Recently, Europe and the United States collectively imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia: the United States sanctioned Russia's two largest oil companies, namely the state-owned Rosneft and the private Lukoil, whose crude oil exports account for 50% of Russia's total; The European Union banned Russian liquefied natural gas from the European market and lowered the price cap on Russian crude oil to $47.6 per barrel; Rosneft, Gazprom Neft will face full trading ban; The European Union will expand its transaction ban on financial institutions in Russia and other countries, and include cryptocurrency platforms in sanctions for the first time.
The reasons for sanctions given by Europe and the United States are very clear: if Russia does not end the war, then Russia's sources of war funding will be cut off. It can be said that this time the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia are unprecedented. Russia's foreign exchange earnings will plummet like a cliff, and special military operations may really be unsustainable.
How did Putin do two things:
The first was to warn the U.S. not to give Ukraine a “tacksack” missile, Putin said, “To give Ukraine a tacksack is to want to escalate the situation, but if this weapon is used to attack Russia, the retaliation will be very fierce and even devastating.
Second, a strategic nuclear force exercise was immediately organized. The Russian army launched a "Yars" intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk Cosmodrome to the "Kula" shooting range on the Kamchatka Peninsula; The strategic nuclear submarine "Bryansk" launched a "Deep Blue" ballistic missile in the waters of the Barents Sea; The Tu-95MS strategic bomber launched an air-based cruise missile.
Putin's response was tough, and Trump immediately publicly said that he would not provide tactical axis missiles to Ukraine, but Russia's strategic nuclear force exercises, feared, would have limited effects on the West.
We have said many times that nuclear weapons, although powerful, but it is in the hands of the weak side, is used to defend. This analysis, is based on the judgment of human nature. US Russia is a nuclear power, enough to guarantee mutual destruction, so the conflict between the US Russia, will only be limited to conventional war, because the purpose of the war is to struggle for the interests of the country, if not to struggle for additional interests, at least to preserve the basic disc, and if they throw each other, then the basic series is not preserved, the country has become nuclear waste land, which is neither in accordance with the interests of the US Russian state, nor in accordance with the personal interests of the US Russian leaders.
So the game of the great powers, will only stop at the conventional means, such as the economy or agent war, by "breaking the wrist", I know you have greater strength, will be implicitly lost. this is reflected in the crisis of the Cuban missile crisis very clearly: the Soviet Union was also a nuclear power, but found its navy far weaker than the United States, can not support Cuba, eventually still withdrew the missiles.
Thus, Russia’s nuclear bombs will only be used to defend itself, and as long as the West does not throw it, Russia will not throw it.
In the current battlefield in Ukraine, Russia is on the offensive, while in the economic field, Russia is on the defensive. In the final analysis, the war is fought on economy and technology, and on these two points, Russia is at a disadvantage: economically, Russia relies heavily on energy exports, and Western sanctions have a fatal impact on the Russian economy; in terms of science and technology, Russia relies heavily on Western weapons. Parts and machine tools.
Although Russia can export energy to third parties, each country's energy import channels are diversified, and it is impossible for third parties to completely replace the lost share in Europe and the United States; Although Russia can import parts and machine tools from third parties, in the third party's industrial system, the core parts also rely on Europe and the United States, and it is impossible for third parties to take their own risks to provide them to Russia.
Therefore, after Russia and the West "wrestle" in the economic field and understand each other's strength, they will rationally choose to accept a local truce. Accepting the local truce does not mean that Russia has been suppressed by the West since then, because Trump has always regarded China as the biggest challenge, so he wants to keep a neither strong nor weak Russia to "unite with Russia to control China". Therefore, after Russia accepts the local armistice, it will actually be in an international environment of "both sides". Although Russia lost face, it won the lining. I believe Putin is well aware of this. Putin's wielding of the nuclear stick this time is actually fighting back for dignity. When Russia's dignity is satisfied, Putin can make rational decisions.