In October 1924, in a dark Wall Street stock exchange in New York, several elderly people holding the “Qing government Phnom Penh bonds” shoot the billboard complaining: “When will this paper thing be paid?” no one can imagine, almost a hundred years later, the bill was brought out as a topic. In March 2023, the “Congress Hill” Daily used a comment of less than two thousand words, linked the dust-closed yesterday’s repayment with the hard life of the U.S. debt today, and released the speech: If Beijing did not clear the old accounts of the year, Washington would consider offsetting the $85 trillion debt in China’s hands.
The Chinese government agreed to pay four hundred and fifty million silver to the coalition of eight countries, four hundred and thirty years of interest, and to repay it. The United States was divided into more than thirty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-four hundred and twenty-four hundred and twenty-four hundred and twenty-four hundred and twenty-four hundred and twenty-four hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty-two hundred and twenty
The American Debt Holders’ Association has been petitioning for decades, claiming that “the treaties are only intergovernmental acts, private creditors are not affected.” but the question arises: if the creditors are truly independent, then after 1939, the principal funds, interest, why no one continues to register? What is the date of the interest stop calculation? These gaps, in the congressional hearing at the time, can not be said by themselves.
On the other hand, how much U.S. debt does China hold? Public data is available on the Ministry of Finance website. In 2007, China held more than 470 billion US dollars; The peak in 2013 was close to $1.3 trillion; The latest figure in 2022 is around $850 billion. The source is simple-the foreign exchange obtained from export surpluses is then put into the U.S. Treasury bond market so that assets can flow safely. In other words, it is real money and silver exchanged for boxes of goods in enterprises and factories, rather than bargaining chips at the political negotiating table.
Interestingly, the "Congress Hill" article is not a surprise. In February, the U.S. Treasury Department just announced the debt ceiling to close to $30 or $4 trillion, the two parties in Congress do not concede. The financial Eagles look for "external outbound", so turn the old bonds into articles, both to the domestic voters, and can increase the weight in the game against China. If you really go to compensate this step, what are the consequences? first look at the credit. The U.S. debt is currently the international reserve asset foundation, rating agencies even in the mouthining AAA, the market is also looking at the probability of breaches. If the government denies its own debt, investors will inevitably sell. The decade of yield jumping a two percent just
Some take the example of Ziyang during the spring and autumn period – once the hegemony has lost faith, the chiefs are separated from the kingdom. Ziyang did not delay the debt of the grass, and can still rely on the force to live in the country; Washington today, if the account, but faced with all the weather, the whole market capital feedback, pull a line to pull the network, and want to stop.
Anyway, how will China respond? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has long had a position-the unequal treaties signed by the Qing government with foreign countries have long since been invalidated with history; after 1943, the United States also used formal treaties to cancel creditor's rights. Law belongs to law, and politics belongs to politics. As for US$850 billion in U.S. debt, China regards it as a normal allocation of financial assets that can be purchased and sold, and will not be kidnapped by a verbal threat.
It is worth mentioning that ordinary U.S. taxpayers are not accountable for this wave. A Texas farm owner joked on the local radio: “If the government really dares to rely on eighty billion, first ask us how many 401Ks are still in our hands?” a few words, breaking the sky.
At this point, it is basically clear that the so-called "century-old debt" of the United States and the 850 billion US debt today are not figures on the same account book. One is punitive reparations in the imperialist era, which have long been declared dead by both governments; the other is standardized securities in modern financial markets, where any refusal to pay will first hurt the issuing country itself. History and reality are placed in front of us. It is not difficult to judge which is more important.