containment and military provocation behind this cooperation, the bottom line must be shown. China has always advocated a regional order of win-win cooperation, not the Cold War mentality of who is in charge and who is in charge.

No matter how bright the lights in Tokyo are, they can't hide the coldness of reality. Trump's visit, Japan's high-profile cooperation, between light and dark, is a true portrayal of the game between the United States and Japan. China will not be fooled by appearances, nor will it be led by provocation. In the face of complex situations, we always adhere to independent judgment and strategic confidence.

The question is: When the United States and Japan staged "light diplomacy" in Tokyo, who was the real light bearer? What do you think?

reference

China News Network Trump arrives in Japan, Sanae Takaichi: Light up all landmark buildings in Tokyo to welcome!