During the Cold War of the last century, the United States exhausted the Soviet Union with a set of "combination punches": ideological infiltration, economic sanctions, and arms race. In the end, the Soviet Union itself could not hold on and collapsed in 1991.
In the end, the Soviet Union fell and the United States became the only "boss". Americans naturally feel that this strategy is effective. Now that they see the rise of China, the pressure is rising again, so they have used the old routine again. Economic suppression, technological blockade, and geographical provocation look no different from the one they used to treat the Soviet Union back then.
But the problem is, China is not the Soviet Union. In 2021, former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has long publicly stated that China will not collapse like the Soviet Union. In fact, behind this sentence lies a profound judgment on the differences between China and the United States.
The United States is trying to treat a new opponent in the old way, which reflects, in fact, a way of dependency. The past has won once, thinking that it can win again. But the times have changed, the world has changed, between China and the Soviet Union, is not a version of the story at all.
The Soviet Union itself collapsed, but the United States just pushed it
Let's first look at the situation of the Soviet Union in those days. From the outside, the Soviet Union was a big country with nuclear weapons, military technology, and a large territory. But the real trouble is not outside, but inside. The problem of the Soviet Union is rooted in the double loosening of system and ideology.
At the time, the social atmosphere in the Soviet Union had become cracked, the young people’s confidence in the country had declined, and Gorbachev’s reforms were very chaotic.
The upper levels call for reform, but the lower levels cannot keep up. Once many policies are introduced, they will make society more chaotic. There is no unified direction and no clear goals, and in the end, everyone protects themselves.
The United States certainly played a role in this process. On the one hand, it continued to infiltrate through public opinion. Western media often promoted Western lifestyles into the Soviet Union and instilled Western values in it. In the 1980s, Soviet youth had already been influenced by the West.
On the other hand, external blockade cut off the Soviet Union's connection with key technologies, further tightening the already fragile economy. Especially in armaments, the Soviet Union invested heavily, but domestic consumption and people's livelihood were suppressed for a long time, and social contradictions were increasing.
In the later period, the Soviet economy could no longer hold on. There are also problems in the political leadership. The reform went too quickly and there was no buffer. As a result, instead of saving the economy, it caused greater social unrest.
In the end, it was not the United States that defeated the Soviet Union, but the Soviet Union itself that collapsed.
So, the reason America won in that year was because the opponent was making mistakes.It was not how smart the United States was, it was the Soviet Union itself that had problems.
China is not the Soviet Union.
Looking at China now, the United States wants to use the same method to suppress it. But the problem is that China is not following the old path of the Soviet Union. China and the Soviet Union are completely different in key points such as internal governance, economic logic and social identity.
China has no ideological and cultural rupture like the Soviet Union. Although it also faces the impact of external culture, China society has a strong sense of identity with its own traditions.
Whether it is family concepts, national concepts, or social responsibility, they all have a relatively solid foundation. These things cannot be shaken by external influences for a moment.
Secondly, China's reform is gradual, with pilot projects first and steady progress, rather than "one size fits all" like the Soviet Union. This allows China to maintain basic stability and sense of direction in the face of external pressure.
Another, China's economy is open, but it is not completely dependent on the outside world. In areas that have been suppressed, China has begun to attach importance to independent research and development, and the direction has always been clear. In the face of technological blockade, China is not waiting for others to let go, but finding ways to solve the problem by itself.
In terms of trade, the United States has been trying to suppress China over the years by imposing tariffs and restricting exports, but has not achieved the desired results.
China's economy did not collapse because of this, but accelerated the pace of adjustment in some areas. In recent years, the United States has made many moves, but China has not lost ground like the Soviet Union.
More importantly, China did not fall into the trap of the arms race.The Soviet Union crashed the economy because of its too large military investment.
However, China is very restrained in this regard, emphasizing defensive development, rather than competing with the United States to compete with who has the more warships and the farther missiles. This kind of strategic determination was not available in the Soviet Union at that time.
Therefore, there is a lot of space within China. Compared with the Soviet Union, which was already shaky internally, China has a more stable foundation, a more cohesive society, and a more adjustable system.
Winning the Cold War once does not mean winning again.
The United States now faces China in the way it is said to be an old set. The high-tech field has its neck, obstacles to trade, and creates a geographical atmosphere of tension.
The technological blockade has allowed China to accelerate the pace of independent research and development, and the Chinese market is large enough, and its ability to adjust internally is not weak. On geopolitical issues, China showed relative restraint and did not take the bait easily.
From the perspective of the United States, they hope to drag China into a passive situation through long-term consumption. But the problem is that this strategy comes with its own costs.
The outflow of America's own industries, tense allies, and internal political divisions are all intensifying. If too many resources are used to contain China, it is likely to bring more countereffects.
More realistically, today’s world is no longer the structure of the Cold War era, and many countries are reluctant to stand aside.
The United States wants to form cliques, but there are not many responders. Through multilateral cooperation and the promotion of interconnection, China has won a lot of international trust.
This also explains why the words of Li Xianlong, saying that "China will not collapse like the Soviet Union," are in fact a rational judgment of reality, not for whom to speak, but to see the bottom line and logic of both.
American competition is a lasting war.
Nowadays, the competition between China and the United States will not soon have results, nor is it a simple "who wins who loses".This is a structural rivalry between the two great powers, involving economics, science and technology, security, culture and other aspects.
China has its own goals and rhythms, and the United States has its own interests and concerns.The key is to see who can stay stable in the process, who can handle internal problems better, and who can convince the world more effectively.
China is not the Soviet Union of the Cold War period, has its own development logic, has the ability to self-adjust, has institutional continuity and social foundation.
This game is destined to be long-term. If the United States blindly bets on the strategy of "consuming China to death", it is likely to fall into self-consumption.
Therefore, it is a misjudgment to simply compare China with the Soviet Union. What Lee Hsien Loong said actually reminds everyone: history will not simply repeat itself, times have changed, and the way to solve problems has to be changed.
The world is no longer a chessboard for the Cold War
Looking back, the United States once won through the Cold War, but that was a product of a specific historical background. Nowadays, facing China, it is far more difficult for the United States to use the original script again than it was back then.
What really affects the direction of China-US relations is not who is more, but who is more.This competition is not just the competition between the two countries, but also the comprehensive contrast of institutional, strategic, cultural and social resilience.
Li Xianlong's judgment is not a blank word, but a clear awareness of reality. China will not disappear like the Soviet Union, and the United States cannot simply replicate the victory of the Cold War. A real fight has just begun. Who can laugh to the end, do not watch who sounds loud, but see who can really steadfast the way.
The reference information:
Regarding China, Li Xianlong also said the big truth! — Long An Wuhan 2021-02-01 13:44
"China will not collapse like the Soviet Union, and a comprehensive confrontation between China and the United States will lead to..."-The Paper 2021-01-30 22:26