Text | Shen Remarks
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China and Russia have more than 4,300 kilometers of border.
Geographical borders, economic cooperation, and political mutual trust can be regarded as a rare "back-to-back" model in today's international relations.
But the question now is, how long can this "back" be reliable?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been going on for almost four years, at the beginning of the war, many people thought that Russia would quickly seize Ukraine, and as a result today, the front is still stuck in the Donbass zone, neither side can withdraw.
On the surface, Russia is still holding on, but in fact, the economic pressure is very high. The United States has recently imposed a new round of sanctions on several major Russian energy companies, and the European Union has also launched the 19th round of sanctions, basically making Russia's access to foreign exchange is almost closed.
According to the data of the Russian Ministry of Finance, Russia's fiscal deficit this year is close to 4.2 trillion rubles, which is nearly 50 billion US dollars. It is indeed not a small amount. It is difficult to support the military expenditure and social operation of the whole country just by selling resources.
As we all know, oil and natural gas are Russia's lifeblood, but now that prices have come down, there are fewer and fewer buyers. Even the traditional European market is looking for ways to replace Russian energy.
Against this background, problems in Russia's Far East have also begun to emerge slowly. The Far East covers about 7 million square kilometers and covers an area of more than half of the entire China. However, it has a very sparse population and has always been rich in resources but underdeveloped. It is the most easily ignored corner of Russia's geographical map.
But for China, this land is very important.
Oil, natural gas, coal, timber, and minerals in the Far East are all important supplements to China's industrial system, and the oil used in the refineries in the Northeast, with a considerable portion coming from the Russian Far East, pipelines deliver 24 hours a day.
China imports hundreds of millions of tons of crude oil from Russia every year, and it relies on this transport system, especially the Siberian "power" pipeline, which is one of the vital lines of China's energy security.
Moreover, China and Russia's border trade, forestry cooperation, cross-border railway and road bridge construction have been deepening in recent years, the settlement of the RMB has gradually replaced the dollar, and the economic ties between China and Russia are becoming more and more close.
Russia's energy exports, China is the largest buyer, Far East resources shipped to the northeast, after processing and then flow into the national market, the whole chain has been in operation for many years, each other can not be separated from each other.
But the problem is that the current internal instability in Russia, especially in the Far East, is likely to see unpredictable changes in the future, and if the control of the central government falls, local forces, especially the local oligarchs who control oil fields, mines and transportation channels, are likely to emerge from the central command and self-establishment gateway.
In history, the situation when the Soviet Union collapsed was very typical. Local republics declared independence one after another, and the central government simply couldn't take care of it.
If a Soviet-like disintegration really occurs in Russia, the direction of the Far East becomes very crucial, the land is scant, rich in resources, but lacks infrastructure and population support, and once it loses the support of the central government, it is likely to fall into a power vacuum.
Various forces may also take the opportunity to enter, including some western countries in the name of "humanitarian intervention" and even bringing troops in to establish so-called "safe zones".
For China, this situation can absolutely not happen, once the Far East turns out, the first one to be affected is the northeast of China, the border line is so long, and the management is extremely difficult.
And if there is a massive flow of refugees, weapons smuggling, black market trading, the stability of the Northeast will be severely impacted, let alone those energy pipelines, transportation channels, once interrupted, the entire northeast industrial chain will be affected.
Another point that cannot be ignored is the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific. If a power vacuum occurs in the Russian Far East, the United States is likely to take the opportunity to expand its influence in this area.
From Alaska to the Bering Strait, to Japan and South Korea, the U.S. military is densely populated with bases. Once they find a reason to intervene in the Far East, China's geopolitical security pressure will rise sharply.
Historically, in the middle of the nineteenth century, during the internal trouble of the Qing Dynasty, Russia took over large areas of land north of the Hunan River and east of the Ussuri River, with an area of more than one million square kilometers, through the Treaty of Qing and the Treaty of Beijing.
We have experienced this example of "big countries taking advantage of chaos to take land" ourselves. Now that the roles have been reversed, China has no plans to expand, but it cannot be unprepared for the complicated situation in the future.
China in 2004 through the border agreement with Russia thoroughly solved the problem of historical legacy, the border issue has been legalized, institutionalized, now is not the time to "take back what land", but to consider how in the situation changes, stabilize the borders, safeguard national security, ensure energy imports do not interrupt, avoid the northeast becoming a turbulent frontline.
Judging from the layout in recent years, China has been quietly making preparations to strengthen border patrols, increase the density of border posts, and improve Incident Response Service capabilities. These are not temporary actions.
Investments in the Far East are also continuing, not only to buy resources, but also to include infrastructure construction, cross-border e-commerce, logistics parks, agricultural products processing bases, etc., through economic means to strengthen ties with the Far East, is undoubtedly a more effective stabilizer than mere military deployment.
China is also pushing for energy import diversification, in addition to Russia, is also looking for more sources in Central Asia and West Asia, the maritime transportation capacity is also improved, no longer put all the eggs in one basket, such as the construction of channels such as China, China, China, China, China and China, is to have more options on land transportation.
If Russia can hold on and continue to exist, that is certainly the most ideal situation. Cooperation can continue, pipelines can operate normally, and trade can grow steadily.
But if Russia really cannot withstand it and there is division, turmoil or even partial loss of control, China must also have a plan.
It's not that we deliberately want to interfere, but that we want to ensure our border security, energy stability, and no chaos in the Northeast. When necessary, we should also deal with emerging local forces and maintain order through economic cooperation. As long as the other party is willing to do business, there is room for negotiation.
“Friends come with good wine, wolves come with hunting guns.”
There is also a reality that has to be mentioned, that is, the Russian Far East itself has a trend of "looking eastward." It is already far away from Moscow, with limited central financial support, and many construction projects rely on China funds and technology.
Putin has held the Eastern Economic Forum every year since 2015, with the purpose of attracting investment from Asian countries, especially China. However, after the war, the capital chain of many projects broke and many infrastructure construction stalled.
In the Far East, the population was less, young people preferred to run to the West, left mostly the elderly and primary workers, population loss, economic stagnation, project shell, these factors overlap, once the central finance further shrunk, the place is easier to get out of control.
What we have to do is be fully prepared, play the cards well, we do not bother, but do not fear.
It is always good to plan ahead.
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References:
Russia-Ukraine conflict Ukrainian president says he will formulate a ceasefire plan Russia has not yet responded
2025-10-28 09:43 · CCTV News