The big war between the United States and Venezuela was about to start, and at this point, U.S. officials suggested, “Maduro should flee to China.”
According to the latest news from the U.S. news agency on October 26, The U.S. missile destroyer Graffiti has already landed in the ports of Trinidad and Tobago, Spain.。It is reported that there are more than 300 U.S. soldiers on board the destroyer, but the number of weapons is unknown.
Almost at the same time, an IL-76TD transport plane suspected to belong to the Russian Wagner mercenary group took off from North Africa and finally landed at the Venezuelan capital airport.
The overlap of these two things makes the already tense U.S. Commission relationship instantly on the brink of explosion.
Since September this year, the Trump administration has claimed to sink seven “drug ships” in the international waters of Venezuela’s outer seas, but the U.S. Drug Enforcement’s recent report shows that Venezuela is not the main source of U.S. drugs.
This contradictory expression is difficult to cover up its true intentions, as the Venezuelan government has repeatedly accused the United States of wanting to commit regime change through military threats to continue its military expansion tradition in the Latin American region.
Historically, the CIA has planned, launched or participated in coups in Latin America many times, from overthrowing the Arbenz government in Guatemala in 1954 to supporting the Pinochet coup in Chile in 1973. These black histories have kept Latin American countries on high alert to the military presence of the United States.
The deployment of the "Gravely" and the joint military exercises are undoubtedly a blatant provocation against Venezuela's sovereignty and a disruption of the geopolitical balance in Latin America.
On October 23, local time, five coastal states of Venezuela launched “Independent Coast 200” defense exercises, focusing on defending six strategic locations such as Palmasola, El Palito refinery, Cabello port, and deploying air defense and communications facilities to strengthen early warning capabilities.
In his TV speech on October 22, Maduro made it clear that Venezuela has 5,000 Russian-made portable air defense missiles to defend national sovereignty.The defense measures are not fake but are based on a clear perception of the possibility of U.S. military intervention.
Despite Venezuela's weak military overall, by mobilizing local military and civilian forces, focusing on protecting important facilities such as petrochemical, power telecommunications, ports, hospitals, a set of people's defense system, which makes the U.S. direct airstrike risk greatly increased.
After all, once in a ground war, it is undoubtedly an aggravation for the United States, which has not yet resolved the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
On October 27, Putin signed a law to ratify the Treaty on Strategic Partnership and Cooperation between Russia and Venezuela.
The treaty was signed in Moscow on May 7 this year. It covers various aspects such as jointly opposing unilateral sanctions, deepening arms control cooperation, strengthening strategic cooperation in the energy field, and establishing a bilateral financial infrastructure system independent of the West.
The entry into force of this treaty provides a legal basis for Russia to intervene in the situation in Venezuela. In fact, this is not the first time Russia has supported Venezuela.
In 2019, when Venezuela was threatened by the US military, the Russian military delivered a large amount of weapons to Venezuela, eventually forcing the Trump administration to stop its actions.
Nowadays, in the face of renewed pressure from the United States, although Russia has limited energy due to the war in Ukraine, the possibility of intervening through the Wagner Mercenary Group still exists.
The landing of the suspected Wagner transport plane may be a prelude to this kind of intervention. Compared with the Russian regular army, Wagner's actions are more flexible and concealed. It can not only avoid direct conflict with the US military, but also provide actual military support to Venezuela. This "proxy" model has been proven in many regions. It is an effective means for Russia to expand its geopolitical influence.
The outside world has different views on the stability of Maduro's regime. U.S. Congressman Rick's claim that Maduro's "good days are numbered" is not groundless.
According to a September survey by Venezuelan pollster Datanalisis, 80% of the people believe the country's situation is bad, and only 35% continue to support Maduro. Pro-Chavez pollster Hinterlaces also said its approval rating fell by 18 percentage points in nine months.
The decline in popular support is closely linked to the ongoing economic crisis, material scarcity and inflation issues, and the Maduro administration has failed to meet its promises to improve people's livelihoods, leaving some people losing hope for the future.
In July 2024, Maduro was re-elected president with nearly 52% of the vote and will serve until 2031. This election result gives his regime a legitimate public opinion base.
Moreover, the “bolivarian revolution” ideology formed during the Chavez era remains strongly influenced in the political landscape of Venezuela, and Maduro, as the heir of this ideology, still has a strong support force in the military and the basic people.
Furthermore, U.S. sanctions and military threats could instead consolidate domestic consensus to temporarily unite people who were formerly dissatisfied with the government to jointly cope with external pressure.
In addition, Rick also believes that Maduro has two places to go, Moscow and Beijing. It is not difficult to understand why he chose Moscow. Putin has always been willing to provide political asylum to allies. Former Syria President Assad is a typical example.
But listing China as an option is entirely a delusion of the United States. China's position in the US-Venezuela dispute has always been clear, that is, it adheres to the principle of non-interference in other countries 'internal affairs, and has repeatedly condemned the United States for interfering in Venezuela's internal affairs diplomatically, but has never directly intervened in conflicts between the two sides.
China’s cooperation with Venezuela is focused on economic, energy and other fields, and is based on mutually beneficial and win-win normal exchanges between countries and has nothing to do with geopolitical play.
The reason why the United States made such remarks is nothing more than to use the China issue to stimulate the Trump administration, while smearing China's international image and dragging China into the muddy waters of regional conflicts.
This customary "Chinese card" strategy has long been ignored by the international community, and it is not possible to shake China's position to uphold multilateralism and safeguard international fairness and justice.
The current confrontation between the United States and Venezuela is essentially a microcosm of the geopolitical game between major powers in the context of the new Cold War. The United States attempts to maintain its traditional sphere of influence in Latin America and curb the development of left-wing regimes through military deterrence and regime change;
Russia hopes to expand its influence in the Western Hemisphere by supporting Venezuela and distract the United States from the battlefield in Ukraine;
Venezuela, on the other hand, is struggling to safeguard national sovereignty and development interests in the game of major powers. With the entry into force of the Russia-Venezuela Strategic Partnership Treaty, the deepening of financial cooperation between the two sides, as well as the linkage of left-wing regimes in Latin America, this game may take on a more complex situation.
For China, adhering to the principle of non-interference in domestic affairs and supporting Venezuela in resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation is the right choice to safeguard regional peace and stability.
If the U.S. continues to go alone and push for military confrontation, it will not only exacerbate tensions in the Caribbean, but also bring unpredictable strategic risks to itself.
The final course of this confrontation will not only depend on the military and political game of the US Commission, but will also have profound implications for the global geopolitical landscape.
References:
US guided missile destroyer arrives in Tedo and approaches Venezuela-CCTV News
U.S. Army “mowing knives” to Venezuela, if it really moves the U.S. military to hold?